本文選題：卷煙產(chǎn)品　切入點(diǎn)：市場　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入了“新常態(tài)”,我國煙草產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展也面臨“增長速度回落、工商庫存增加、結(jié)構(gòu)空間變窄、需求拐點(diǎn)逼近”四大難題,因此,基于市場的真實(shí)需求,推進(jìn)專賣體制下卷煙營銷市場化取向改革,促進(jìn)行業(yè)在新常態(tài)下穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展,是當(dāng)前有效破解難題、應(yīng)對挑戰(zhàn)的重要路徑,而推行市場化取向改革的關(guān)鍵和重點(diǎn),在于對卷煙產(chǎn)品市場需求預(yù)測的研究和把握。本文以A市為例,通過對A市卷煙市場狀況進(jìn)行分析研究,對A市消費(fèi)者進(jìn)行了調(diào)研,通過調(diào)研結(jié)果選擇需求預(yù)測影響因素,來對比和選擇適合的需求預(yù)測模型,并運(yùn)用模型預(yù)測未來兩年卷煙銷量,得出預(yù)測結(jié)論�？茖W(xué)準(zhǔn)確的卷煙市場需求預(yù)測,不僅是確保卷煙市場需求端和供給端有效銜接的基礎(chǔ),也是提高卷煙商業(yè)企業(yè)自身卷煙銷售、配送、倉儲等日常經(jīng)營效率,提升卷煙經(jīng)營效益的現(xiàn)實(shí)需要。因此,卷煙商業(yè)企業(yè)如何在現(xiàn)行營銷模式下,做好本轄區(qū)卷煙市場需求預(yù)測,科學(xué)預(yù)測卷煙銷量,促進(jìn)貨源購進(jìn)與市場需求的匹配度,保證卷煙市場按需供應(yīng)就變得極為重要。
[Abstract]:At present, the economic development of our country has entered the "new normal", and the development of the tobacco industry in our country is faced with four major problems: "the growth rate falls back, the industrial and commercial inventory increases, the structural space becomes narrower, and the demand inflection point approaches". Therefore, based on the real demand of the market,To promote the market-oriented reform of cigarette marketing under the monopoly system, and to promote the steady and healthy development of the industry under the new normal, is an important way to solve the difficult problems and meet the challenges effectively, and the key and key point of carrying out the market-oriented reform is to carry out the market-oriented reform.It is to the cigarette product market demand forecast research and the grasp.This article takes A city as an example, through the analysis and research to A city cigarette market situation, carries on the investigation to the A city consumer, through the investigation result selects the demand forecast influence factor, compares and selects the suitable demand forecast model.The model is used to predict the cigarette sales in the next two years, and the prediction results are obtained.Scientific and accurate prediction of cigarette market demand is not only the basis to ensure the effective link between the demand and supply side of the cigarette market, but also to improve the daily management efficiency of cigarette sales, distribution, warehousing and so on.The realistic need to improve the benefit of cigarette management.Therefore, under the current marketing mode, how to make a good forecast of cigarette market demand, scientifically predict the cigarette sales volume, promote the matching degree between the source purchase and the market demand, and ensure the on-demand supply in the cigarette market becomes extremely important.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.8

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本文編號：1714001