西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)力評價及發(fā)展?jié)摿ρ芯?/H1>
發(fā)布時間：2018-03-12 17:10
本文選題：西北牧區(qū) 切入點：草食畜牧業(yè) 出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學》2017年碩士論文 論文類型：學位論文
【摘要】：西北地區(qū)地域遼闊,飼草資源豐富,是發(fā)展畜牧業(yè)的理想之地。并且在國家加快推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,推進農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革以及“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶”建設等宏觀背景下,國家一再強調(diào)優(yōu)化畜種結(jié)構(gòu)和區(qū)域布局,鼓勵調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)方式,大力支持發(fā)展草食畜牧業(yè)。因此,我國畜牧業(yè)主產(chǎn)區(qū)逐步向西北轉(zhuǎn)移已成必然趨勢。據(jù)此,研究西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)力水平和發(fā)展?jié)摿?旨在分析其在保障本地區(qū)動物源性食品消費需求的前提下,究竟能為區(qū)外提供多少畜產(chǎn)品?而且,西北牧區(qū)能否抓住國家實施畜牧業(yè)“西移北進”戰(zhàn)略的重大歷史機遇,使其草食畜牧業(yè)得以轉(zhuǎn)型升級和跨越式發(fā)展,值得深入分析研究,其結(jié)果可為國家宏觀政策調(diào)整和區(qū)域發(fā)展策略制定提供科學依據(jù)。本研究根據(jù)中國工程院重大戰(zhàn)略咨詢項目要求,“西北地區(qū)”包括陜西、甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆、山西以及內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)除東部4盟外的西部地區(qū),共涉及7個省區(qū)。本論文以上述區(qū)域的甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆以及內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)東部4盟外的牧區(qū)部分為研究對象,采取查閱文獻和年鑒資料、典型調(diào)查、專家咨詢等方式,應用主成分分析法和灰色預測法GM(1,1)模型,開展了西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)力評價及發(fā)展?jié)摿ρ芯�。獲得如下研究結(jié)果:一、西北牧區(qū)地廣人稀,草地資源豐富,總體而言,西北牧區(qū)草畜總體平衡,但天然草地超載嚴重,2015年當?shù)靥烊徊莸厣蟪d率高達34.4%。二、“十二五”期間,西北牧區(qū)牛羊肉產(chǎn)量呈逐年上升態(tài)勢,年均增幅分別為4.0%和2.9%,奶類產(chǎn)量有所下降,年均降幅為1.2%。2015年西北牧區(qū)畜產(chǎn)品在滿足當?shù)刈陨硐M外還可滿足該區(qū)域外21795.9萬城鄉(xiāng)居民的需要。三、主成分分析結(jié)果顯示,內(nèi)蒙古和新疆草食畜牧業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎優(yōu)勢和發(fā)展水平較高。影響產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要因素為牛羊出欄率、牧草單產(chǎn)等。四、預測結(jié)果顯示,2020年該地區(qū)牛羊肉產(chǎn)量較2015年可分別增加5.28萬t和24.12萬t,發(fā)展?jié)摿^大,奶類產(chǎn)量仍有所下降。如果到2020年,當?shù)仫暡菘偖a(chǎn)量提高25%、牛羊出欄率提高15%時,西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)就可以實現(xiàn)草畜全面平衡。五、根據(jù)預測結(jié)果以及優(yōu)化方案,對西北牧區(qū)發(fā)展草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)提出7點對策建議:(1)完善草原管理制度,依法落實各項管護措施;(2)改良天然草場,加強草原保護建設;(3)加強人工草地建設,推進牧草產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展;(4)轉(zhuǎn)變牛羊飼養(yǎng)模式,適當進行補飼;(5)成立專業(yè)合作社,加強信息平臺建設,推動畜產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易;(6)加大資金投入,積極落實各項補貼政策;(7)加大科技投入力度,加強科技創(chuàng)新和實用技術推廣,提高良種化程度和科技貢獻率。
[Abstract]:With its vast territory and abundant forage resources, Northwest China is an ideal place to develop animal husbandry. In the macro-background, such as accelerating the adjustment of the industrial structure, promoting the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, etc. The state has repeatedly emphasized the optimization of the structure and regional distribution of livestock species, encouraged the adjustment of structure and mode, and vigorously supported the development of herbivorous animal husbandry. Accordingly, the gradual transfer of the main livestock production areas of China to the northwest has become an inevitable trend. This paper studies the productivity level and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pastoral area in order to analyze how many animal products can be provided outside the area under the premise of ensuring the consumption demand of animal origin food in this area. Moreover, whether the northwest pastoral areas can seize the great historical opportunity for the country to implement the strategy of "moving from west to north", so that the herbivorous animal husbandry can be transformed and upgraded and developed by leaps and bounds, is worthy of in-depth analysis and study. The results can provide a scientific basis for the adjustment of national macro policy and the formulation of regional development strategies. According to the requirements of major strategic consulting projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the "Northwest region" includes Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and the western region of Inner Mongolia involve seven provinces and regions except for the east four alliances. This paper takes the pastoral areas of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as the research objects. By means of consulting literature and yearbook data, typical investigation, expert consultation and so on, the principal component analysis method and grey forecast method GM1 / 1) model were used. The study on productivity evaluation and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pasturing area was carried out. The results were as follows: 1. But the natural grassland overloading is serious, in 2015 the local natural grassland livestock overload rate is as high as 34.44.2.2.In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the beef and mutton production in the northwest pasturing area increased year by year, the