本文關(guān)鍵詞：創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：自2009年創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市以來(lái),受到眾多投資者的青睞。但隨著年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)的披露和分析,其高盈利性和高投資價(jià)值的光環(huán)也在逐漸褪去。同時(shí)隨著當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整陣痛和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大,再加上創(chuàng)業(yè)板企業(yè)發(fā)展不穩(wěn)定、規(guī)模較小、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理意識(shí)淡薄、規(guī)章制度不健全等特征無(wú)疑使得它們所面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加凸顯。針對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板企業(yè)建立適當(dāng)?shù)呢?cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,完善企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系,幫助企業(yè)及早發(fā)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)解決問(wèn)題,使其在瞬息萬(wàn)變的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展,具有重要意義。同時(shí)對(duì)于有效引導(dǎo)創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展,促進(jìn)相關(guān)金融機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)展有效監(jiān)督有著重要的參考價(jià)值和借鑒作用。本文在總結(jié)梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和財(cái)務(wù)特征,根據(jù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)2012年-2015年間中報(bào)、年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)選取了財(cái)務(wù)健康和財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)配對(duì)企業(yè)共34對(duì)樣本數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)和非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),從償債能力、盈利能力等9個(gè)維度選取了 45個(gè)指標(biāo),通過(guò)正態(tài)分布檢驗(yàn)、顯著性檢驗(yàn)和因子分析,確定了建立Logistic財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的7個(gè)主要因子,最終隨機(jī)選取28對(duì)樣本建立了創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,并用28對(duì)訓(xùn)練樣本和6對(duì)檢驗(yàn)樣本對(duì)其準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果顯示檢驗(yàn)準(zhǔn)確度分別為91.1%和91.7%,證明了模型具有良好的預(yù)警效果。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文運(yùn)用2015年創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警分析,結(jié)果在301家創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)中,有42家企業(yè)被預(yù)警為財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)企業(yè),在這些企業(yè)中大多數(shù)屬于中低技術(shù)水平的制造業(yè),且其償債能力、盈利能力等指標(biāo)與正常企業(yè)存在著明顯差異。最后,通過(guò)分析,文章提出了加強(qiáng)防范創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造業(yè)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2009, gem listing has been favored by many investors. However, with the disclosure and analysis of annual report data. Its high profitability and high investment value halo is gradually fading. At the same time with the current domestic economy under the new normal industrial adjustment pains and increased market risks plus the growth Enterprise Board enterprise development instability the scale is small. Risk management awareness is weak, the rules and regulations are not perfect and other characteristics make their financial risks more prominent. For the gem enterprises to establish an appropriate financial risk warning model, improve the enterprise risk management system. It is of great significance to help enterprises to find out the risks and solve the problems as soon as possible, so that they can develop healthily and sustainably under the rapidly changing economic environment. At the same time, it is of great significance to effectively guide the development of the gem market. To promote the effective supervision of financial institutions has an important reference value and reference. This paper summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars on the basis of financial risk early warning research. According to the development and financial characteristics of gem manufacturing enterprises, according to the gem manufacturing enterprises from 2012 to 2015 in the report. The data of the annual report selected a total of 34 pairs of financial health and financial crisis matched enterprise sample data, combined with financial indicators and non-financial indicators, from 9 dimensions of solvency, profitability selected 45 indicators. Through normal distribution test, significance test and factor analysis, seven main factors of establishing Logistic financial early warning model are determined. Finally, 28 pairs of samples are randomly selected to establish the financial risk early warning model of gem manufacturing enterprises. 28 pairs of training samples and 6 pairs of test samples were used to test its accuracy and reliability. The results showed that the accuracy of the test was 91.1% and 91.7% respectively. It is proved that the model has good early warning effect. On this basis, this paper uses the relevant data of gem manufacturing enterprises in 2015 to carry out financial early warning analysis, and the results are in 301 gem manufacturing enterprises. There are 42 enterprises as financial crisis enterprises, in which most of them belong to the manufacturing industry of low and medium technology level, and their solvency, profitability and other indicators are obviously different from normal enterprises. Finally. Based on the analysis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent financial risks of gem manufacturing enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F425;F406.7

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