季節(jié)性流感與禽流感傳播的建模與研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-20 10:14
本文選題:季節(jié)性流感 + 禽流感; 參考:《信陽師范學院》2012年碩士論文
【摘要】:甲型流感病毒H5N1亞型,也稱為H5N1禽流感,是甲型流感病毒的一個高致病性亞型.它可以通過連續(xù)變異和自發(fā)變異兩種進化機制演變成一種新的流感病毒,這種病毒具有較高發(fā)病率和死亡率,我們稱之為大流行流感病毒,這種病毒的病原體能反復地感染人群.本文建立和研究了季節(jié)性流感與禽流感共同傳播且考慮禽流感病毒變異的疾病傳播模型,此模型中包含這兩種進化機制和三種類型的流感:季節(jié)性流感,H5N1禽流感和由H5N1禽流感變異而成的大流行流感,并假設流感之間存在共同感染.假設總人口為常數(shù),采用雙線性發(fā)生率,得到了基本再生數(shù)和入侵再生數(shù)的表達式,分析了無病平衡點、流感占優(yōu)平衡點和共存平衡點的存在性,證明了部分平衡點的穩(wěn)定性.
[Abstract]:Influenza A H5N1 subtype, also known as H5N1 avian influenza, is a highly pathogenic subtype of influenza A virus. It can evolve into a new influenza virus through two evolutionary mechanisms, continuous mutation and spontaneous mutation, which have high morbidity and mortality, which we call pandemic influenza viruses. The pathogen of the virus can infect people repeatedly. In this paper, we have established and studied a disease transmission model in which seasonal influenza and avian influenza are co-transmitted and the variation of avian influenza virus is considered. The model includes these two evolutionary mechanisms and three types of influenza: seasonal influenza, H5N1 avian influenza, and pandemic influenza, mutated from H5N1 avian influenza, and assumes that there is a co-infection between influenza. Assuming that the total population is constant, the expressions of basic regeneration number and invasion regeneration number are obtained by using bilinear incidence. The existence of disease-free equilibrium point, influenza dominant equilibrium point and coexistence equilibrium point are analyzed, and the stability of partial equilibrium point is proved.
【學位授予單位】:信陽師范學院
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2012
【分類號】:R311;O175
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,本文編號:1777348
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