本文選題：交通擁堵　切入點(diǎn)：擁堵特征　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著人口的增長(zhǎng),經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展以及城市化水平的提高,城市機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量急劇增長(zhǎng),城市交通擁堵狀況也隨之日益嚴(yán)峻。交通擁堵給居民的生產(chǎn)和生活帶來了諸多不便,嚴(yán)重制約城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。擁堵問題始終是諸多學(xué)者和專家關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),而交通擁堵問題根本原因是交通供給和交通需求的不均衡。北京現(xiàn)階段交通需求的特點(diǎn)包括以下兩個(gè)方面:一、出行需求總量巨大超過了現(xiàn)階段的道路供給水平;二、出行方式結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,私家車占比過高,公共交通占比有待提高。本文以北京為實(shí)證研究對(duì)象,闡述北京的交通擁堵特征和道路交通擁堵的影響因素,為北京交通擁堵治理提出建議,也為其它特大城市乃至全國(guó)的交通擁堵治理提供參考和借鑒。本文以交通供需理論、交通需求管理理論作為理論基礎(chǔ)。在總結(jié)相關(guān)理論和文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,首先分析北京市交通擁堵的現(xiàn)狀和特征以及道路交通擁堵的影響因素。然后依據(jù)通過百度地圖API抓取的46條上下行線路的通行數(shù)據(jù),采用聚類等統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法對(duì)北京市道路擁堵特征進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分析了北京市交通擁堵的時(shí)間分布特征和擁堵的空間分布特征以及其他一些擁堵特征。最后采用多項(xiàng)式回歸和多元對(duì)數(shù)回歸模型,以實(shí)時(shí)抓取和實(shí)地調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)道路擁堵與車輛數(shù)的關(guān)系特征以及道路交通擁堵的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過實(shí)證分析得出如下結(jié)論:第一,北京市不同道路的擁堵特征不同,擁堵的時(shí)空分布最大的特征就是不均衡性。在實(shí)際管理過程中,應(yīng)針對(duì)不同道路特點(diǎn)分別采取限制車流、建設(shè)潮汐車道等不同的措施達(dá)到"削峰填谷"的目的。第二,道路擁堵與車輛數(shù)的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系呈"S"型曲線特征。在道路很通暢的情況下,車輛數(shù)的增加對(duì)擁堵幾乎沒有影響;之后伴隨著車輛數(shù)的增加,擁堵呈現(xiàn)邊際遞增;在達(dá)到一定的車輛數(shù)之后,擁堵隨著車輛數(shù)的增加呈現(xiàn)邊際遞減,并逐漸達(dá)到飽和。第三,道路擁堵影響因素方面。道路沿線是否有地鐵對(duì)道路擁堵程度的影響不顯著,即地鐵對(duì)小汽車的替代作用不明顯;公交站密度越大和公交專用道加重了高峰期的道路擁堵狀況;區(qū)域就業(yè)人口數(shù)量對(duì)道路影響是顯著的,這部分決定了出行需求量。最后針對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)論,本文提出應(yīng)對(duì)交通擁堵的關(guān)鍵在于控制交通需求總量,優(yōu)化出行結(jié)構(gòu),減少小汽車出行數(shù)量和比例。為了削減道路上行駛的車輛數(shù),利用經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿,增加小汽車的使用成本,從總體上消減小汽車出行數(shù)量。限制特定時(shí)間特定路段的交通流量,調(diào)節(jié)交通流量的時(shí)空分布,達(dá)到緩解交通擁堵的作用。
[Abstract]:With the population growth, rapid economic development and improve the level of city, the rapid growth of motor vehicles in city, city traffic congestion is becoming severe. Traffic congestion has brought a lot of inconvenience to the production and life of the residents, seriously restricting the sustainable development of the city. The congestion problem is always the focus of many scholars and experts concerned the basic reason for the problem of traffic congestion is the transport supply and demand imbalance. At this stage the traffic demand characteristics of Beijing include the following two aspects: first, the huge volume of travel demand exceeds supply road level at this stage; two, trip mode structure unreasonable, private cars accounted for the high proportion of public transport needs to be improved. This paper takes Beijing as the research object, describes the influence factors of the traffic congestion and road traffic congestion in Beijing, Beijing proposed the construction of traffic congestion management And also provide reference for other large city and the traffic congestion management. Based on the theory of supply and demand, transportation demand management theory as the theoretical foundation. Based on summarizing the relevant theory and literature on the first factor analysis of Beijing city traffic congestion situation and characteristics and road traffic congestion effects. Then according to traffic data 46 up and down the line through the Baidu maps API crawl, using clustering and statistical analysis of the characteristics of road congestion in Beijing for empirical analysis, and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and distribution of Beijing city traffic congestion time and other characteristics. Finally, congestion using the polynomial regression and multivariate logistic regression models, with real-time capture and field survey data as the basis, factor characteristics of road congestion and the number of vehicles and road traffic congestion. For the empirical analysis. The conclusions are as follows: first, the characteristics of different road congestion in Beijing City, the congestion of the temporal and spatial distribution of the biggest feature is not balanced. In the actual management process, should according to the different characteristics of the road were taken to limit traffic, construction tide Lane different measures to reach the peak "". Second, the corresponding relationship between road congestion and the number of vehicles is characteristic of S type curve. On the road is unobstructed, the increase of the number of vehicles has almost no effect on congestion; after accompanied by an increase in the number of vehicles, congestion is increasing marginal; after reaching a certain number of vehicles, with congestion increase the number of vehicles is diminishing marginal and gradually reached saturation. Third factors affecting road congestion. Along the road is the subway has no obvious influence on the degree of road congestion, subway cars for the replacement of The bus station is not obvious; the greater density and bus lanes increased road congestion peak; affect the number of regional employment population on the road is significant, this part determines the travel demand. Finally, according to the empirical conclusions, this paper argues that the key to deal with traffic congestion in total control of traffic demand, optimize travel structure, reduce the number and proportion of the number of vehicles driving car. In order to cut down on the road, the use of economic levers, increase the cost of cars, reduce car travel in general. The number of traffic restrictions at specific time in specific sections of the temporal and spatial distribution of traffic regulation, to ease traffic congestion.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D631.5

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