發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-15 23:46

【摘要】：本文的主要理論觀(guān)點(diǎn)為貝克爾的主觀(guān)預(yù)期效用理論,運(yùn)用該理論從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度來(lái)分析犯罪行為,從犯罪者的角度,考慮犯罪所需的成本與所得的利益,再根據(jù)犯罪威懾理論,結(jié)合實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)探討社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)等因素的變動(dòng)對(duì)刑事案件、盜竊犯罪及暴力犯罪等三種犯罪類(lèi)型發(fā)生率的影響。 本文以1985-2008年遼寧省十三個(gè)市的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為分析對(duì)象,通過(guò)構(gòu)造數(shù)學(xué)模型來(lái)處理分析數(shù)據(jù),并在得出結(jié)論后加以驗(yàn)證。 經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：人均警務(wù)支出和失業(yè)率與三種犯罪類(lèi)型的發(fā)生率均有正相關(guān),而離婚率僅與刑事案件發(fā)生率及盜竊犯罪發(fā)生率有正相關(guān)。另外,案件破獲率則與三種犯罪類(lèi)型的發(fā)生率有著負(fù)相關(guān)。至于起訴率、吉尼系數(shù)、人口密度及人均可支配所得這幾個(gè)因素,則因犯罪類(lèi)型的不同而對(duì)犯罪發(fā)生率的影響有所不同。 最后,本文希望換一個(gè)角度來(lái)探究犯罪行為,根據(jù)研究所得的結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的建議,為有關(guān)單位在對(duì)待相關(guān)問(wèn)題時(shí)提供參考。
[Abstract]:The main theoretical viewpoint of this paper is Becker's subjective expected utility theory, which is used to analyze the criminal behavior from the angle of economics, from the angle of the offender, to consider the necessary cost and benefit of the crime, and then according to the theory of criminal deterrence. This paper discusses the influence of the change of social and economic factors on the incidence of criminal cases, theft crimes and violent crimes. Taking the statistical data of 13 cities in Liaoning Province from 1985 to 2008 as the analysis object, this paper constructs a mathematical model to deal with the analysis data and verifies them after reaching a conclusion. It is found that the police expenditure and unemployment rate per capita are all positively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crimes, while the divorce rate is only positively correlated with the incidence of criminal cases and the crime of theft. In addition, the rate of case detection is negatively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crime. As for the prosecution rate, Gini coefficient, population density and disposable income per capita, these factors have different effects on the incidence of crime according to the different types of crime. Finally, this article hopes to change a new angle to explore the criminal behavior, according to the results of the study put forward the corresponding suggestions, for the relevant units in the treatment of related issues to provide a reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D917.1

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本文編號(hào)：2381483