人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在預(yù)測輸尿管結(jié)石自行排出中的應(yīng)用研究
本文選題:輸尿管結(jié)石 + 神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(計(jì)算機(jī)); 參考:《中國全科醫(yī)學(xué)》2016年20期
【摘要】:目的運(yùn)用人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建立輸尿管結(jié)石自行排出的預(yù)測模型,并轉(zhuǎn)化成臨床應(yīng)用。方法選取2013年1—8月在石河子大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院第一附屬醫(yī)院泌尿外科門診就診的輸尿管結(jié)石患者225例。經(jīng)保守排石治療4周后,復(fù)查泌尿系B超或CT判斷結(jié)石是否排出,并將患者分為排石組和未排石組。通過單因素分析篩選出影響結(jié)石排出的因素,將這些因素作為預(yù)測參數(shù)建立人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò),并對(duì)68例測試集樣本進(jìn)行預(yù)測。繪制預(yù)測擬概率的ROC曲線,并計(jì)算ROC曲線下面積評(píng)價(jià)預(yù)測效能。結(jié)果排石組141例,未排石組84例。單因素分析結(jié)果顯示兩組患者性別、體質(zhì)指數(shù)、膀胱刺激征、側(cè)別、腎盂積水、尿p H值、血尿、淋巴細(xì)胞計(jì)數(shù)比較,差異均無統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.05);兩組患者年齡、疼痛程度、結(jié)石直徑、結(jié)石位置、血白細(xì)胞計(jì)數(shù)、中性粒細(xì)胞計(jì)數(shù)、中性粒細(xì)胞分?jǐn)?shù)、淋巴細(xì)胞分?jǐn)?shù)、C反應(yīng)蛋白水平比較,差異均有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.05)。運(yùn)行人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò),輸入層共建立9個(gè)神經(jīng)元。系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)體系構(gòu)建兩個(gè)隱含層,輸出層有1個(gè)神經(jīng)元。預(yù)測變量重要性前3位分別是:結(jié)石直徑(0.20)、C反應(yīng)蛋白(0.18)、年齡(0.12)。運(yùn)用建立成功的人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)68例測試集樣本進(jìn)行預(yù)測,結(jié)果顯示,測試集樣本的靈敏度、特異度和總準(zhǔn)確率分別為93.3%、60.9%和82.4%,ROC曲線下面積為0.868〔95%CI(0.774,0.962)〕。結(jié)論人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測輸尿管結(jié)石能否排出有較高的準(zhǔn)確率,可輔助臨床醫(yī)師為患者制定安全、合理的治療方案。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a prediction model of ureteral calculi excretion by artificial neural network (Ann) and transform it into clinical application. Methods 225 patients with ureteral calculi were selected from January to August 2013 in Urology Department of the first affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University Medical College. After 4 weeks of conservative lithotomy treatment, the patients were divided into two groups: lithotomy group and non-lithotomy group. Factors affecting stone excretion were screened by single factor analysis. Artificial neural network was established by using these factors as predictive parameters and 68 test samples were predicted. The ROC curve of the prediction quasi probability is drawn and the area under the ROC curve is calculated to evaluate the prediction efficiency. Results there were 141 cases in the lithotomy group and 84 cases in the non-lithotomy group. Univariate analysis showed that there were no significant differences in sex, BMI, bladder irritation, side, hydronephrosis, urine pH, hematuria and lymphocyte count between the two groups. There were significant differences in stone diameter, stone location, leukocyte count, neutrophil fraction, lymphocyte fraction and C-reactive protein level (P 0.05). An artificial neural network was run and nine neurons were established in the input layer. The system automatically constructs two hidden layers with one neuron in the output layer. The first three positions of predictive variable importance were: stone diameter 0.20 C reactive protein 0.18, age 0.12. A successful artificial neural network was used to predict 68 test samples. The results showed that the sensitivity, specificity and total accuracy of the test samples were 93.30.9% and 82.4%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86895%. Conclusion artificial neural network can predict whether ureteral calculi can be excreted with high accuracy and can assist clinicians to make safe and reasonable treatment plan for patients with ureteral calculi.
【作者單位】: 石河子大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院第一附屬醫(yī)院泌尿外科;
【基金】:國家科技支撐計(jì)劃子課題(2013BAI05B05) 新疆生產(chǎn)建設(shè)兵團(tuán)醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目科技援疆專項(xiàng)(2014AB052)
【分類號(hào)】:R693.4
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