average annual increase was 4.0% and 2.9 respectively, and the milk production decreased. The average annual decline is 1.20.The livestock products in northwest pastoral areas from 2015 to 2015 can meet the needs of two hundred and seventeen million nine hundred and fifty-nine thousand urban and rural residents outside the region in addition to their own consumption. Third, the principal component analysis results show that, The basic advantages and development level of herbivorous animal husbandry industry in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are relatively high. The main factors affecting the development of the industry are cattle and sheep herding rate, forage yield per unit yield, etc. The forecast results showed that the yield of beef and mutton in this area could increase 52,800 t and 241,200 t respectively compared with 2015 on 2020, and the development potential was great, and the milk yield was still decreasing. If the total yield of forage was increased by 25% by 2020, and the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t, the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t. The production of herbivorous animal husbandry in the pastoral area of Northwest China can achieve an overall balance. Fifthly, according to the forecast results and the optimization scheme, the paper puts forward seven countermeasures and suggestions for the development of herbivorous animal husbandry production in the pastoral area of northwest China) and consummates the grassland management system. Carrying out various management and conservation measures according to law: improving natural pasture, strengthening grassland protection and construction, strengthening artificial grassland construction, promoting the development of herbage industrialization, changing the raising mode of cattle and sheep, properly carrying out supplementary feeding, setting up specialized cooperatives, Strengthening the construction of information platform, promoting livestock product trade to increase the investment of funds, actively implementing various subsidy policies and increasing the intensity of scientific and technological investment, strengthening scientific and technological innovation and practical technology popularization, improving the degree of seed production and the rate of contribution of science and technology.
【學位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.3
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本文選題：西北牧區(qū) 切入點：草食畜牧業(yè) 出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學》2017年碩士論文 論文類型：學位論文
【摘要】：西北地區(qū)地域遼闊,飼草資源豐富,是發(fā)展畜牧業(yè)的理想之地。并且在國家加快推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,推進農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革以及“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶”建設等宏觀背景下,國家一再強調(diào)優(yōu)化畜種結(jié)構(gòu)和區(qū)域布局,鼓勵調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)方式,大力支持發(fā)展草食畜牧業(yè)。因此,我國畜牧業(yè)主產(chǎn)區(qū)逐步向西北轉(zhuǎn)移已成必然趨勢。據(jù)此,研究西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)力水平和發(fā)展?jié)摿?旨在分析其在保障本地區(qū)動物源性食品消費需求的前提下,究竟能為區(qū)外提供多少畜產(chǎn)品?而且,西北牧區(qū)能否抓住國家實施畜牧業(yè)“西移北進”戰(zhàn)略的重大歷史機遇,使其草食畜牧業(yè)得以轉(zhuǎn)型升級和跨越式發(fā)展,值得深入分析研究,其結(jié)果可為國家宏觀政策調(diào)整和區(qū)域發(fā)展策略制定提供科學依據(jù)。本研究根據(jù)中國工程院重大戰(zhàn)略咨詢項目要求,“西北地區(qū)”包括陜西、甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆、山西以及內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)除東部4盟外的西部地區(qū),共涉及7個省區(qū)。本論文以上述區(qū)域的甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆以及內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)東部4盟外的牧區(qū)部分為研究對象,采取查閱文獻和年鑒資料、典型調(diào)查、專家咨詢等方式,應用主成分分析法和灰色預測法GM(1,1)模型,開展了西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)力評價及發(fā)展?jié)摿ρ芯�。獲得如下研究結(jié)果:一、西北牧區(qū)地廣人稀,草地資源豐富,總體而言,西北牧區(qū)草畜總體平衡,但天然草地超載嚴重,2015年當?shù)靥烊徊莸厣蟪d率高達34.4%。二、“十二五”期間,西北牧區(qū)牛羊肉產(chǎn)量呈逐年上升態(tài)勢,年均增幅分別為4.0%和2.9%,奶類產(chǎn)量有所下降,年均降幅為1.2%。2015年西北牧區(qū)畜產(chǎn)品在滿足當?shù)刈陨硐M外還可滿足該區(qū)域外21795.9萬城鄉(xiāng)居民的需要。三、主成分分析結(jié)果顯示,內(nèi)蒙古和新疆草食畜牧業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎優(yōu)勢和發(fā)展水平較高。影響產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要因素為牛羊出欄率、牧草單產(chǎn)等。四、預測結(jié)果顯示,2020年該地區(qū)牛羊肉產(chǎn)量較2015年可分別增加5.28萬t和24.12萬t,發(fā)展?jié)摿^大,奶類產(chǎn)量仍有所下降。如果到2020年,當?shù)仫暡菘偖a(chǎn)量提高25%、牛羊出欄率提高15%時,西北牧區(qū)草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)就可以實現(xiàn)草畜全面平衡。五、根據(jù)預測結(jié)果以及優(yōu)化方案,對西北牧區(qū)發(fā)展草食畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)提出7點對策建議:(1)完善草原管理制度,依法落實各項管護措施;(2)改良天然草場,加強草原保護建設;(3)加強人工草地建設,推進牧草產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展;(4)轉(zhuǎn)變牛羊飼養(yǎng)模式,適當進行補飼;(5)成立專業(yè)合作社,加強信息平臺建設,推動畜產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易;(6)加大資金投入,積極落實各項補貼政策;(7)加大科技投入力度,加強科技創(chuàng)新和實用技術推廣,提高良種化程度和科技貢獻率。
