本文選題：CPI與PPI背離 + 財(cái)政政策��； 參考：《價(jià)格理論與實(shí)踐》2017年04期

【摘要】：自2008年國際金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,國際國內(nèi)環(huán)境出現(xiàn)新變化,國內(nèi)價(jià)格水平變動也出現(xiàn)了新的特征:CPI與PPI的走勢出現(xiàn)長時(shí)間的背離,達(dá)歷史新高。本文基于國際國內(nèi)現(xiàn)階段特征背景,綜合了我國宏觀貨幣政策、財(cái)政政策以及國際價(jià)格變化因素,建立VAR模型來探究我國CPI與PPI的背離原因。研究表明:國際商品價(jià)格下跌是我國現(xiàn)階段價(jià)格指數(shù)背離的主要原因;央行近年來寬松貨幣政策一定程度上加大了價(jià)格指數(shù)的背離;而財(cái)政政策的影響較小,短期內(nèi)緩和了CPI與PPI的背離,從長期看其影響并不穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, there have been new changes in the international and domestic environment, as well as new features in the domestic price level. The trend of PPI and PPI has deviated for a long time, reaching a record high. Based on the characteristic background of international and domestic present stage, this paper synthesizes the factors of China's macro-monetary policy, fiscal policy and international price change, and establishes the VAR model to explore the reasons for the deviation between China's CPI and PPI. The research shows that the international commodity price decline is the main reason for the deviation of China's price index at the present stage; the central bank's loose monetary policy in recent years has increased the deviation of the price index to a certain extent; and the fiscal policy has little effect on it. In the short term, moderates the deviation between CPI and PPI, and its impact is unstable in the long run.
【作者單位】： 山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);
【分類號】：F424;F726

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