本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全評(píng)價(jià)與監(jiān)管研究　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 可持續(xù)能源安全 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系 可再生能源配額制 監(jiān)管 動(dòng)態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制

【摘要】：中國(guó)正處在工業(yè)化和城市化的關(guān)鍵發(fā)展階段,中國(guó)能源需求總量仍將保持增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì),在保證能源供應(yīng)充足和實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳、可持續(xù)發(fā)展之間保持平衡,是確保可持續(xù)能源安全的核心問(wèn)題。"十三五"是中國(guó)能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,保證充足有效、優(yōu)質(zhì)清潔的能源供應(yīng)是適應(yīng)新常態(tài)、發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的根本基礎(chǔ)。所以,在中國(guó)能源供需不平衡加重,環(huán)境約束趨緊,地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升的背景下,無(wú)論是發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì),還是保障能源安全,開(kāi)展可持續(xù)能源安全評(píng)價(jià)及監(jiān)管研究都非常有必要。本研究旨在分析中國(guó)能源安全現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,開(kāi)展中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全評(píng)價(jià),研究可持續(xù)能源安全監(jiān)管問(wèn)題,然后提出有針對(duì)性的中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全政策建議。具體如下:(1)中國(guó)能源安全的現(xiàn)狀分析利用歷史資料分析法從能源供給安全視角和能源使用安全視角分析中國(guó)能源安全現(xiàn)狀。能源供給安全主要從能源儲(chǔ)量、能源供需缺口與能源價(jià)格方面分析,能源使用安全主要從能源環(huán)境效應(yīng)、能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)和能源系統(tǒng)的低碳轉(zhuǎn)型與可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面分析。中國(guó)能源供給安全面臨國(guó)內(nèi)供需不平衡的缺口不斷擴(kuò)大以及能源價(jià)格波動(dòng)帶來(lái)的供應(yīng)不確定性。中國(guó)能源使用安全面臨能源利用帶來(lái)的嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境負(fù)外部性和經(jīng)濟(jì)利用效率較低以及能源系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力較弱的問(wèn)題。(2)中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全評(píng)價(jià)體系構(gòu)建與實(shí)證分析首先,根據(jù)可持續(xù)能源安全的涵義,提出能源可用性、可獲性、可購(gòu)性、可接受性及可發(fā)展性五個(gè)準(zhǔn)則,選用15個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建了中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。然后,運(yùn)用熵權(quán)TOPSIS法建立綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)2005-2015年期間中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,得出中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全水平。接著,運(yùn)用K-均值聚類(lèi)法對(duì)各年中國(guó)能源安全水平進(jìn)行等級(jí)劃分,從政策演變視角分析中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全變化趨勢(shì)。最后,運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法,分析各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)對(duì)中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全的影響程度。得出結(jié)論:在2005-2010年和2010-2015年期間中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全水平均呈現(xiàn)先降后升的態(tài)勢(shì)。2005年至2015年,中國(guó)能源具有良好的可接受性和可發(fā)展性,然而可獲性持續(xù)下降。能碳強(qiáng)度、能源消費(fèi)多樣性、非化石能源消費(fèi)比例是對(duì)中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源安全水平影響最大的三個(gè)影響因子。(3)可再生能源配額制視角的可持續(xù)能源安全監(jiān)管分析首先,根據(jù)政府監(jiān)管部門(mén)與存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系的發(fā)電企業(yè)之間的博弈關(guān)系建立了演化博弈模型,求解了博弈系統(tǒng)的復(fù)制動(dòng)態(tài)方程,得到了多個(gè)均衡解。然后,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法建立可再生能源配額制監(jiān)管的多方演化博弈仿真模型,并運(yùn)用仿真手段驗(yàn)證各均衡點(diǎn)處的演化穩(wěn)定性。發(fā)現(xiàn)在靜態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制下,博弈系統(tǒng)不存在演化穩(wěn)定均衡。因此,將模型中的靜態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制改進(jìn)為考慮企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系的動(dòng)態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制。在動(dòng)態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制條件下,對(duì)新的博弈系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了仿真分析,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)改進(jìn)動(dòng)態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制下各參與方隨著時(shí)間和博弈次數(shù)的增加,逐漸收斂于一個(gè)穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),博弈系統(tǒng)存在演化穩(wěn)定策略。并運(yùn)用雅克比矩陣特征值判斷方法,從理論上驗(yàn)證了動(dòng)態(tài)懲罰機(jī)制下博弈系統(tǒng)存在演化穩(wěn)定策略,而且該演化穩(wěn)定策略與系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真結(jié)果一致。最后,利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的模擬仿真功能,分析若干關(guān)鍵變量對(duì)演化均衡的影響�？沙掷m(xù)能源安全綜合評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果以及可持續(xù)能源安全監(jiān)管問(wèn)題的研究結(jié)果可以為中國(guó)能源戰(zhàn)略制定和可持續(xù)能源安全監(jiān)管政策的制定提供理論參考和決策支持。
