本文選題：口蹄疫 + 自然保護(hù)區(qū)　； 參考：《東北林業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球氣候的變化、環(huán)境的惡化、人類活動對氣候以及生境的干擾等多方面原因的影響,人們開始對所有可能影響物種豐富度的因素重視起來。野生動物源性疫病正是危害物種多樣性的一個重要因素,在近20年的時間里,野生動物源性疫病在全球范圍內(nèi)廣泛傳播�？谔阋呔褪且环N古老的野生動物源性疫病,在近些年來發(fā)病數(shù)也成增高趨勢,對于感染的動物幼崽的致死率極高,很有可能會給動物的多樣性帶來影響。所以對該病進(jìn)行早期預(yù)防顯得尤為重要。本文通過利用MAXENT模型和ARIMA模型分別對口蹄疫的分布及發(fā)病數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,希望可以通過將兩個模型結(jié)合起來應(yīng)用,為口蹄疫的發(fā)生進(jìn)行預(yù)測預(yù)警,為制定防控策略提供參考。本文首先利用MAXENT模型對口蹄疫的全球分布進(jìn)行預(yù)測：通過對文獻(xiàn)的閱讀,對OIE報道的整理,統(tǒng)計出世界范圍內(nèi)口蹄疫發(fā)生地的地理坐標(biāo)點,從世界氣象數(shù)據(jù)庫中下載環(huán)境因子,包括生物因子、海拔、平均最高溫度、平均最低溫度和平均溫度,將環(huán)境數(shù)據(jù)用DIVA-GIS軟件進(jìn)行格式轉(zhuǎn)換,轉(zhuǎn)換成MAXENT所需要的格式,然后與坐標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)一同輸入到軟件中進(jìn)行處預(yù)測,最后得出口蹄疫在全球范圍內(nèi)的可能分布區(qū)域。并且通過對ROC曲線、刀切法圖的分析,得出：口蹄疫一般在旱季、雨季、年降水量較多且氣候為熱帶或者亞熱帶的地區(qū)發(fā)生的比較明顯。根據(jù)MAXENT梯度預(yù)測圖可以看出我國的口蹄疫高危分布區(qū)在我國的西南部,這一預(yù)測結(jié)果也同我國西南部氣候條件相吻合。通過對我國西南部地區(qū)野生動物資源的了解,選擇偶蹄類動物較多的西藏自治區(qū)進(jìn)行ARIMA時間序列預(yù)測,驗證ARIMA時間序列預(yù)測模型在口蹄疫疫病預(yù)測的可靠性。實驗結(jié)果顯示預(yù)測值可以同實際值很好的吻合,該模型適用于口蹄疫的短期預(yù)測。通過本文的研究得出：MAXENT模型可以科學(xué)的對口蹄疫可能發(fā)生區(qū)域進(jìn)行風(fēng)險預(yù)測,通過直觀的梯度預(yù)測圖,可以簡單明了的表明出口蹄疫的高危分布區(qū),ARIMA模型可以針對某一高危分布區(qū),通過對發(fā)病情況資料收集整理,從而進(jìn)行具體發(fā)病數(shù)的短期預(yù)測,為我國以后口蹄疫疫病的防控提供較為科學(xué)的參考。
[Abstract]:With the change of global climate, the deterioration of environment, the influence of human activities on climate and habitat interference, people begin to pay attention to all possible factors affecting species richness. Wild animal borne blight is an important factor that endangers species diversity. In recent 20 years, wild animal borne disease has been widely spread in the world. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an ancient wild animal blight. In recent years, the incidence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is also increasing. The mortality of infected cubs is very high, which may affect the diversity of animals. Therefore, the early prevention of the disease is particularly important. In this paper, the distribution and incidence of foot-and-mouth disease are predicted by using Maxent model and Arima model respectively. It is hoped that the two models can be combined to predict and warn the occurrence of foot-and-mouth disease and to provide a reference for the formulation of prevention and control strategy. In this paper, the global distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is predicted by using Maxent model. By reading the literature and sorting out the reports of OIE, the geographical coordinates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurring in the world are calculated, and the environmental factors are downloaded from the world meteorological database. Including biological factors, altitude, mean maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and average temperature, converting the environmental data into the format needed by using the DIVA-GIS software, converting it into the format needed by Maxent, and then inputting the coordinate data into the software for prediction. Finally, the possible distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in the world is obtained. Through the analysis of ROC curve and knife cutting chart, it is concluded that the occurrence of foot-and-mouth disease is more obvious in dry season, rainy season, annual precipitation and tropical or subtropical climate. According to the MAXENT gradient prediction map, it can be seen that the high risk distribution area of foot-and-mouth disease in China is in the southwest of China, and the predicted results are consistent with the climate conditions of southwest China. Based on the understanding of wildlife resources in southwestern China, Arima time series prediction was carried out in Tibet Autonomous region, where there were more cloven-hoofed animals, and the reliability of Arima time series prediction model for foot-and-mouth disease was verified. The experimental results show that the predicted values are in good agreement with the actual values, and the model is suitable for the short-term prediction of foot-and-mouth disease. Through the research of this paper, it is concluded that the proportion of MAXENT model can be used to predict the risk of foot-and-mouth disease. It can be shown simply and clearly that the Arima model of high risk distribution area of foot-and-mouth disease can be used for a certain high risk distribution area, by collecting and sorting out the incidence data, so as to make short-term prediction of the specific incidence number. It provides a scientific reference for the prevention and control of foot-and-mouth disease in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：S855.3

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本文編號：2089355