本文選題：貝葉斯推斷 + 施馬倫貝格病毒　； 參考：《動物醫(yī)學(xué)進展》2017年06期

【摘要】：為明確德國輸入中國牛精液產(chǎn)品攜帶施馬倫貝格病毒(Schmallenberg virus,SBV)的風(fēng)險狀況,基于世界動物衛(wèi)生組織(OIE)風(fēng)險評估的框架,結(jié)合貝葉斯統(tǒng)計推斷的方法,開展德國輸入中國牛精液產(chǎn)品攜帶施馬倫貝格病毒的輸入風(fēng)險評估。釋放評估顯示,德國畜群存在施馬倫貝格病毒病的釋放風(fēng)險,SBV的發(fā)生率分布在1.227e-006到2.297e-006之間(95%Confidence interval,CI),牛精液供體動物SBV陽性率分布在7.8e-008到5.2e-007之間(95%Bayesian credible interval,BCI)。精液輸華攜帶SBV入境評估模擬顯示,出口中國的一批次精液中可能的假陰性概率分布在5.4191e-007到0.0006之間(95%BCI),其意義為輸入10 000批次的精液,假陰性檢出的批次在97.5%概率內(nèi)分布在6個批次以內(nèi),大于6個批次的假陰性概率小于2.5%,檢出一個批次假陰性的概率大于73.77%。暴露評估顯示,基于德國存在SBV釋放風(fēng)險,該國精液輸入會對我國養(yǎng)殖畜群產(chǎn)生暴露風(fēng)險。損失模擬顯示,SBV一旦輸入,保守估計損失超過100億元人民幣的可能性大于95%,超過320億元人民幣的概率小于10.71%,84.27%的置信度內(nèi)(BCI)損失會在100億元~320億元之間。
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the risk status of Schmallenberg virus carrying Schmallenberg virus SBV in imported Chinese bovine semen products from Germany, based on the framework of OIEs risk assessment of the World Organization for Animal Health, combined with Bayesian statistical inference method, Carry out an import risk assessment of German imported Chinese bovine semen products carrying Smarimberger virus. The release assessment showed that the risk of Schmalenberger's disease existed in German cattle. The incidence of SBV was between 1.227e-006 and 2.297e-006. The positive rate of bovine semen donor was between 7.8e-008 and 5.2e-007, and the positive rate of SBV was between 7.8e-008 and 5.2e-007. Simulation of the entry of semen into China for carrying SBVindicates that the probability of false negative in a batch of semen exported to China ranges from 5.4191e-007 to 0.0006 (95 I +), which means that 10 000 batches of semen are imported. The false negative detected batches were within 6 batches in 97.5% probability, the false negative probability of more than 6 batches was less than 2.5 and the probability of detecting one batch false-negative was more than 73.77. Exposure assessment showed that, based on the existence of SBV release risk in Germany, semen entry in Germany would pose a risk of exposure to livestock in China. The loss simulation shows that the probability of loss exceeding 10 billion RMB is greater than 95 RMB once input, and the probability of losing more than 32 billion RMB is less than 10.71RMB 84.27% confidence level) loss will be between 10 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan.
【作者單位】： 中國動物衛(wèi)生與流行病學(xué)中心;云南省普洱市動物疫病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：牛羊“重要蟲媒病”關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究(201303035) 國家十三五重大科技專項(2016YFD0501104)
【分類號】：S852.65

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