[Abstract]:With its vast territory and abundant forage resources, Northwest China is an ideal place to develop animal husbandry. In the macro-background, such as accelerating the adjustment of the industrial structure, promoting the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, etc. The state has repeatedly emphasized the optimization of the structure and regional distribution of livestock species, encouraged the adjustment of structure and mode, and vigorously supported the development of herbivorous animal husbandry. Accordingly, the gradual transfer of the main livestock production areas of China to the northwest has become an inevitable trend. This paper studies the productivity level and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pastoral area in order to analyze how many animal products can be provided outside the area under the premise of ensuring the consumption demand of animal origin food in this area. Moreover, whether the northwest pastoral areas can seize the great historical opportunity for the country to implement the strategy of "moving from west to north", so that the herbivorous animal husbandry can be transformed and upgraded and developed by leaps and bounds, is worthy of in-depth analysis and study. The results can provide a scientific basis for the adjustment of national macro policy and the formulation of regional development strategies. According to the requirements of major strategic consulting projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the "Northwest region" includes Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and the western region of Inner Mongolia involve seven provinces and regions except for the east four alliances. This paper takes the pastoral areas of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as the research objects. By means of consulting literature and yearbook data, typical investigation, expert consultation and so on, the principal component analysis method and grey forecast method GM1 / 1) model were used. The study on productivity evaluation and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pasturing area was carried out. The results were as follows: 1. But the natural grassland overloading is serious, in 2015 the local natural grassland livestock overload rate is as high as 34.44.2.2.In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the beef and mutton production in the northwest pasturing area increased year by year, the average annual increase was 4.0% and 2.9 respectively, and the milk production decreased. The average annual decline is 1.20.The livestock products in northwest pastoral areas from 2015 to 2015 can meet the needs of two hundred and seventeen million nine hundred and fifty-nine thousand urban and rural residents outside the region in addition to their own consumption. Third, the principal component analysis results show that, The basic advantages and development level of herbivorous animal husbandry industry in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are relatively high. The main factors affecting the development of the industry are cattle and sheep herding rate, forage yield per unit yield, etc. The forecast results showed that the yield of beef and mutton in this area could increase 52,800 t and 241,200 t respectively compared with 2015 on 2020, and the development potential was great, and the milk yield was still decreasing. If the total yield of forage was increased by 25% by 2020, and the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t, the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t. The production of herbivorous animal husbandry in the pastoral area of Northwest China can achieve an overall balance. Fifthly, according to the forecast results and the optimization scheme, the paper puts forward seven countermeasures and suggestions for the development of herbivorous animal husbandry production in the pastoral area of northwest China) and consummates the grassland management system. Carrying out various management and conservation measures according to law: improving natural pasture, strengthening grassland protection and construction, strengthening artificial grassland construction, promoting the development of herbage industrialization, changing the raising mode of cattle and sheep, properly carrying out supplementary feeding, setting up specialized cooperatives, Strengthening the construction of information platform, promoting livestock product trade to increase the investment of funds, actively implementing various subsidy policies and increasing the intensity of scientific and technological investment, strengthening scientific and technological innovation and practical technology popularization, improving the degree of seed production and the rate of contribution of science and technology.
【學位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.3
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