本文選題：冠心病 + 健康管理隊列　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：目的構(gòu)建基于山東省健康管理隊列的冠心病風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型。方法構(gòu)建山東省健康管理隊列,基于國際上較為通用的冠心病風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型變量,應(yīng)用Cox比例風(fēng)險回歸模型進行單因素分析,利用競爭風(fēng)險模型建立心腦血管事件預(yù)測模型,使用十折交叉驗證法檢驗?zāi)Ｐ头�(wěn)定性。結(jié)果共納入隊列73 386人,其中男41 968人,女31 418人。隊列中位隨訪時間3.10年。經(jīng)隨訪共有1 545人發(fā)生冠心病,其中男958人,發(fā)病密度為5.95/1 000人年;女587人,發(fā)病密度為4.90/1 000人年。建立的男性模型AUC為0.809(95CI:0.804~0.815),O/E值為0.98;女性模型AUC為0.869(95%CI:0.863~0.874),O/E值為1.02。經(jīng)十折交叉內(nèi)部驗證,男性模型AUC為0.806(95%CI:0.801~0.812),女性為0.866(95%CI:0.860~0.872)。結(jié)論構(gòu)建的冠心病預(yù)測模型在健康管理隊列中有較好的預(yù)測能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to construct a risk prediction model of coronary heart disease based on health management cohort in Shandong province. Methods the health management cohort of Shandong Province was constructed. The Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the single factor and the competitive risk model was used to establish the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events prediction model. The stability of the model was tested by a ten-fold cross-validation method. Results A total of 73 386 persons were enrolled, including 41 968 males and 31 418 females. The median follow-up time was 3. 10 years. A total of 1 545 patients with coronary heart disease were followed up, of whom 958 were males with an incidence density of 5.95 / 1 000 person-years, and 587 females with an incidence density of 4.90 / 1 000 person-years. The AUC of male model was 0.809 / 95CI: 0.804 / 0.804 / 0. 15 / O / E = 0.98, and the value of female model AUC was 0.869 / 95 / 0. 863 / 0.874 / E = 1.02respectively. The results showed that the male model AUC was 0.806 / 95CI: 0.801 / 0.812, and the female's was 0.866 / 95CI / 0.860 / 0.887 / 2. Conclusion the predictive model of coronary heart disease has good predictive ability in health management cohort.
【作者單位】： 濟寧醫(yī)學(xué)院附屬醫(yī)院健康管理中心;山東大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院生物統(tǒng)計學(xué)系;山東大學(xué)齊魯生物醫(yī)學(xué)大數(shù)據(jù)研究中心;山東大學(xué)齊魯醫(yī)院手術(shù)室;
【基金】：國家國際科技合作專項項目(2014DFA32830) 山東省醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生科技發(fā)展計劃項目(2013WS0230)
【分類號】：R541.4

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