【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展,國(guó)內(nèi)各地一批批涉及群眾切身利益的項(xiàng)目相繼開(kāi)建,因征地拆遷、環(huán)境問(wèn)題等原因引發(fā)的群體性沖突極端化頻繁發(fā)生。例如“9.21”烏坎村事件(2011年)、江蘇啟東事件(2012年)、鄭州“3.21”強(qiáng)拆事件(2015年)等。當(dāng)這些群體性沖突極端化發(fā)生時(shí),往往會(huì)造成社會(huì)秩序的混亂、財(cái)產(chǎn)遭到損失等嚴(yán)重后果。因此,研究群體性沖突極端化的演化行為,可以得知群體性沖突極端化的演變規(guī)律及相關(guān)因素對(duì)演化行為的影響,預(yù)防群體性沖突極端化的出現(xiàn),具有較強(qiáng)的理論和實(shí)踐意義�；谝陨系目紤],本文在系統(tǒng)地梳理了相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和案例的基礎(chǔ)上,以群體性沖突極端化行為為研究背景,采用博弈論與等級(jí)依賴(lài)期望效用理論,分析了其演化行為的規(guī)律。論文首先運(yùn)用多案例分析與結(jié)構(gòu)化描述框架得出了群體性沖突極端化的一般化結(jié)構(gòu)化描述框架。在生命周期理論和案例的梳理分析的基礎(chǔ)上,得出了群體性沖突極端化的演化過(guò)程概念模型,該模型將群體性沖突極端化的過(guò)程劃分為了潛伏、醞釀、爆發(fā)、擴(kuò)散與平息五個(gè)階段。其次,通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)計(jì)量學(xué)方法,得出了影響群體性沖突極端化行為的16個(gè)因素,并通過(guò)模糊集DEMATEL方法確定了影響群體性沖突極端化行為的關(guān)鍵因素,這些關(guān)鍵因素為群體情緒的激化、謠言的傳播、事件的危害性、信息的公開(kāi)性、政府應(yīng)急處置的效率和政府應(yīng)急處置的效果。再次,根據(jù)影響群體性沖突極端化的關(guān)鍵因素,運(yùn)用演化博弈論模型著重分析了信息傳播對(duì)群體性沖突極端化演化行為的影響。結(jié)果表明在信息傳播初期,政府部門(mén)采取信息引導(dǎo)措施,有利于預(yù)防群體性沖突極端化的不斷升級(jí);在信息傳播的中后期,雖然政府部門(mén)采取信息引導(dǎo)措施產(chǎn)生的效果不如初期顯著,有可能還會(huì)造成弱勢(shì)群體行為的震蕩,但是加強(qiáng)信息引導(dǎo)措施,仍可以使參與者的極端化行為趨于均衡。接著,根據(jù)影響群體性沖突極端化的關(guān)鍵因素,通過(guò)構(gòu)建了考慮情緒因素的強(qiáng)勢(shì)群體-弱勢(shì)群體的RDEU博弈模型著重分析了群體情緒的激化對(duì)群體性沖突極端化演化行為的影響。研究結(jié)果表明參與者的悲觀(guān)情緒增加了群體性沖突極端化中參與者群體采取極端行為的可能性,并結(jié)合四川什邡事件具體解釋了所構(gòu)建模型的研究結(jié)果。最后,結(jié)合影響群體性沖突極端化行為的因素以及信息傳播、群體情緒的激化對(duì)群體性沖突極端化行為演化的影響,提出了防控與消減群體性沖突極端化行為的對(duì)策及建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, lots of projects involving the vital interests of the masses have been built one after another, and the group conflicts caused by land requisition and demolition, environmental problems and other reasons frequently occur. For example, "9.21" Wukan Village incident (2011), Jiangsu Qidong incident (2012), Zhengzhou "3.21" forced demolition event (2015) and so on. When these group conflicts take place, they often lead to the chaos of social order and the loss of property. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evolution behavior of group conflict extremism, to know the evolution law of group conflict and the influence of relevant factors on the evolution behavior, and to prevent the emergence of group conflict extremism. Based on the above considerations, this paper systematically combs the relevant literature and cases, taking the extreme behavior of group conflict as the background, and analyzes the law of its evolutionary behavior by using the game theory and the expected utility theory of rank dependence. In this paper, a general structured description framework of group conflict extremes is proposed by using multi-case analysis and structured description framework. On the basis of combing and analyzing the life cycle theory and cases, this paper presents a conceptual model of the evolution process of group conflict, which divides the extreme process of group conflict into latent, brewing and breaking out. There are five stages of diffusion and pacification. Secondly, through bibliometrics, 16 factors affecting the extreme behavior of group conflict are obtained, and the key factors influencing the extreme behavior of group conflict are determined by fuzzy set DEMATEL method. These key factors are the aggravation of group emotion, the spread of rumors, the harmfulness of events, the openness of information, the efficiency of government emergency disposal and the effect of government emergency disposal. Thirdly, according to the key factors affecting the extreme of group conflict, the influence of information dissemination on the extreme evolution behavior of group conflict is analyzed by using evolutionary game theory model. The results show that in the early stage of information dissemination, government departments take information guidance measures to prevent the continuous escalation of group conflicts, and in the middle and late stages of information dissemination, Although the effect of the information guidance measures taken by the government is not as obvious as that of the initial stage, it may also cause the shock of the behavior of the vulnerable groups, but strengthening the information guidance measures can still make the extreme behavior of the participants tend to be balanced. Then, according to the key factors that affect the extreme of group conflict, the RDEU game model of strong group-weak group considering emotional factors is constructed to analyze the influence of the intensification of group emotion on the extreme evolution behavior of group conflict. The results show that the pessimism of the participants increases the possibility of the participants taking extreme behaviors in the extreme of group conflict and explains the results of the model in combination with the Shifang incident in Sichuan Province. Finally, combined with the factors affecting the extreme behavior of group conflict and the influence of information dissemination and the aggravation of group emotion on the evolution of group conflict extreme behavior, the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and control and subtract the extreme behavior of group conflict are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D631.43

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