本文選題：就業(yè)乘數(shù)　切入點(diǎn)：空間聯(lián)立方程　出處：《財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文通過(guò)理論模型揭示了制造業(yè)就業(yè)與服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)之間存在交互乘數(shù)及空間溢出效應(yīng)。利用中國(guó)2003-2013年285個(gè)地級(jí)及以上城市的數(shù)據(jù),建立聯(lián)立方程模型,基于不同空間權(quán)重矩陣,使用GS3SLS方法進(jìn)行事實(shí)檢驗(yàn)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):制造業(yè)就業(yè)與服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)之間存在雙向促進(jìn)作用機(jī)制,城市制造業(yè)就業(yè)每增加1%,會(huì)帶來(lái)服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)0.45%~0.47%的提升,其中,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的受益最大;服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)每增加1%,會(huì)帶來(lái)制造業(yè)就業(yè)1.15%~1.16%的提升。城市之間制造業(yè)就業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)均存在正向的空間溢出效應(yīng),而二者的空間交互溢出效應(yīng)為負(fù),表現(xiàn)為發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)擁有高端制造業(yè)的同時(shí),會(huì)吸引周邊地區(qū)從事服務(wù)業(yè)的勞動(dòng)力遷入。進(jìn)一步的分析表明:隨著時(shí)間的推移,服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)對(duì)制造業(yè)就業(yè)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)占主導(dǎo),制造業(yè)的發(fā)展愈發(fā)依靠服務(wù)業(yè)的不斷完善,二者的空間交互溢出效應(yīng)逐漸減弱。政策上,促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力的流動(dòng)、深化市場(chǎng)化改革、充分發(fā)揮大城市的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、完善城市結(jié)構(gòu)體系、加強(qiáng)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和公共服務(wù)有助于提升第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)之間相互創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位的能力。
[Abstract]:The theoretical model reveals the existence of interaction multiplier and the spatial spillover effect between employment service and manufacturing industry employment. By 2003-2013 years China 285 prefecture level and above city data, establishing a simultaneous equation model based on different spatial weight matrix, using the GS3SLS method. Verifying the facts found bidirectional promotion mechanism between manufacturing industry city employment and employment in service industry, manufacturing employment increased 1%, 0.45%~0.47% will bring employment service industry promotion, the biggest benefit of productive service industry; service industry employment increased by 1%, manufacturing employment will bring 1.15%~1.16% improvement. There are positive spillover effect between manufacturing and service employment in city employment, and the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is negative, performance for the developed area has high-end manufacturing industry at the same time, will attract the surrounding area in service The service industry labor migration. Further analysis shows that with the passage of time, the multiplier effect of employment in service industry of manufacturing employment is dominant, the development of manufacturing industry and constantly improve the service industry increasingly rely on the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is gradually weakened. The policy, promoting the mobility of labor, deepening market reform give full play to the big city, economy of scale, improving the structure of the city traffic system, strengthen the construction of infrastructure and public services to help improve the second, third industry are creating jobs.

【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)2016年度拔尖創(chuàng)新人才培育資助計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)重大基金項(xiàng)目“擴(kuò)大我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)外開(kāi)放的路徑與戰(zhàn)略研究”(14ZDA084) 國(guó)家社科基金青年項(xiàng)目“供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革下中國(guó)收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與資源配置效率改善研究”(16CJL014)
【分類號(hào)】：F424;F719

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