本文關(guān)鍵詞：急性高原病易感人群預測模型、方法研究　出處：《第三軍醫(yī)大學》2002年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】： 急進高原時，無論是從平原進入高原，還是從低海拔區(qū)進入高海拔區(qū)，人群中不可避免的要出現(xiàn)“急性高原病”（acute mountain sickness, AMS）。據(jù)資料報道，部隊急進高原時AMS發(fā)病率很高，往往造成大量非戰(zhàn)斗減員。許多研究指出，人群中的確存在著AMS易感人群，因此，如果能對其進行預測、篩選，避免易感者進入高原，可以從“源頭”上控制AMS發(fā)生的人群基數(shù)，是減少AMS發(fā)生的一個實用、有效和經(jīng)濟的方法。 本課題著眼大部隊急進高原，在以往“硬科學”（高原醫(yī)學等）研究基礎上，采取“軟科學”方法，對現(xiàn)有研究成果進行分析、評價和系統(tǒng)綜合，建立一個簡便、高效、準確的AMS易感人群預測體系，構(gòu)建AMS易感人群預測模型，形成適于大部隊急進高原，，具有可操作性的AMS易感人群預測方案，將高原醫(yī)學研究成果轉(zhuǎn)化成現(xiàn)實高原衛(wèi)勤保障能力。 本課題首先對AMS易感人群進行了科學的定義。通過文獻調(diào)研和高原現(xiàn)場實地調(diào)查，系統(tǒng)整理了現(xiàn)有的AMS易感人群預測指標。在此基礎上，運用系統(tǒng)分析、專家咨詢法、AHP方法對AMS易感人群預測指標進行了篩選，根據(jù)目標一致性原則、客觀可靠性原則、直接可測性原則、簡單易行性原則和動態(tài)發(fā)展性原則，建立了AMS易感人群預測指標體系，并科學地確定了指標權(quán)重和指標體系權(quán)集。之后，根據(jù)綜合預測數(shù)學模型基本原理和模型方法，結(jié)合AMS易感人群預測實際，選用了加權(quán)線性綜合法，建立了《急性高原病易感人群預測模型》。在模型的實證研究中，通過Kappa值法，對一組60名青年戰(zhàn)士的預測結(jié)果與實際發(fā)病情況進行了 WP=7 驗證，取得相當滿意的一致程度（Kappa值≈0.86＞0.75）。最后，擬定了《大部隊急進高原急性高原病易感人群預測方案》，并利用計算機技術(shù)，實現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)的采集、計算和評價的自動化。
[Abstract]:When moving rapidly into the plateau, whether from the plain to the plateau, or from the low-altitude area into the high-altitude area. It is inevitable that acute high altitude disease (AMS) will occur in the population. According to the data, it is necessary to develop acute high altitude disease (AMS). The incidence of AMS is very high when troops rush into high altitude, which often results in a large number of non-combat attrition. Many studies have pointed out that there is indeed a population susceptible to AMS in the population, therefore, if it can be predicted, it can be screened. It is a practical, effective and economical method to reduce the incidence of AMS by avoiding the susceptible person from entering the plateau and controlling the population base of AMS from the source. On the basis of the previous "hard science" (plateau medicine, etc.) research, the subject adopts the "soft science" method to analyze, evaluate and synthesize the existing research results. To establish a simple, efficient, accurate AMS susceptible population prediction system, to build a AMS susceptible population prediction model, to form a suitable for large troops to enter the plateau, has the maneuverability of AMS susceptible population prediction program. The achievements of plateau medical research will be transformed into the actual health support ability of plateau. This paper firstly defines the susceptible population of AMS scientifically. Through literature investigation and field investigation on the plateau, this paper systematically arranges the existing prediction index of susceptible population of AMS. On this basis. By means of systematic analysis, expert consultation and AHP method, the prediction indexes of susceptible population of AMS were screened. According to the principle of objective consistency, objective reliability and direct testability. Based on the principle of simplicity and dynamic development, the prediction index system of susceptible population of AMS is established, and the weight of index and the weight set of index system are scientifically determined. According to the basic principle and method of comprehensive prediction mathematical model, combined with AMS susceptible population forecasting practice, the weighted linear synthesis method is selected. In the empirical study of the model, the prediction results of 60 young soldiers and the actual incidence of the disease were studied by using Kappa value method. WP=7 The results showed that the Kappa value was 0.86 > 0.75. Finally, the prediction scheme of population susceptible to acute plateau disease was developed. And the use of computer technology, data acquisition, calculation and evaluation of automation.
【學位授予單位】：第三軍醫(yī)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2002
【分類號】：R82

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