【摘要】：隨著知識經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,專利作為一項(xiàng)重要的無形資產(chǎn)受到了越來越多的關(guān)注。但專利價(jià)值評估和數(shù)值的實(shí)現(xiàn)仍舊是學(xué)術(shù)界和實(shí)業(yè)界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。過去的研究往往會因?yàn)槟Ｐ瓦^于復(fù)雜而無法實(shí)現(xiàn),或者模型假設(shè)過于簡單不符合現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,從而都不能很好的反映專利價(jià)值。同時1996年的新公司法要求無形資產(chǎn)在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表上反映其公平的價(jià)值,因此,研究專利價(jià)值評估和數(shù)值的實(shí)現(xiàn)具有特別重要的理論和實(shí)際意義。 本文主要建立了專利價(jià)值評估模型并進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬,然后討論專利價(jià)值的決定因素。文中采用了實(shí)物期權(quán)方法,試圖建立一個考慮了未來的不確定性的專利估值的理論模型。在這個模型中,主要是通過隨機(jī)過程對變量進(jìn)行估計(jì)來反映未來的不確定性的。本文認(rèn)為專利的價(jià)值不是項(xiàng)目的價(jià)值,而應(yīng)該是項(xiàng)目在有無專利保護(hù)下價(jià)值的差額。因此在這個理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上,本文試圖利用蒙特卡洛模擬的方法對有無專利保護(hù)兩種情況下的研發(fā)項(xiàng)目價(jià)值進(jìn)行模擬,通過有專利保護(hù)的項(xiàng)目和無專利保護(hù)的項(xiàng)目的價(jià)值差額來反映專利自身的價(jià)值。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對這些影響專利價(jià)值的因素進(jìn)行了敏感性分析。通過敏感性分析比較判斷出總投資成本,凈現(xiàn)流,波動率和貼現(xiàn)率,無專利保護(hù)的項(xiàng)目的市場份額這幾個因素對于專利價(jià)值的影響比較大。而漂移率,突發(fā)事件的概率和凈現(xiàn)流乘數(shù)對專利價(jià)值的影響都是比較小的。
[Abstract]:With the development of knowledge economy, patent as an important intangible asset has been paid more and more attention. However, the evaluation and realization of patent value is still a hot issue in academia and industry. Past studies often because the model is too complex to be implemented, or the model assumption is too simple and not in line with the actual situation, so it can not reflect the value of the patent very well. At the same time, the new company law in 1996 requires intangible assets to reflect their fair value in financial statements. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation and realization of patent value. In this paper, the evaluation model of patent value is established and numerical simulation is carried out, and then the determinants of patent value are discussed. In this paper, the real option method is used to establish a theoretical model of patent valuation which takes into account the uncertainty of the future. In this model, variables are estimated by stochastic processes to reflect the uncertainty in the future. This paper holds that the value of patent is not the value of project, but the difference of value of project under patent protection. Therefore, based on this theoretical model, this paper attempts to use Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the value of R & D projects under the two conditions of patent protection. The value of the patent itself is reflected by the difference between the value of the patented item and the non-patented item. On this basis, the sensitivity of these factors affecting the value of patent is analyzed. The sensitivity analysis shows that the total investment cost, net current, volatility and discount rate, and the market share of the project without patent protection have great influence on the patent value. However, the drift rate, the probability of unexpected events and the net current multiplier have little effect on the patent value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F204;F224

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