【摘要】：我國(guó)的保險(xiǎn)業(yè)起源于1899年,但隨著建國(guó)后人民公社運(yùn)動(dòng)的進(jìn)行,保險(xiǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入停滯期,經(jīng)歷了多年的波折后,于1978重新開啟,隨后呈高速發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)。作為保險(xiǎn)業(yè)重要支柱之一,財(cái)產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)是不可忽視的組成部分,如今對(duì)整個(gè)保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)以及財(cái)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)已有諸多相關(guān)研究,而占財(cái)險(xiǎn)收入份額75%以上的機(jī)動(dòng)車險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)相關(guān)研究依舊較少。針對(duì)研究空白,本文首先研究以往學(xué)者對(duì)改革開放以來經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的經(jīng)驗(yàn)性階段劃分,了解背后實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)意義后,對(duì)GDP年度數(shù)據(jù)以及車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行HP濾波分析,分離其周期波動(dòng)成分,觀察波動(dòng)特征,GDP對(duì)車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入有很強(qiáng)的帶動(dòng)作用,當(dāng)GDP周期運(yùn)行狀態(tài)反轉(zhuǎn)時(shí),車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入波動(dòng)程度更大,但受GDP周期約束程度較大,但在相同大周期下,會(huì)走出自己的小級(jí)別周期形態(tài),說明存在其他因素對(duì)其有顯著影響;隨后對(duì)對(duì)我國(guó)車險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,從面板數(shù)據(jù)出發(fā),借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果,探索各類因素對(duì)車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入影響,通過嶺估計(jì)方法削減各變量間共線性后,發(fā)現(xiàn)居民汽車擁有量對(duì)車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入有極高的正相關(guān)性,其對(duì)應(yīng)的回歸系數(shù)也是所有變量中最高,已到達(dá)0.761,居民汽車擁有量與車險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入線性相關(guān)關(guān)系最為顯著。最終綜合動(dòng)態(tài)、靜態(tài)兩方面分析結(jié)果,得出最終結(jié)論,并給出具體可行性建議。
[Abstract]:The insurance industry of our country originated in 1899, but with the movement of people's commune after the founding of the people's Commune, the insurance industry came to a standstill, after many years of twists and turns, it was reopened in 1978 and then developed at a high speed. As one of the important pillars of the insurance industry, property insurance is an important part of the insurance industry. Nowadays, there are many related studies on the whole insurance industry and property insurance, but the motor vehicle insurance market, which accounts for more than 75% of the income from property insurance, is still less. Aiming at the blank of the research, this paper first studies the empirical stage division of the economic cycle since the reform and opening up, and then analyzes the annual data of GDP and the premium income data of auto insurance by HP filter. It is observed that the fluctuation characteristic of GDP has a very strong driving effect on the premium income of automobile insurance. When the operating state of GDP cycle is reversed, the fluctuation degree of premium income of auto insurance is greater, but the degree of restriction of GDP cycle is greater. However, under the same large period, it will walk out of its own small periodic pattern, indicating that there are other factors that have a significant impact on it. Then, it analyzes the current situation of China's auto insurance market, starting from the panel data, Referring to the domestic and foreign related research results, this paper explores the influence of various factors on the premium income of automobile insurance. After reducing the collinearity among the variables by using the ridge estimation method, it is found that there is a very high positive correlation between the car ownership and the premium income of vehicle insurance. The regression coefficient is also the highest among all variables, which has reached 0.761.The linear correlation between car ownership and premium income is the most significant. Finally, synthesizing the dynamic and static analysis results, the final conclusion is drawn, and the concrete feasibility suggestions are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D922.284

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