本文選題：Possion廣義相加模型 + 氣象　； 參考：《環(huán)境與健康雜志》2016年08期

【摘要】：目的定量研究哈爾濱市日均氣溫對(duì)居民心腦血管疾病死亡的急性影響,為人群心腦血管疾病的預(yù)防提供依據(jù)。方法收集2013—2014年哈爾濱市心腦血管疾病死亡資料及氣象、大氣污染物資料,采用廣義相加模型研究哈爾濱市四季日均氣溫與居民心腦血管疾病日死亡率的關(guān)系,同時(shí)控制時(shí)間趨勢(shì)、星期幾效應(yīng)、大氣污染物等混雜因素的影響。結(jié)果 2013—2014年哈爾濱市日均氣溫為4.77℃,日均心腦血管死亡人數(shù)為97例。31歲及以上的心血管疾病人群易受氣溫影響,女性發(fā)生心腦血管疾病死亡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高于男性。全年平均氣溫滯后1、5 d時(shí),氣溫升高1℃人群心腦血管疾病死亡人數(shù)分別上升0.14%和0.18%;春季平均氣溫滯后3~6 d時(shí),每升高1℃人群心腦血管疾病死亡人數(shù)上升0.21%~0.26%;夏、秋季平均氣溫每升高1°C時(shí),當(dāng)日人群心腦血管疾病死亡人數(shù)上升1.22%和0.27%,上述均有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.05)。結(jié)論哈爾濱市日均氣溫與心腦血管疾病日死亡數(shù)有關(guān),且存在滯后效應(yīng)。應(yīng)建立適合該市的心腦血管疾病人群氣象預(yù)警模型,提高高危人群在春夏季的疾病防控意識(shí),降低由氣溫誘發(fā)的心腦血管疾病死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the acute effect of daily mean temperature on the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Harbin, and to provide evidence for prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Methods the data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, meteorological and atmospheric pollutants in Harbin from 2013 to 2014 were collected, and the relationship between the daily mean temperature of four seasons and the daily mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Harbin was studied by generalized additive model. At the same time, control the time trend, week effect, air pollutants and other mixed factors. Results the average daily air temperature was 4.77 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：2032937