[Abstract]:China is at a critical stage of development of industrialization and city, the total energy demand Chinese will still maintain growth, to ensure adequate supply of energy and low carbon, keep the balance between sustainable development, is the core issue to ensure sustainable energy security. "13th Five-Year" is the key period of economic China energy, low carbon transformation, guarantee adequate and effective, high-quality clean energy supply is to adapt to the new norm, the fundamental basis for the development of low-carbon economy. Therefore, in China energy supply and demand imbalance is aggravating, environmental constraints tightening, geopolitical risks rise in the background, whether it is the development of low-carbon economy and energy security, to carry out research on sustainable energy safety evaluation and supervision it is very necessary. This study aims to analyze the current situation of energy security Chinese on carrying out the evaluation of sustainable energy security China, research on sustainable energy safety supervision The problem, then put forward Chinese sustainable energy security policy recommendations. The details are as follows: (1) analysis of the current situation of China energy security by using the historical data analysis from the perspective of energy supply security and energy security perspective analysis of the current situation of energy security China. Energy supply security mainly from the energy reserves, energy supply and demand gap analysis and energy prices the main energy from energy security, environmental effect analysis of low carbon transformation and sustainable development of energy economy effect and energy system. China energy supply security faces the domestic supply and demand imbalance widening gap and energy price fluctuations of supply uncertainty. China energy security is facing energy use brought serious negative environmental externalities and the economic efficiency is low and the ability of sustainable development of energy system is weak. (2) China can hold Continued construction of the first analysis and empirical evaluation system of energy safety, according to the meaning of sustainable energy security, energy availability, accessibility, affordability, acceptability and development of the five criteria, select 15 evaluation indexes, constructed the sustainable energy security evaluation index system China. Then, using entropy based the comprehensive evaluation model of TOPSIS method, an empirical study on Chinese sustainable energy security during the period of 2005-2015, the China sustainable energy safety level. Then, for each year China energy security level grade division using K- means clustering method, from the policy evolution trend analysis China sustainable energy security change perspective. Finally, using the method of Grey Relational Analysis analysis, the degree of influence of each evaluation index of China sustainable energy security. Conclusion: in the 2005-2010 years and 2010-2015 years Chinese sustainable energy security water The average decline to rise after.2005 years to 2015, China energy has good acceptability and development, however, continued to decline. The availability of carbon intensity, energy consumption, diversity, non fossil energy consumption ratio is China on sustainable energy security level the effect of three factors (. 3) renewable energy quota system from the Perspective of sustainable energy safety supervision analysis firstly, according to the government and the game relationship exists between the power generation enterprise competition evolutionary game model was built. The replicated dynamic equation solved game system, multiple equilibrium solutions are obtained. Then, the multi evolutionary game simulation model based on system dynamics method renewable energy quota system of supervision, and using the simulation method verify the stability of the equilibrium point of evolution. Found in the static penalty mechanism, the game system does not exist in the evolution. Set the balance. Therefore, the static model of the punishment mechanism is improved considering the dynamic punishment mechanism of competition between the enterprises. In the dynamic conditions of punishment mechanism, new game systems are analyzed. The results showed that the improved dynamic mechanism to punish the parties involved in the game with the increase of time and frequency, gradually converge to a in steady state, the evolutionary stable strategy game system. And using the Jacobian matrix method to determine the characteristic value from theory to prove the existence of the evolutionary stable strategy game system dynamic mechanism of punishment, and the evolutionary stable strategy and system dynamics simulation results. Finally, the simulation function of system dynamics, analysis of the impact of several key variables of evolution equilibrium. The results of the comprehensive evaluation of sustainable energy safety and sustainable energy research safety supervision for the Chinese energy strategy The formulation and sustainable energy safety regulatory policies to provide theoretical reference and decision support.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.2

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