本文選題：碳減排　切入點(diǎn)：碳配額分配　出處：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：哥本哈根氣候會(huì)議上,中國(guó)提出了2020年單位GDP碳排放量下降40%-45%的減排目標(biāo),為確保2020年中國(guó)碳排放目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn),2017年1月5日,國(guó)家能源局發(fā)布《能源發(fā)展“十三五”規(guī)劃》提出,清潔能源將是“十三五”能源供應(yīng)增量的主體,“十三五”期間,非化石能源消費(fèi)比重將提高到15%以上,天然氣消費(fèi)比重力爭(zhēng)達(dá)10%,煤炭消費(fèi)比重降到58%以下,2020年把能源消費(fèi)總量控制在50億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤以內(nèi)。碳減排的實(shí)施勢(shì)必要先進(jìn)行碳配額的分配,而當(dāng)前關(guān)于碳配額分配的影響研究主要集中在分配的原則、方法、影響因素、對(duì)碳市場(chǎng)交易的影響等方面,而關(guān)于碳配額分配后對(duì)中國(guó)煤炭空間輸送格局的影響研究尚屬空白。本文結(jié)合碳減排通過(guò)碳配額分配影響區(qū)域煤炭需求這一路徑,參考國(guó)際碳配額分配的歷史分配法理論,構(gòu)建包含歷史累積排放量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)度和技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平三個(gè)指標(biāo)的碳配額分配模型,在2020年煤炭消費(fèi)總量一定的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)指標(biāo)權(quán)重系數(shù)的不同設(shè)置不同的情境,基于保障和激勵(lì)原則進(jìn)行情境對(duì)比,最終確定各地區(qū)的碳配額分配方案。并在此基礎(chǔ)上,以動(dòng)力煤為例,使用IPCC清單法核算出在碳配額情境下各地區(qū)的動(dòng)力煤需求量,同時(shí)構(gòu)建回歸模型預(yù)測(cè)2020年中國(guó)的煤炭供給總量和無(wú)碳排放情境下需求總量。進(jìn)而利用空間均衡模型理論構(gòu)建中國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)空間輸送格局模型,通過(guò)無(wú)碳減排情境和碳減排情境下的對(duì)比,進(jìn)行中國(guó)煤炭輸送格局的影響研究。本文在碳配額分配及兩種情境下煤炭市場(chǎng)空間格局的對(duì)比結(jié)果表明:(1)北京、天津、上海、海南、甘肅以及寧夏等地區(qū)在基于歷史分配法的條件下,在動(dòng)力煤消費(fèi)的碳配額分配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占有優(yōu)勢(shì),河北、內(nèi)蒙古、遼寧、山東和河南等地處于劣勢(shì);(2)從供給端來(lái)看,遼吉3、遼吉4等地區(qū)的動(dòng)力煤在市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中處于劣勢(shì),而山西7、山西9等地區(qū)在市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占有優(yōu)勢(shì)。從需求端來(lái)看,動(dòng)力煤的輸送主要指向江蘇、浙江、廣東、福建等東部和南部地區(qū),表明這些地區(qū)的煤炭需求較為強(qiáng)烈,動(dòng)力煤需求價(jià)格較高;(3)通過(guò)不同情境的對(duì)比,煤炭區(qū)際間的調(diào)入調(diào)出存在空間套利的可能,不同供給地區(qū)的動(dòng)力煤輸送到不同需求地區(qū)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)是有差異的。本文認(rèn)為,在碳排放情境下,中國(guó)對(duì)碳配額的分配需兼顧公平和效率原則,鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)和技術(shù)進(jìn)步,地方政府應(yīng)取消對(duì)地方煤炭企業(yè)的保護(hù),完善煤炭市場(chǎng)交易機(jī)制,建設(shè)煤炭市場(chǎng)交易平臺(tái),提高煤炭市場(chǎng)信息的透明度,煤炭企業(yè)按照市場(chǎng)規(guī)則進(jìn)行交易,使社會(huì)收益最大化。
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen climate conference, China set a goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020. In order to ensure that China's carbon emissions target for 2020 is met, on January 5, 2017,The State Energy Administration issued the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, proposing that clean energy will be the main body of the energy supply increment in the 13th Five-Year Plan. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 15 percent.The proportion of natural gas consumption will reach 10 percent, the proportion of coal consumption will fall below 58 percent, and the total energy consumption will be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020.The implementation of carbon emission reduction is bound to start with the allocation of carbon quotas, and the current research on the impact of carbon quota allocation is mainly focused on the principles, methods, influencing factors, the impact on the carbon market trading, and so on.However, the study on the effect of carbon quota allocation on the spatial transport pattern of coal in China is still blank.Based on the path that carbon emission reduction affects regional coal demand through carbon quota allocation, this paper constructs a method including historical cumulative emissions by referring to the historical allocation theory of international carbon quota allocation.The carbon quota allocation model of the three indicators of industrial structure intensity and technological progress level, on the basis of the fixed total coal consumption in 2020, through the different setting of different situation of index weight coefficient, based on the guarantee and incentive principle to carry on the situation contrast.Finally, the carbon quota allocation scheme for each region is determined.On this basis, taking thermal coal as an example, the IPCC inventory method is used to calculate the coal demand in various regions under the situation of carbon quota, and a regression model is constructed to predict the total coal supply and the total demand under the non-carbon emission situation in 2020 in China.Then the spatial transport pattern model of China's coal market is constructed by using the spatial equilibrium model theory, and the influence of coal transport pattern in China is studied by comparing the carbon-free and carbon-reduction scenarios.In this paper, the results of carbon quota allocation and the comparison of spatial patterns of coal market in two situations show that: 1) Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan, Gansu and Ningxia are based on the historical allocation method.In the competition of carbon quota allocation for thermal coal consumption, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and Henan are at a disadvantage.) from the supply side, the thermal coal of Liaoji 3, Liaoji 4 and other regions are at a disadvantage in the market competition.And Shanxi 7, Shanxi 9 and other regions in the market competition has an advantage.From the point of view of the demand side, the transportation of thermal coal mainly points to the eastern and southern areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian, indicating that the demand for coal in these areas is relatively strong, and the price of thermal coal is relatively high.There is a possibility of arbitrage between different coal regions, and the competitive advantages of thermal coal transportation to different demand areas are different in different supply areas.This paper holds that in the context of carbon emissions, China's allocation of carbon quotas should take into account the principles of fairness and efficiency, encourage enterprises to upgrade their industrial structure and improve technology, and local governments should abolish the protection of local coal enterprises.Improve the coal market trading mechanism, build the coal market trading platform, improve the transparency of the coal market information, coal enterprises in accordance with the rules of the market transactions, so as to maximize social income.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X24;F426.21

