發(fā)布時間：2018-04-09 04:34

  本文選題：就業(yè)乘數(shù)　切入點：空間聯(lián)立方程　出處：《財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文通過理論模型揭示了制造業(yè)就業(yè)與服務業(yè)就業(yè)之間存在交互乘數(shù)及空間溢出效應。利用中國2003-2013年285個地級及以上城市的數(shù)據(jù),建立聯(lián)立方程模型,基于不同空間權(quán)重矩陣,使用GS3SLS方法進行事實檢驗。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):制造業(yè)就業(yè)與服務業(yè)就業(yè)之間存在雙向促進作用機制,城市制造業(yè)就業(yè)每增加1%,會帶來服務業(yè)就業(yè)0.45%~0.47%的提升,其中,生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)的受益最大;服務業(yè)就業(yè)每增加1%,會帶來制造業(yè)就業(yè)1.15%~1.16%的提升。城市之間制造業(yè)就業(yè)和服務業(yè)就業(yè)均存在正向的空間溢出效應,而二者的空間交互溢出效應為負,表現(xiàn)為發(fā)達地區(qū)擁有高端制造業(yè)的同時,會吸引周邊地區(qū)從事服務業(yè)的勞動力遷入。進一步的分析表明:隨著時間的推移,服務業(yè)就業(yè)對制造業(yè)就業(yè)的乘數(shù)效應占主導,制造業(yè)的發(fā)展愈發(fā)依靠服務業(yè)的不斷完善,二者的空間交互溢出效應逐漸減弱。政策上,促進勞動力的流動、深化市場化改革、充分發(fā)揮大城市的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟、完善城市結(jié)構(gòu)體系、加強交通基礎設施建設和公共服務有助于提升第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)之間相互創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位的能力。
[Abstract]:The theoretical model reveals the existence of interaction multiplier and the spatial spillover effect between employment service and manufacturing industry employment. By 2003-2013 years China 285 prefecture level and above city data, establishing a simultaneous equation model based on different spatial weight matrix, using the GS3SLS method. Verifying the facts found bidirectional promotion mechanism between manufacturing industry city employment and employment in service industry, manufacturing employment increased 1%, 0.45%~0.47% will bring employment service industry promotion, the biggest benefit of productive service industry; service industry employment increased by 1%, manufacturing employment will bring 1.15%~1.16% improvement. There are positive spillover effect between manufacturing and service employment in city employment, and the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is negative, performance for the developed area has high-end manufacturing industry at the same time, will attract the surrounding area in service The service industry labor migration. Further analysis shows that with the passage of time, the multiplier effect of employment in service industry of manufacturing employment is dominant, the development of manufacturing industry and constantly improve the service industry increasingly rely on the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is gradually weakened. The policy, promoting the mobility of labor, deepening market reform give full play to the big city, economy of scale, improving the structure of the city traffic system, strengthen the construction of infrastructure and public services to help improve the second, third industry are creating jobs.

【作者單位】： 中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院;北京大學經(jīng)濟學院;
【基金】：中國人民大學2016年度拔尖創(chuàng)新人才培育資助計劃項目 國家社會科學重大基金項目“擴大我國服務業(yè)對外開放的路徑與戰(zhàn)略研究”(14ZDA084) 國家社科基金青年項目“供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革下中國收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與資源配置效率改善研究”(16CJL014)
【分類號】：F424;F719

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1 李煜;我國制造業(yè)就業(yè)對服務業(yè)就業(yè)的乘數(shù)效應分析[D];東北財經(jīng)大學;2016年

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本文編號：1724891