胰十二指腸切除術(shù)后腹腔感染的多因素Logistic回歸分析及風(fēng)險評估
發(fā)布時間:2018-05-07 12:02
本文選題:胰十二指腸切除術(shù) + 腹腔感染 ; 參考:《中國煤炭工業(yè)醫(yī)學(xué)雜志》2016年12期
【摘要】:目的探討胰十二指腸切除術(shù)后腹腔感染的發(fā)生率及其高危因素。方法回顧性分析2014年1月—2015年12月行胰十二指腸切除和Child法消化道重建128例患者的臨床資料,通過單因素分析與多因素分析方法篩選出與PD術(shù)后發(fā)生腹腔感染相關(guān)的因素,并建立腹腔感染的風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型,應(yīng)用受試者工作特征曲線(ROC曲線)對該系統(tǒng)檢驗效能進行評價。結(jié)果 128例胰十二指腸切除術(shù)后發(fā)生腹腔感染52例,發(fā)病率為40.6%。單因素分析結(jié)果顯示術(shù)前黃疸1個月、胰瘺、腹腔積液為危險因素;進一步將其納入多因素Logistic回歸分析,提示三者均為腹腔感染的獨立危險因素。根據(jù)回歸系數(shù)建立術(shù)后腹腔感染風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型,評分系統(tǒng)的ROC曲線下面積為0.716±0.046(P0.05)。結(jié)論胰十二指腸切除術(shù)后腹腔感染的發(fā)生與術(shù)前黃疸時間、胰瘺和術(shù)后腹腔積液密切相關(guān),根據(jù)回歸方程建立的風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型能夠較好的預(yù)測胰十二指腸切除術(shù)后腹腔感染的發(fā)生,術(shù)后應(yīng)重視預(yù)防和早期診治。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the incidence and high risk factors of abdominal infection after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Methods the clinical data of 128 patients with pancreaticoduodenectomy and Child digestive tract reconstruction from January 2014 to December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. The factors associated with abdominal infection after PD were screened by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis. The risk prediction model of abdominal infection was established, and the test effectiveness of the system was evaluated by using the operating characteristic curve and ROC curve. Results there were 52 cases of abdominal infection after pancreaticoduodenectomy, and the incidence was 40.6%. The results of univariate analysis showed that preoperative jaundice, pancreatic fistula and peritoneal effusion were risk factors, which were further analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis, which indicated that the three factors were independent risk factors of abdominal infection. According to the regression coefficient, a prediction model of postoperative abdominal infection risk was established. The area under the ROC curve of the scoring system was 0.716 鹵0.046 (P 0.05). Conclusion the incidence of intraperitoneal infection after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely related to preoperative jaundice time, pancreatic fistula and postoperative peritoneal effusion. The risk prediction model based on regression equation can predict the incidence of abdominal infection after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Prevention and early diagnosis and treatment should be paid attention to after operation.
【作者單位】: 安徽醫(yī)科大學(xué)附屬安徽省立醫(yī)院普外科;
【基金】:安徽省科技計劃項目(編號:1506c085018) 安徽省自然科學(xué)基金(編號:1408085QH188)
【分類號】:R657.5
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