本文選題：省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度 + 時(shí)空效應(yīng)��； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源、環(huán)境之間的矛盾較突出,社會(huì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展受到了威脅。因此研究能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境三個(gè)系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展有著重要的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。首先,從能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境三個(gè)維度構(gòu)建了省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用綜合-距離型協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)模型測(cè)算出2006~2014年我國(guó)30個(gè)省份的協(xié)調(diào)度并對(duì)其進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):我國(guó)整體3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度整體上呈上升趨勢(shì),其中2010年為從嚴(yán)重失調(diào)等級(jí)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橹卸仁д{(diào)等級(jí)的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn);各省份的3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度及其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)存在明顯差異。其次,運(yùn)用變異系數(shù)法、ESDA、空間馬爾科夫鏈方法對(duì)省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度的時(shí)空效應(yīng)和演化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了分析。運(yùn)用變異系數(shù)法對(duì)3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度的區(qū)域差異進(jìn)行了研究,結(jié)果表明:整體來(lái)看,各省間的3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度發(fā)展差異具有縮小的趨勢(shì);按常規(guī)6大區(qū)域來(lái)看,不同區(qū)域內(nèi)省份間的協(xié)調(diào)度差異隨時(shí)間的變化具有不同的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),變化幅度也不盡相同。運(yùn)用ESDA法研究了省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度的空間格局與空間相關(guān)性,結(jié)果表明:3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度在全局上呈正向空間相關(guān);局部存在差異化的空間集聚模式,其中西北和西南區(qū)域?yàn)椤暗?低集聚”模式,華東和華南區(qū)域?yàn)椤案?高集聚”模式;逐年比較2006~2014年的空間聚類模式圖可以從時(shí)間角度探索省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度的空間聚類模式的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),發(fā)現(xiàn)“低-低集聚”模式的省份數(shù)量有縮減的趨勢(shì),“高-高集聚”模式有漸漸向南擴(kuò)散、數(shù)量增多的趨勢(shì)。然后,運(yùn)用空間馬爾科夫鏈方法研究了省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度在受當(dāng)期空間滯后影響下的一步狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移條件概率,即其時(shí)空演化趨勢(shì),結(jié)果表明:省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)受其空間滯后影響較大,主要表現(xiàn)為較高值的空間滯后對(duì)其有正向的影響。通過(guò)LISA馬爾科夫鏈方法對(duì)省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度空間聚類模式的時(shí)空演化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了量化研究,發(fā)現(xiàn):四種聚類模式相對(duì)穩(wěn)定性存在差異,“高-高集聚”模式的相對(duì)穩(wěn)定性最強(qiáng),“低-低集聚”模式的最弱;同時(shí),從轉(zhuǎn)移路徑的分類來(lái)看,省域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度空間聚類模式的主要轉(zhuǎn)移路徑類型為飽和型轉(zhuǎn)移路徑,即存在溢出效應(yīng)。然后,基于協(xié)調(diào)度的時(shí)空效應(yīng),構(gòu)建了動(dòng)態(tài)空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)未來(lái)5年省域3E系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了預(yù)警研究。結(jié)果表明:各省的3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度均呈現(xiàn)逐年上升趨勢(shì);處于重警級(jí)別的區(qū)域范圍逐漸向西收攏縮小,并將被中警和輕警級(jí)別替代;處于輕警級(jí)別的區(qū)域范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,并向內(nèi)陸和北面轉(zhuǎn)移擴(kuò)散;到2019年,將有四個(gè)省的協(xié)調(diào)度率先達(dá)到無(wú)警級(jí)別,分別是山東、浙江、福建和江西,且都屬于華東區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:At present, the contradiction between economic development, energy and environment is prominent, and the sustainable development of society is threatened. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment. Firstly, the evaluation index system of coordination degree of provincial 3e system is constructed from three dimensions of energy, economy and environment, and the coordination degree of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2014 is calculated and analyzed empirically by using the comprehensive distance coordination degree evaluation model. The results show that the overall coordination degree of the 3e system in China is on the rise, among which the year 2010 is the turning point from the serious maladjustment grade to the moderate one, and there are obvious differences in the coordination degree and the development trend of the 3e system in different provinces. Secondly, the space-time effect and evolution trend of the coordination degree of 3e system in provincial area are analyzed by using the coefficient of variation method (ESDA) and the spatial Markov chain method. The variation coefficient method is used to study the regional difference of 3e system coordination degree. The results show that the development difference of 3e system coordination degree among provinces has the trend of narrowing; The difference of the degree of coordination between provinces in different regions has different trends with time, and the range of change is also different. The spatial pattern and spatial correlation of coordination degree of provincial 3e system are studied by using ESDA method. The results show that the coordination degree of the 3e system is positively spatially correlated globally, and there is a differential spatial aggregation mode. The northwest and southwest regions are the "low-low agglomeration" model, and the east and south China regions are "high-high agglomeration" models. Comparing the spatial cluster pattern map from 2006 to 2014 year by year, we can explore the development trend of the spatial clustering model of the coordination degree of 3e system in provincial area from the angle of time, and find that the number of provinces with "low-low agglomeration" mode has a tendency to decrease. The pattern of high-high agglomeration has the tendency of gradually spreading southward and increasing the quantity. Then, the spatial Markov chain method is used to study the probability of the one-step state transition condition of the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system under the influence of the current spatial lag, that is, the temporal and spatial evolution trend. The results show that the development trend of the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system is greatly affected by its spatial lag, which mainly shows that the higher value of the spatial lag has a positive effect on it. Based on the LISA Markov chain method, the temporal and spatial evolution trends of spatial cluster model of coordination degree of provincial 3e system are quantitatively studied. It is found that the relative stability of the four clustering models is different, and the relative stability of the "high-high agglomeration" model is the strongest. At the same time, according to the classification of transfer path, the main transfer path type of spatial cluster model of 3e system coordination degree in provincial area is saturated transfer path, that is, there exists spillover effect. Then, based on the spatiotemporal effect of the coordination degree, the dynamic spatial panel data model is constructed to predict the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system in the next five years, and on this basis, the early warning research is carried out. The results show that the degree of coordination of 3e system in each province is increasing year by year; the area at the level of heavy warning gradually narrows to the west and will be replaced by the level of middle police and light police; the area at the level of light police is expanding continuously. By 2019, four provinces, namely Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi, will be the first to reach the level of no warning, and all of them will belong to the eastern China region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X2;F426.2;F127

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