基于證據(jù)理論的安全防范系統(tǒng)評(píng)估與優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-16 10:29
【摘要】：安全防范系統(tǒng)在我們的生活中已經(jīng)無(wú)處不在,但是由于缺乏有效的安全防范系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法及優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)手段,目前國(guó)內(nèi)大多數(shù)安全防范系統(tǒng)只是對(duì)安防產(chǎn)品的簡(jiǎn)單組合和主觀布局,容易出現(xiàn)過(guò)度保護(hù)或者重點(diǎn)區(qū)域保護(hù)不足等問(wèn)題。建立一套完整、量化的安全防范系統(tǒng)評(píng)估和優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)方法是我國(guó)安防領(lǐng)域中的一個(gè)核心問(wèn)題。本文將證據(jù)理論應(yīng)用到安全防范系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)中,結(jié)合示例模型說(shuō)明了方法的具體流程,主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新性研究成果如下:(1)首次將證據(jù)理論系統(tǒng)地應(yīng)用到安全防范系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估過(guò)程中,提出了一套基于信息融合思想的較為完整的評(píng)估方法。對(duì)安全防范系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了二維平面建模,能夠更加有效地刻畫(huà)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)信息;對(duì)平面點(diǎn)的多部件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息進(jìn)行融合,得到最終風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息,可有效表征該點(diǎn)所受到的綜合防護(hù);且評(píng)估結(jié)果能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)直觀的三維可視化。(2)首次使用證據(jù)函數(shù)(BPA)來(lái)表達(dá)平面點(diǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息,能夠更好地處理“不確定”和“不知道”的情況,減少了信息損失。提出了三種BPA生成模型,基于正態(tài)分布的生成模型、基于高斯過(guò)程回歸的無(wú)參生成模型和基于隸屬度的生成模型。特別是第三種模型為系統(tǒng)人員提供了一種自定義威脅度生成策略的途徑,再將威脅度結(jié)合隸屬度函數(shù)生成BPA。(3)文中提出了兩種將BPA轉(zhuǎn)化為概率的方法,用于實(shí)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的概率式?jīng)Q策,包括基于證據(jù)關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)的概率轉(zhuǎn)換方法和基于沖突系數(shù)的概率轉(zhuǎn)換方法,通過(guò)算例將它們與經(jīng)典的賭博概率轉(zhuǎn)換方法進(jìn)行比較并給出相應(yīng)的使用建議。(4)針對(duì)安全防范系統(tǒng)的最優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)問(wèn)題,提出了最優(yōu)化問(wèn)題的構(gòu)建方法和求解方案,將DIRECT算法和遺傳算法結(jié)合起來(lái),優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)。能夠求解固定資源條件下系統(tǒng)部件的最佳布局,最大程度發(fā)揮系統(tǒng)的防范效能,有利于提高系統(tǒng)的成本-效益比。
[Abstract]:Security prevention systems are everywhere in our lives, but due to the lack of effective risk assessment methods and optimization design methods, At present, most of the domestic security prevention systems are only a simple combination and subjective layout of security products, which are prone to over-protection or insufficient protection in key areas. It is a core problem in the field of security in China to establish a set of complete and quantitative methods for evaluating and optimizing the security system. In this paper, the evidence theory is applied to the risk assessment and optimization design of the security prevention system, and the concrete flow of the method is illustrated with an example model. The main innovative research results are as follows: (1) for the first time, the evidence theory is systematically applied to the risk assessment process of the security prevention system, and a set of relatively complete evaluation methods based on the idea of information fusion are proposed. The two-dimensional plane modeling of the security prevention system can describe the system structure information more effectively, and the multi-component risk information of the plane point can be fused to obtain the final risk information, which can effectively represent the comprehensive protection of the point. The evaluation results can be visualized intuitively. (2) for the first time, the evidence function (BPA) is used to express the risk information of planar points, which can better deal with the situation of "uncertainty" and "not knowing" and reduce the loss of information. Three kinds of BPA generation models are proposed, which are based on normal distribution, non-parametric generation model based on Gao Si process regression and generating model based on membership degree. In particular, the third model provides a way for system personnel to create a self-defined threat degree strategy. Then, two methods of transforming BPA into probability are proposed in this paper, which combines threat degree with membership function to generate BPA. (3). Probabilistic decision-making for risk assessment, including probabilistic conversion methods based on evidence correlation coefficients and conflict coefficients, By comparing them with the classical gambling probability conversion method, the corresponding suggestions are given. (4) for the optimization design problem of the security prevention system, the construction method and the solution scheme of the optimization problem are proposed. DIRECT algorithm and genetic algorithm are combined to complement each other. It can solve the optimal layout of system components under the condition of fixed resources, maximize the effectiveness of the system, and improve the cost-benefit ratio of the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TP202;D918.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2382190
[Abstract]:Security prevention systems are everywhere in our lives, but due to the lack of effective risk assessment methods and optimization design methods, At present, most of the domestic security prevention systems are only a simple combination and subjective layout of security products, which are prone to over-protection or insufficient protection in key areas. It is a core problem in the field of security in China to establish a set of complete and quantitative methods for evaluating and optimizing the security system. In this paper, the evidence theory is applied to the risk assessment and optimization design of the security prevention system, and the concrete flow of the method is illustrated with an example model. The main innovative research results are as follows: (1) for the first time, the evidence theory is systematically applied to the risk assessment process of the security prevention system, and a set of relatively complete evaluation methods based on the idea of information fusion are proposed. The two-dimensional plane modeling of the security prevention system can describe the system structure information more effectively, and the multi-component risk information of the plane point can be fused to obtain the final risk information, which can effectively represent the comprehensive protection of the point. The evaluation results can be visualized intuitively. (2) for the first time, the evidence function (BPA) is used to express the risk information of planar points, which can better deal with the situation of "uncertainty" and "not knowing" and reduce the loss of information. Three kinds of BPA generation models are proposed, which are based on normal distribution, non-parametric generation model based on Gao Si process regression and generating model based on membership degree. In particular, the third model provides a way for system personnel to create a self-defined threat degree strategy. Then, two methods of transforming BPA into probability are proposed in this paper, which combines threat degree with membership function to generate BPA. (3). Probabilistic decision-making for risk assessment, including probabilistic conversion methods based on evidence correlation coefficients and conflict coefficients, By comparing them with the classical gambling probability conversion method, the corresponding suggestions are given. (4) for the optimization design problem of the security prevention system, the construction method and the solution scheme of the optimization problem are proposed. DIRECT algorithm and genetic algorithm are combined to complement each other. It can solve the optimal layout of system components under the condition of fixed resources, maximize the effectiveness of the system, and improve the cost-benefit ratio of the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TP202;D918.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2382190
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