本文選題：傾向性評分 + 隨機(jī)森林　； 參考：《中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)》2016年04期

【摘要】：目的探討利用隨機(jī)森林傾向性評分法控制混雜因素的基本思想和步驟,及其在藥品不良反應(yīng)信號(hào)檢測中的應(yīng)用。方法利用隨機(jī)森林計(jì)算給定危險(xiǎn)因素的條件下研究對象服用雙膦酸鹽的概率,而后分別通過傾向性評分1:1匹配,1:M匹配和回歸調(diào)整法控制性別、年齡等混雜因素,分析服藥雙膦酸鹽與骨折發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系,并與logistic回歸傾向性評分法對應(yīng)結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較。結(jié)果隨機(jī)森林傾向性評分法與logistic回歸傾向性評分方法的結(jié)果是一致的。其中,傾向性評分1:1匹配樣本量損失較大,且與1:M匹配和回歸調(diào)整法的結(jié)果相差較大。結(jié)論隨機(jī)森林傾向性評分法能有效控制藥品不良反應(yīng)信號(hào)檢測過程中的混雜因素,可以與logistic回歸傾向性評分法所得結(jié)果相互驗(yàn)證,提高結(jié)果的可靠性;但1∶1匹配可能不適用于藥品自發(fā)呈報(bào)系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the basic idea and procedure of controlling confounding factors by using random forest tendency scoring method and its application in the detection of adverse drug reaction signals. Methods using random forest to calculate the probability of taking bisphosphonate under the condition of given risk factors, and then to control gender, age and other mixed factors by the inclination score of 1:1 matching 1: M matching and regression adjustment. The relationship between bisphosphonates and fracture risk was analyzed and compared with the corresponding results of logistic regression evaluation. Results the results of the random forest tendency scoring method and the logistic regression tendency scoring method were consistent. Among them, the bias score of 1:1 matching sample size loss is larger, and the result of 1: M matching and regression adjustment method is quite different from that of 1: M matching and regression adjustment method. Conclusion the random forest tendency scoring method can effectively control the confounding factors in the detection of adverse drug reaction signals, and can be verified with the results obtained by logistic regression tendency scoring method, and the reliability of the results can be improved. But 1:1 matching may not be applicable to spontaneous drug reporting system data.
【作者單位】： 第二軍醫(yī)大學(xué)衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)教研室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(No.81373105,81502895)
【分類號(hào)】：R954

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