本文選題：技術(shù)創(chuàng)新　切入點：外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模以超過20%的年均增長速度增長，截至2011年，我國實現(xiàn)外貿(mào)進出口總值36420.6億美元，其中出口18986億美元，排名世界第一，進口17434.6億美元，，居世界第二。但是，我國快速增長的貿(mào)易規(guī)模卻是建立在資源消耗和勞動力優(yōu)勢基礎(chǔ)之上，50%以上的貿(mào)易額以加工貿(mào)易的方式完成，出口產(chǎn)品缺乏自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)和自主品牌；另外，我國出口產(chǎn)品中主要為低附加值的勞動和資源密集型產(chǎn)品，高科技產(chǎn)品出口所占比重較低。因此，我國現(xiàn)有的外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式水平不高、競爭力不強，不利于外貿(mào)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，亟需轉(zhuǎn)變。而外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變關(guān)鍵在于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，尤其是自主創(chuàng)新能力的提升。 本文主要分析技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響，首先分析技術(shù)創(chuàng)新影響外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的內(nèi)在機理，分別從技術(shù)創(chuàng)新通過推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和外貿(mào)可持續(xù)的發(fā)展來說明外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變；其次，通過構(gòu)建外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式綜合評價指標體系，運用主成分分析法測算出歷年我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)，用以反映我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變水平；再次，建立技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)的回歸模型，并運用協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應函數(shù)以及方差分解等方法，分析技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響。 本文的實證分析結(jié)果表明：1995-2010年，外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指標處于穩(wěn)定上升狀態(tài)，表明我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變已取得較好成效；表示技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的三個變量：RD投入強度、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出率和人力資本強度，對外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變都具有顯著的正向影響，其中RD投入強度的影響程度要顯著大于其余兩變量對外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響；RD投入強度、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出率以及人力資本強度都是引起外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的格蘭杰原因；當VAR模型中一個變量受到外部沖擊時，外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變對來自RD投入強度的脈沖響應最為明顯，而且反應多為正值，并且影響也具有較長的持續(xù)性，而對來自其它因素的脈沖響應函數(shù)表現(xiàn)較為復雜，呈現(xiàn)周期波動，正負交替。 在理論與實證的研究基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出我國應該建立以技術(shù)創(chuàng)新為核心的外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式，并提出相關(guān)政策建議，主要有：加大研發(fā)投入，提高技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的引進消化吸收和再創(chuàng)新能力，建立貿(mào)易促進技術(shù)創(chuàng)新體系等。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s foreign trade has grown at an annual average rate of more than 20 % . As of 2011 , China ' s foreign trade import and export value amounted to 36420 billion US dollars , of which US $ 18986 billion , ranking the world ' s first , imported $ 17434 . 600 million , the world ' s second . However , China ' s fast - growing trade scale was based on resource consumption and labor strength , and more than 50 % of the trade volume was completed in the way of processing trade , and the export product lacked independent intellectual property rights and self - owned brands ;
In addition , China ' s export products mainly include low added value labor and resource - intensive products , and the proportion of export of high - tech products is low . Therefore , China ' s current mode of foreign trade development is not high , its competitiveness is not strong , it is unfavorable to the sustainable development of foreign trade . The key to the transformation of foreign trade development mode lies in the promotion of technological innovation , especially the independent innovation ability .

This paper mainly analyzes the influence of technological innovation on China ' s foreign trade development mode , first analyzes the internal mechanism of technological innovation ' s transformation from foreign trade development mode , and explains the transformation of foreign trade development mode from technological innovation through promoting industrial structure upgrading , trade structure optimization and foreign trade sustainable development .
Secondly , by constructing comprehensive evaluation index system of foreign trade development mode , using principal component analysis method to calculate the transformation level index of foreign trade development mode of China in calendar year , which is used to reflect the transformation level of foreign trade development mode in China ;
Thirdly , establish the regression model of the transformation level index of the technological innovation to the foreign trade development mode , and analyze the influence of technological innovation on the transformation of foreign trade development mode by means of co - integration test , Grant causality test , impulse response function and variance decomposition .

The empirical analysis of this paper shows that , in 1995 - 2010 , the transition level index of foreign trade development mode is in a stable rising state , which indicates that China ' s foreign trade development mode has achieved good results ;
The three variables that represent technological innovation : RD input intensity , technological innovation yield and human capital intensity , have significant positive impact on the transformation of foreign trade development mode , in which the influence degree of RD input intensity is significantly greater than that of the other two variables for foreign trade development mode transition ;
RD investment intensity , the yield of technological innovation and the strength of human capital are the reasons for the change of foreign trade development mode ;
When a variable in the VAR model is impacted by external shocks , the transformation of the foreign trade development mode is most obvious to the impulse response from RD input intensity , and the response is positive , and the influence also has long persistence , and the impulse response function from other factors is more complex , exhibits periodic fluctuation and positive and negative alternation .

On the basis of the research of theory and demonstration , this paper puts forward that China should establish the mode of foreign trade development with technological innovation as its core , and put forward relevant policy suggestions , which mainly include : increasing R & D investment , improving technological innovation , introducing digestion and absorbing and re - innovation ability , establishing trade promotion technology innovation system , etc .

【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752

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