本文關(guān)鍵詞： 突變理論 火災(zāi)事故 尖點突變預(yù)測 灰色預(yù)測 灰色—尖點突變預(yù)測　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2009年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】： 火災(zāi)是嚴(yán)重危害人民生命、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)環(huán)境最常見的災(zāi)害之一,雖然近些年國家加大了消防安全管理力度,火災(zāi)事故得到有效遏制,但是形勢仍然不容樂觀,重特大火災(zāi)事故時有發(fā)生。火災(zāi)事故的沉痛教訓(xùn),使人們意識到及早掌握火災(zāi)發(fā)生規(guī)律以及制定預(yù)防對策的重要性,火災(zāi)預(yù)測也成為火災(zāi)領(lǐng)域中一個不可缺少的課題。 突變理論是研究在連續(xù)發(fā)展過程中出現(xiàn)的突然變化的現(xiàn)象,而系統(tǒng)從安全狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槭鹿薁顟B(tài)實際上也是一種突變現(xiàn)象。因此,突變理論是研究事故所適用的理論。突變的特點決定了對于事故與災(zāi)害的預(yù)測不能用一般的預(yù)測方法,需要引入突變理論來建立一套有效的預(yù)測模式。 本文從火災(zāi)事故預(yù)測出發(fā),首先在分析影響火災(zāi)事故發(fā)生的各種因素的基礎(chǔ)上,將突變理論引入火災(zāi)安全科學(xué)領(lǐng)域中,構(gòu)建了反映火災(zāi)事故發(fā)生本質(zhì)的火災(zāi)事故致因尖點突變模型。 其次,本文采用突變理論中的數(shù)據(jù)擬合方法,對我國1997～2006年火災(zāi)事故四項指標(biāo)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行擬合,判斷統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的狀態(tài)是否發(fā)生突變。然后運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中的GM(1,1)模型和殘差模型對火災(zāi)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,分析預(yù)測結(jié)果的精度。 最后,本文針對采用尖點突變預(yù)測模型和灰色預(yù)測模型中存在的不足之處,提出將兩種預(yù)測模型結(jié)合起來的灰色—尖點突變預(yù)測模型,再次對火災(zāi)事故指標(biāo)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,更加準(zhǔn)確地判斷各項指標(biāo)是否處于突變狀態(tài)。 本文把突變理論具體應(yīng)用到火災(zāi)事故的預(yù)測當(dāng)中,分析火災(zāi)系統(tǒng)功能狀態(tài)的演變過程以及火災(zāi)事故發(fā)展趨勢,為制定火災(zāi)事故預(yù)防對策提供依據(jù),具有一定的研究意義,并取得了一定的成果。
[Abstract]:Fire is a serious harm to people's life, one of the most common economic development and ecological environment of the disaster, although in recent years the state has increased the intensity of fire safety management, fire accidents have been effectively curbed, but the situation is still not optimistic, serious fire accidents have occurred. The painful lessons of fire, make people aware of the fire as soon as possible to master the law and establish the preventive measures. The fire prediction has become an indispensable task in fire field.
Catastrophe theory is studied in the continuous development of sudden changes appeared in the process of the phenomenon, and from the system safety state into the accident state is actually a kind of catastrophe phenomenon. Therefore, the catastrophe theory is an applicable theory to study accident. The mutation characteristics determine the forecast for the accident and disaster not by common forecasting methods, need the introduction of catastrophe theory to establish a set of effective prediction model.
Starting from the prediction of fire accidents, first, based on the analysis of various factors that affect the occurrence of fire accidents, the catastrophe theory is introduced into the field of fire safety science, and a cusp catastrophe model reflecting the essence of fire accidents is constructed.
Secondly, this paper uses mutation data fitting method in the theory of fitting to our country 1997~2006 years fire accident four indicators of statistical data, statistical data to judge whether the state of mutation. Then using grey system theory GM (1,1) model and residual error model to predict the fire statistics data analysis, the accuracy of the prediction results.
Finally, in view of the shortcomings of cusp catastrophe prediction model and grey prediction model, the grey cusp combination of two kinds of prediction model of mutation prediction model to predict the statistics again fire accident indicators, more accurate judgment of the indicators is mutation status.
In this paper, catastrophe theory is applied to the prediction of fire accidents. It analyzes the evolution of fire system functional state and the development trend of fire accidents. It has certain research significance for the development of fire prevention countermeasures, and has achieved certain results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：D631.6;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

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1 孫康;程澤軍;劉德海;;非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件演化機理研究:以化工事故引發(fā)的群體性事件為例[J];電子科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(社科版);2012年06期

2 梁辰;唐敏康;;空分設(shè)備爆炸的突變理論分析[J];安全與環(huán)境學(xué)報;2013年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 傅春燕;水上突發(fā)事件演變模型研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2011年

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本文編號：1533340