【摘要】：目的描述石家莊市大氣污染現(xiàn)狀及大氣污染物(PM_(2.5))的污染特征;分析大氣污染對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)等各等級(jí)門診指標(biāo)就診人次的影響;探討大氣污染對(duì)兒童產(chǎn)生的急性影響,為采取有效干預(yù)措施、保護(hù)兒童健康提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。方法收集2013-2015年石家莊市氣象、環(huán)保及某兒童醫(yī)院門診資料;描述性分析石家莊市大氣污染現(xiàn)狀及大氣污染物(PM_(2.5))的污染特征與某兒童醫(yī)院各等級(jí)門診就診情況;通過(guò)Spearman相關(guān)性分析探討大氣污染物與氣象因素、大氣污染物與門診量、氣象因素與門診量之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系;分析不同大氣污染物在不同濃度等級(jí)下對(duì)某兒童醫(yī)院各等級(jí)門診指標(biāo)的影響;應(yīng)用時(shí)間序列分析方法建立廣義相加(GAM)模型,分析大氣污染物對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門診量的影響及污染物的滯后效應(yīng),定量描述、評(píng)價(jià)大氣污染對(duì)兒童健康的影響。結(jié)果1石家莊市大氣污染特征分析:2013-2015年石家莊市大氣污染物PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、NO_2、SO_2日均濃度分別為221.18μg/m3、118.14μg/m3、55.09μg/m3、70.28μg/m3,均超過(guò)國(guó)家《環(huán)境空氣質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)》(GB3095-2012),其中PM_(2.5)超標(biāo)倍數(shù)最多;四種污染物的日均濃度變化具有一定的季節(jié)性,最高值分布在1、12月,最低值分布在7-9月;在對(duì)大氣污染物(PM_(2.5))的成分分析中顯示,2015年P(guān)M_(2.5)中多環(huán)芳烴年均濃度由高到低依次為:苯并[g,h,i]傒苯并[a]蒽芘熒蒽苯并[b]熒蒽屈茚并[1,2,3-cd]芘苯并[a]芘;PM_(2.5)中7種重金屬元素的濃度范圍是1.00×10-8~3.05×10-4mg/m3,平均濃度由高到低依次為PbMnAsCrCdNiHg,參考《環(huán)境空氣質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)》(GB3095-2012),苯并[a]芘、金屬As的平均濃度超過(guò)國(guó)家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)限值。2石家莊市大氣污染對(duì)某兒童醫(yī)院就診情況的影響:門診總量與4種污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)(P0.01);呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門診量與PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2存在明顯的正相關(guān);J00-J06每日入診人次與4種大氣污染物呈顯著正相關(guān)(P0.01);通過(guò)GAM模型分析,NO_2、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)每升高10μg/m3,分別使當(dāng)天超額入診風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加0.44%(95%CI:0.18,0.71)、0.17%(95%CI:0.08,0.25)、0.1%(95%CI:0.04,0.15),SO_2濃度的增加對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門診量的影響主要在當(dāng)天和滯后的1-3天,尤其是當(dāng)天的影響較大。結(jié)論1 2013-2015年石家莊市大氣污染較嚴(yán)重且呈現(xiàn)季節(jié)性變化,表現(xiàn)為冬季高于夏季;對(duì)比PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2,大氣污染物PM_(2.5)的污染最重,PM_(2.5)的成分中苯并[a]芘及金屬As的污染較重。2石家莊市大氣污染物PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2濃度增高可能會(huì)致使兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門診量和J00-J06的每日入診人次增加,PM_(10)濃度的增高可能使J00-J06每日入診人次增加;通過(guò)時(shí)間序列分析可知大氣污染物SO_2對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門診量的影響可能存在1-3天的滯后效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Objective to describe the present situation of air pollution in Shijiazhuang City and the pollution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5), to analyze the effects of air pollution on children's respiratory system and other outpatient visits, and to explore the acute effects of air pollution on children. To provide scientific basis for taking effective intervention measures and protecting children's health. Methods the data of meteorological, environmental protection and outpatient clinic of a children's hospital in Shijiazhuang city from 2013 to 2015 were collected, and the status quo of air pollution in Shijiazhuang city, the pollution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5) and the outpatient visits of each grade in a children's hospital were analyzed. The correlation between atmospheric pollutants and meteorological factors, between atmospheric pollutants and outpatient quantities, and between meteorological factors and outpatient quantities was discussed by Spearman correlation analysis. This paper analyzes the influence of different atmospheric pollutants on the outpatient index of each