本文選題：城市規(guī)模　切入點(diǎn)：聚集效應(yīng)　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來(lái),我國(guó)城市獲得了快速發(fā)展,城市體系不斷完善,城市布局日趨合理,城鎮(zhèn)人口進(jìn)一步聚集的趨勢(shì)明顯,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大。城市規(guī)模擴(kuò)大帶來(lái)的聚集經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)主要有兩個(gè),分別是地方化經(jīng)濟(jì)和城市化經(jīng)濟(jì)。地方化經(jīng)濟(jì)是產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì),其主要源于專(zhuān)業(yè)化分工帶來(lái)的生產(chǎn)效率的提高,勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)共享帶來(lái)的企業(yè)招聘成本和勞動(dòng)力搜尋成本的降低以及產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)的知識(shí)共享和溢出等。城市化經(jīng)濟(jì)是產(chǎn)業(yè)間的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì),主要表現(xiàn)為公共產(chǎn)品供給的經(jīng)濟(jì)性以及產(chǎn)業(yè)間的協(xié)同和知識(shí)溢出等。隨著城市規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,城市聚集經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)不斷顯現(xiàn),完善的市政設(shè)施、便捷的通訊手段、發(fā)達(dá)的交通工具和高智力的管理階層,使城市有著很高的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)效率,帶來(lái)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)快速地增長(zhǎng)。我國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程在取得長(zhǎng)足進(jìn)步的同時(shí)也暴露出一些突出問(wèn)題,例如城市化發(fā)展方式粗放、盲目發(fā)展、過(guò)度發(fā)展,導(dǎo)致耕地占用過(guò)多、水資源短缺、環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重,城市自然承載力下降明顯。與此同時(shí),城市人口規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大伴隨著住房緊張、交通擁堵、就業(yè)困難等社會(huì)問(wèn)題的產(chǎn)生,個(gè)別城市呈現(xiàn)出明顯的“擁擠跡象”。通勤成本增加、生產(chǎn)生活成本提高、生態(tài)環(huán)境問(wèn)題突出,這些均嚴(yán)重影響了城市效率,進(jìn)而阻礙了城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。城市規(guī)模、效率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)彼此依存、相互影響,既存在一定的矛盾性,又有內(nèi)在的一致性,它們之間的聯(lián)系正受到政府決策部門(mén)和國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的日益關(guān)注。本文以新經(jīng)濟(jì)地理學(xué)模型和思想為基礎(chǔ),選取我國(guó)地級(jí)及以上城市為樣本,在對(duì)城市規(guī)模特征進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,研究了城市規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)的影響因素,分析了城市規(guī)模與城市效率之間的關(guān)系,構(gòu)建計(jì)量模型討論了城市規(guī)模、效率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的視角估算了我國(guó)城市的最優(yōu)規(guī)模,最后,從城市規(guī)模形成、城市效率提升以及城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三個(gè)方面為我國(guó)城市化發(fā)展道路提出了一些對(duì)策建議。主要研究結(jié)論有以下四點(diǎn)：第一,兩個(gè)城市模型主要解釋了小城市向大城市的人口遷移現(xiàn)象,單中心城市模型主要解釋了二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)下農(nóng)村人口向城市遷移的現(xiàn)象。兩個(gè)模型均表明本地市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)和生活成本效應(yīng)是城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大的聚集力,擁擠效應(yīng)是城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大的分散力。第二,城市規(guī)模影響因素的分析結(jié)果表明,區(qū)位因素對(duì)于城市規(guī)模具有一定的影響,大規(guī)模城市相對(duì)于中小規(guī)模城市而言,其受區(qū)位因素的影響更為明顯,但這種影響正變得不太顯著；資源稟賦對(duì)中等城市規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)影響顯著,而對(duì)小城市和大城市影響不顯著；城市發(fā)展水平對(duì)于城市規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)影響顯著,其中,市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的影響隨著城市規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)逐漸下降,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于較小城市規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)作用明顯,而第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于大城市規(guī)模擴(kuò)張的作用明顯；公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是城市規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ),影響較為穩(wěn)定,在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平相對(duì)較高的東、中部地區(qū)作用更為顯著；城市規(guī)模越大,城市收入水平的影響越顯著,與東部地區(qū)城市相比,中、西部地區(qū)城市的高收入更能吸引勞動(dòng)力的遷移和定居；人力資本投資能有效推進(jìn)城市規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng),城市規(guī)模越大,人力資本投資的作用越明顯,初級(jí)人力資本和中級(jí)人力資本是知識(shí)得以溢出的基礎(chǔ)且流動(dòng)性不強(qiáng),對(duì)于城市發(fā)展一直起著較為穩(wěn)定的重要作用。第三,城市效率特征及其影響因素的分析結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)地級(jí)及以上城市的總體城市效率處于中等水平,大部分城市效率水平不高,距離理想狀態(tài)差距較大。城市效率不高的主要原因是城市技術(shù)效率的低下,而城市的規(guī)模效率比較理想,總體來(lái)說(shuō),城市效率還有較大的改善空間。我國(guó)城市之間存在較強(qiáng)的溢出效應(yīng)和空間依賴關(guān)系,城市效率有顯著的空間自相關(guān)性。城市規(guī)�；诰奂�(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)對(duì)于城市效率的提升有顯著的作用,此外,人力資本、市場(chǎng)自由度和經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度對(duì)于城市效率差異也有重要的影響�？臻g溢出效應(yīng)對(duì)于城市效率的影響有限。第四,城市規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的分析結(jié)果表明,城市規(guī)模對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有明顯的促進(jìn)作用,但他們之間并非簡(jiǎn)單的線性關(guān)系,兩者之間存在明顯的“倒U型”關(guān)系,即存在最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模,其聚集效應(yīng)帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量最大。