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬海良;張紅艷;吳鳳平;;基于情景分析法的中國(guó)碳排放分配預(yù)測(cè)研究[J];軟科學(xué);2016年10期

2 劉勇;;政府免費(fèi)分配碳排放配額的法律性質(zhì)與中國(guó)對(duì)策——基于《補(bǔ)貼與反補(bǔ)貼措施協(xié)定》補(bǔ)貼構(gòu)成要件的分析[J];法商研究;2016年02期

3 龍濤;于汶加;代濤;李穎;邢佳韻;;中國(guó)在吉爾吉斯斯坦區(qū)域資源產(chǎn)業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)布局分析[J];資源科學(xué);2015年05期

4 陳建;;我國(guó)碳排放配額初始分配方式的法學(xué)探究——以行政法律關(guān)系為視角[J];西南石油大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2015年02期

5 車(chē)亮亮;韓雪;武春友;;中國(guó)煤炭流動(dòng)格局與利用效率的空間關(guān)聯(lián)分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)地理;2015年02期

6 王偉;王成金;;環(huán)渤海地區(qū)港口煤炭運(yùn)輸格局演變和動(dòng)力機(jī)制[J];自然資源學(xué)報(bào);2014年11期

7 車(chē)亮亮;韓雪;秦曉楠;武春友;;基于生態(tài)位理論的中國(guó)煤炭區(qū)域流動(dòng)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)[J];資源科學(xué);2014年10期

8 王宜強(qiáng);趙媛;;中國(guó)煤炭資源流源、匯地空間格局演變與內(nèi)部空間差異研究[J];地理科學(xué);2014年10期

9 段茂盛;龐韜;;全國(guó)統(tǒng)一碳排放權(quán)交易體系中的配額分配方式研究[J];武漢大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2014年05期

10 嵇昊威;趙媛;;長(zhǎng)三角高速鐵路網(wǎng)建設(shè)對(duì)江蘇省煤炭鐵路運(yùn)輸能力的影響[J];自然資源學(xué)報(bào);2014年02期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 叢威;我國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)能調(diào)控動(dòng)力機(jī)制及模式研究[D];中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)（北京）;2013年

2 陳紅霞;基于空間均衡的新城發(fā)展機(jī)理研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué);2008年

3 劉鴻雁;貿(mào)易自由化進(jìn)程中的中國(guó)奶制品貿(mào)易研究[D];中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院;2007年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前7條

1 陳宇光;我國(guó)區(qū)域碳排放市場(chǎng)總量控制與配額分配研究[D];中共浙江省委黨校;2014年

2 劉延靜;我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)供求狀況與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)研究[D];哈爾濱工程大學(xué);2010年

3 秦軍;煤炭市場(chǎng)及其穩(wěn)定供給的策略研究[D];浙江大學(xué);2009年

4 張玉梅;天然橡膠市場(chǎng)空間均衡模型研究[D];華南熱帶農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2006年

5 田書(shū)晶;我國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)供求分析及其價(jià)格研究[D];對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2006年

6 林晗;煤炭市場(chǎng)供需平衡分析及對(duì)策研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2006年

7 尹堅(jiān);中國(guó)肉產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)空間均衡研究[D];中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2003年

，

本文編號(hào)：1711633