grade in a children's hospital under different concentration levels, and establishes a generalized additive (GAM) model by using time series analysis method. The effects of air pollutants on children's respiratory diseases were analyzed. The effects of air pollutants on children's health were described quantitatively and the effects of air pollutants on children's health were evaluated. Results 1 the analysis of air pollution characteristics in Shijiazhuang City from 2013 to 2015 showed that the average daily concentration of PM10 / PM2.5 and no _ 2 / so _ 2 in Shijiazhuang was 221.18 渭 g/m3118.14 / m ~ (3) and 55.09 渭 g / m ~ (3) / m ~ (3), respectively, which exceeded the National Environmental Air quality Standard (GB3095-2012), among which PM_ (2. 5) exceeded the national air quality standard (GB3095-2012), and the average daily concentration was 221.18 渭 g/m3118.14 / m ~ (3) / m ~ (3), 70.28 渭 g / m ~ (3) above the national ambient air quality standard (GB3095-2012). The daily average concentration of the four pollutants varied seasonally, with the highest value distributed in January, December and the lowest in July-September. An analysis of the composition of atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5) shows that the average annual concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM2.5 in 2015 are seven heavy metal elements in benzo [gaphani] benzo [a] pyrene fluoranthracene [b] fluorinine [1o 23-cd] benzo [a] pyrene PPM _ (2.5) in order of which the average annual concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM2.5 is in the order of high to low. The range of concentration is 1.00 脳 10-8, 3.05 脳 10-4 mg / m3, the average concentration is PbMnAsCrCdNiHg from high to low, referring to ambient air quality standard (GB3095-2012), benzo [a] pyrene, The average concentration of as in Shijiazhuang is higher than the national standard. 2. The influence of air pollution on the visit to a children's hospital in Shijiazhuang City: the total amount of outpatient service is negatively correlated with the four kinds of pollutants (PM2.5 / PM10) and so _ 2 / no _ 2 (P0.01); the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases and the presence of PM2.5 / so _ 2no _ 2 are obviously negative (P0.01). There was a significant positive correlation between the number of visits per day and the four kinds of atmospheric pollutants (P0.01), and the analysis of each 10 渭 g / m ~ (3) increase of 10 渭 g / m _ (10) of no _ 2 PM_ (2.5) / PM10 by GAM model increased the risk of over-admission by 0.44% (95: 0.180.71) 0.17% (95CI: 0.08 ~ 0.25) by 0.1% (95: 0.040.15) by the increase of SO2 concentration in children's respiratory diseases. The effects are mainly on the same day and 1 to 3 days behind, In particular, the impact of the day is greater. Conclusion (1) the air pollution in Shijiazhuang from 2013 to 2015 is serious and seasonal, which is higher in winter than in summer. Comparing PM10 with SO2NO2, the most polluted components of atmospheric pollutant PM2.5 are benzo [a] pyrene and heavy pollution of as. 2 the higher concentration of PM2.5 and metal as in Shijiazhuang may lead to the outpatient consultation of respiratory diseases in children and the daily visit to J00-J06. The increase of PM10 concentration may increase the daily visits of J00-J06. Time series analysis showed that there might be a lag effect of 1-3 days in the effect of air pollutant SO_2 on the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases in children.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R725.6

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