城市規(guī)模對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響存在一定的門(mén)檻效應(yīng)。綜合城市規(guī)模對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的兩個(gè)門(mén)檻值以及最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模,我們可以把城市規(guī)模對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響分成四個(gè)階段。相比于已有文獻(xiàn),本文的創(chuàng)新主要體現(xiàn)在以下三個(gè)方面：第一,基于新經(jīng)濟(jì)地理學(xué)模型,考慮到我國(guó)典型的二元結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn),結(jié)合諸多學(xué)者的補(bǔ)充完善以及研究成果,建立了兩個(gè)城市模型和單中心城市模型,從理論上解釋了城市規(guī)模形成和發(fā)展的機(jī)制,并采用面板分位數(shù)回歸方法實(shí)證分析了城市規(guī)模的影響因素。第二,在對(duì)城市效率進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了城市效率的空間分布特征和時(shí)間演變特征,采用空間計(jì)量方法檢驗(yàn)了城市效率的空間溢出效應(yīng)并研究了城市效率的影響因素,利用0-B分解確定了城市效率各影響因素的重要程度,闡述了城市規(guī)模與城市效率之間的關(guān)系。第三,采用動(dòng)態(tài)GMM方法分析了城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響因素,在此基礎(chǔ)上確定了最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模,結(jié)合城市規(guī)模對(duì)于城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的門(mén)檻值,確定了城市聚集效應(yīng)發(fā)展的四個(gè)不同階段。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, our country city gained rapid development, and constantly improve the system of city, city layout is reasonable, the urban population further accumulation trend obviously, the enlargement of city scale. The expansion of the city there are two main effects of agglomeration economies, which are local economy and city economy. The local economy is the economy of scale in the industry, the main source for the specialization of production efficiency, reduce the labor market share from enterprise recruitment cost and labor cost of search and intra industry knowledge sharing and overflowing. City economy is the economic scale between the industry, mainly for the supply of public goods in the economy and inter industry collaboration and knowledge spillovers. With the expansion of city size, city agglomeration economy effect continue to appear, complete facilities, convenient communication means, developed The transportation and high intelligence management, the city has a very high efficiency, bring the rapid growth of city economy. Our city has made great progress in the process also exposed some problems, such as the city of the extensive mode of development, blind development, excessive development, the land occupied too much, the shortage of water resources, serious environmental pollution, city natural bearing capacity decreased. At the same time, the city population size continues to expand with the housing shortage, traffic congestion, employment difficulties and other social problems, individual city shows obvious "crowded signs". Increasing commuting costs, production costs increase, the problem of ecological environment. These are serious impact on the efficiency of city, which hindered the economic growth of the city. The city scale, the efficiency of economic growth and interdependence, mutual influence, there are some contradiction, Have internal consistency, the relationship between them is increasingly concerned government departments and scholars at home and abroad. Based on the model of new economic geography and ideology, select China's prefecture level city as the sample, based on the characteristics of city scale analysis, study the influence factors of city scale growth and analyzed the relationship between city scale and city construction efficiency, discussed the city scale measurement model, the relationship between efficiency and economic growth, from the view of economic growth to estimate the optimal scale, our country city finally, formed from the city scale, city and city to enhance the efficiency of economic growth in three aspects, puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the path of development of city of our country. The main conclusions are the following four points: first, second city model mainly explain the migration of small city to the city's population, single Center city model mainly explains the rural population economic structure of two yuan to the city migration phenomenon. Two models showed that the effect of the local market and the cost of living effect is the city continues to expand the scale of aggregation, the crowding effect is dispersion