本文關(guān)鍵詞： 突頰側(cè)琵甲 MaxEnt模型 草原蟲害預測 環(huán)境因子 潛在地理分布　出處：《植物保護學報》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：為有效預警和防控突頰側(cè)琵甲Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky發(fā)生,基于該物種分布數(shù)據(jù)、1950 2000年環(huán)境下生物氣候數(shù)據(jù)和典型受害區(qū)土壤因子數(shù)據(jù)、氣象數(shù)據(jù)等,采用MaxEnt模型對其在新疆的潛在地理分布及其主要影響因子進行預測和分析驗證。結(jié)果表明:受試者工作特征曲線下面積(area under the ROC curve,AUC)都大于0.990,預測結(jié)果可靠。突頰側(cè)琵甲的潛在分布區(qū)位于新疆天山一帶,高、中度適生區(qū)分布在伊犁河谷草原和昌吉州瑪納斯縣、呼圖壁縣草原及塔城地區(qū)沙灣縣等地;刀切法得出降水量是影響其潛在地理分布的主要因素,特別是5、6、11、12月降水量的影響最大。該蟲典型受害區(qū)的降水數(shù)據(jù)驗證了分布概率響應曲線的準確性;土壤濕度在15%~30%范圍時,30 cm處土壤濕度與蟲口密度呈極顯著弱正相關(guān)。表明降水作為影響草原土壤濕度、土壤含氧量的主要和直接因素,對不同生長期突頰側(cè)琵甲生存起到重要作用。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively warn and control the occurrence of Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky in the buccal side of the spoonbill. Based on the data of species distribution in 2000, bioclimatic data and soil factor data, meteorological data, etc. The potential geographical distribution in Xinjiang and its main influencing factors are predicted and analyzed by MaxEnt model. The results show that the area under the operating characteristic curve (. Area under the ROC curve. AUC) were all greater than 0.990, and the predicted results were reliable. The potential distribution area of the protruded buccal spoonbill was located in Tianshan area of Xinjiang, and the high and moderate suitable areas were located in the grassland of Yili River Valley and the Manas County of Changji. Hutubi prairie and Tacheng area Shawan County and other places; It is concluded that the precipitation is the main factor affecting the potential geographical distribution, especially in the case of 5Y6 / 11. The effect of precipitation on December was the biggest. The accuracy of the distribution probability response curve was verified by the precipitation data of typical affected areas of the insect. The correlation between soil moisture and insect density at 30 cm in the range of 15 ~ 30% of soil moisture was significantly and positively correlated, indicating that precipitation was the main and direct factor affecting soil moisture and soil oxygen content in steppe. It plays an important role in the survival of protuberant buccal spoonbill in different growth stages.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學資源與環(huán)境科學學院;新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮部辦公室;新疆昌吉州瑪納斯蝗蟲鼠害預測預報防治站;
【基金】：新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮部辦公室委托項目(211-62316) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)青年科技創(chuàng)新人才培養(yǎng)工程項目(2016)
【分類號】：S812.6
【正文快照】： 830001;3.新疆昌吉州瑪納斯蝗蟲鼠害預測預報防治站,瑪納斯832200)新疆是我國荒漠半荒漠地區(qū)擬步甲分布最豐富的地區(qū),占全國擬步甲總數(shù)的66.4%(任國棟等,1999)。黃人鑫等(2005)記錄新疆擬步甲有230種。突頰側(cè)琵甲Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky隸屬擬步甲科琵

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