of the enlargement of city scale. In second, the city scale influence factor analysis results show that the location factors have certain impact on the city scale, city scale relative to the small city, the influence of location factors is more obvious, but this effect is less significant; effects of resource endowment on medium scale city growth significantly, but had no significant effects on the small and big city; city development level for city scale growth significantly, which affect the size of the market gradually decreased with the growth of the city scale, the second industry for smaller scale of city growth Obviously, while the third industry for the expansion of the scale of the big city obviously; the public infrastructure is the foundation of city scale growth, effect is relatively stable, relatively high level of economic development in the East, the central region is more significant; the larger size of the city, city income level is more significant, compared with the eastern part of the city. In high income, city of the western region to attract more labor migration and settlement; human capital investment can effectively promote the growth of city scale, city scale is larger, the effect of human capital investment is more obvious, the primary and secondary human capital is the foundation of knowledge spillover and liquidity is not strong, for city development always plays an important role in the stable. In third, the city's characteristics and factors affecting the efficiency of the analysis results show that the overall efficiency of China's city level and above the city In the middle level, most of the city efficiency level is not high, from the ideal state gap. The main reason for the city efficiency is not high city technical efficiency is low, and the city scale efficiency is relatively ideal, the overall efficiency of city there is a large room for improvement. There are spillover effects and strong spatial dependencies between our city there are significant spatial autocorrelation, city scale efficiency. Based on the city agglomeration effect has significant effect, for the city to promote the efficiency of human capital market, in addition, freedom and openness of the economy for the city efficiency differences also have important influence. The spillover effect of the city efficiency is limited. Fourth. The analysis results of relationship the scale and economic growth of the city shows that the city scale has obvious promoting effect on economic growth, but they are not simple linear relationship between the two. There was the "inverted U", that is the optimal city size, bring its aggregation effect of the largest economy. The city size threshold effect exists certain impact on economic growth. The city scale for the two economic growth threshold values and the optimal city size, we can put the influence on the city scale economic growth is divided into four stages. Compared to the existing literature, this innovation is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, the new economic geography model based on the consideration of two yuan structure characteristics of Chinese typical, with many scholars and complement the research results, set up two city model and single center city model that explains the mechanism of the formation and development of city scale in theory, and quantile regression method to analyze the influencing factors of city scale using the panel. Second, in the city Based on the analysis of the efficiency evaluation, the efficiency of city space distribution and time evolution characteristics, using spatial econometric methods to test the spatial spillover effect of city efficiency and study the factors influencing the efficiency of the city, using the 0-B decomposition to determine the efficiency of each city affected by the degree of importance of, this paper describes the relationship between city and city scale efficiency. Third, using the dynamic GMM method to analyze the influencing factors of city economic growth, on the basis of the optimal city size is determined, combined with the city scale for the city's economic growth threshold, determined the four different stages of development of city agglomeration effect.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.2;F124.1
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本文編號(hào)：1673759