本文選題：輿情傳遞 + 閾值效應(yīng)　； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展和進(jìn)步,極大的改變了人們的行為方式,尤其是在輿情的產(chǎn)生和傳播上,其影響更是顛覆性的。近幾年以來,由互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情引起的突發(fā)群體事件此起彼伏,并隨時有可能被激化,發(fā)展成為突發(fā)公共危機(jī)事件。由互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情引起的群體事件頻發(fā),已經(jīng)不是偶然現(xiàn)象,而是由個體利益訴求導(dǎo)致的必然現(xiàn)象�；ヂ�(lián)網(wǎng)信息高度的參與性、互動性、時效性以及病毒式傳播的特點,使輿情的社會效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)幾何的級數(shù)的放大,如果不對其進(jìn)行適當(dāng)干預(yù),會經(jīng)由互聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)生眾多不良后果。然而目前對于網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的監(jiān)控仍然停留在被動管理的狀態(tài),尚未形成一種主動的事前預(yù)警和管理模式,是否可以“領(lǐng)先一步,預(yù)測需求”是有效引導(dǎo)和利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的關(guān)鍵。本文在考慮互聯(lián)網(wǎng)背景的前提下,通過對網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳遞理論的分析,希望尋找一種可行的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情預(yù)測的方法,對網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的管理者提供一些有益參考建議。本文在梳理國內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn),概括網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳遞的基本原理和路徑,并對輿情控制方法和模式進(jìn)行了探討和研究,主要展開了以下6個方面的研究:⑴基于理論分析,對網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的研究方法進(jìn)行拓展,采用分層次分析的方式,將網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情整體層面、群體層面、個體層面三個層次分別進(jìn)行建模研究和分析,建立從宏觀到微觀的全方位分析模型。⑵基于個體遷移和信息轉(zhuǎn)換兩個環(huán)節(jié)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞過程進(jìn)行理論解析,建立基于閾值的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞模型,同時仿真互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳播過程。⑶基于模型選擇,通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞過程中子群模式的解析,運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的建模方法,來解釋互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情的傳遞過程,并發(fā)掘?qū)ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)輿情子群傳遞模式產(chǎn)生影響的各種因素。⑷基于理論分析,對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞的總體模式做進(jìn)一步的解析,從個體傳遞模式角度對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞過程來進(jìn)行二次論述。運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的分析范式,從個體間的互動視角對輿情個體遷移和信息轉(zhuǎn)換兩個環(huán)節(jié)進(jìn)行模型建立和仿真。⑸基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞模式分析,論述互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞的事前監(jiān)控問題。使用鏈路預(yù)測的分析方法,利用輿情傳遞網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù),以輿情個體間傳遞關(guān)系的“從眾效應(yīng)”和“閾值效應(yīng)”為起點,來預(yù)測輿情個體間可能產(chǎn)生的輿情傳遞連接。⑹基于微博數(shù)據(jù)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情現(xiàn)實測度,搜集經(jīng)由微博傳遞的輿情現(xiàn)實數(shù)據(jù),并對其進(jìn)行網(wǎng)絡(luò)整體測度、子群傳遞模式測度、個體傳遞模式測度,從而對本研究建立的輿情傳遞網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進(jìn)行驗證,從而證明其現(xiàn)實適用性。本文通過對網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的系統(tǒng)研究,形成了一些新的研究結(jié)論和研究觀點,主要的創(chuàng)新點集中在以下三個方面。⑴基于輿情傳遞理論分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)輿情傳遞過程的閾值效應(yīng),修正了傳統(tǒng)的“一味壓制”輿情控制觀點。通過理論分析及輿情傳遞模型的建立,將輿情傳遞過程分解為輿情個體遷移及輿情信息轉(zhuǎn)換兩個階段,并使用仿真數(shù)據(jù)對其進(jìn)行模擬。仿真結(jié)果顯示輿情傳遞過程即存在閾值空間,也存在閾值移動的小窗效應(yīng)。改變傳統(tǒng)的“一味壓制”,依據(jù)閾值及閾值小窗效應(yīng)來控制輿情傳遞更能實現(xiàn)輿情控制的目的,并且提高輿情個體的輿情觀點轉(zhuǎn)變概率是控制輿情傳播的有效途徑。從閾值角度提供了一個有效的輿情傳播控制方法,以期為輿情監(jiān)控提供相關(guān)的理論支持。⑵基于輿情傳遞過程分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)不同虛擬社區(qū)間及虛擬社區(qū)內(nèi)部的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞模式的特點。本研究從虛擬社區(qū)角度出發(fā),解析了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞的子群傳遞模式,著重研究互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情在不同的虛擬社區(qū)間以及虛擬社區(qū)內(nèi)部輿情傳遞的主要過程。⑶基于案例分析,對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞的“事前預(yù)測”做出嘗試。目前,已有研究對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情的監(jiān)控大多是事后角度的監(jiān)控,通常的做法是對所收集的輿情數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析或者傳播動力學(xué)分析,找出其中的規(guī)律,及其可控之處。本研究嘗試使用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論中的“鏈路預(yù)測”方法,對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)輿情傳遞過程進(jìn)行事前預(yù)測,根據(jù)輿情網(wǎng)絡(luò)的相關(guān)特征,選擇適當(dāng)?shù)逆溌奉A(yù)測指標(biāo),完成輿情傳遞過程的整體預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:The development and progress of Internet technology have greatly changed people's way of behavior, especially in the production and dissemination of public opinion, its influence is more subversive. In recent years, the sudden group events caused by Internet public opinion have come and fall, and are likely to be intensified at any time to become a public crisis. The frequent occurrence of group events is not an accidental phenomenon, but an inevitable phenomenon caused by the appeal of individual interests. The highly participatory, interactive, timeliness and viral transmission characteristics of the Internet information make the social effect of the public opinion magnify the geometric series of the public opinion. If it is not properly intervened, it will be generated via the Internet. There are many adverse consequences. However, the monitoring of network public opinion remains in the state of passive management, and it has not yet formed an active pre warning and management model. It is the key to effectively guide and utilize the network public opinion on the basis of the internet background. The analysis of the theory of public opinion transmission, hope to find a feasible method of network public opinion prediction, and provide some useful references for the managers of network public opinion. On the basis of combing the research literature at home and abroad, summarizing the related theories of network public opinion, this paper analyzes the basic principles and paths of network public opinion transmission and the control methods of public opinion. And the model has been discussed and studied, and the following 6 aspects are mainly carried out: (1) based on theoretical analysis, the research methods of network public opinion are expanded, and the method of hierarchical analysis is adopted to study and analyze the overall level of network public opinion, group level and individual level by three levels, and to establish from macro to microcosmic. Based on the two links of individual migration and information conversion, the process of Internet public opinion transmission is analyzed theoretically, the threshold based Internet public opinion transmission model is established, and the communication process of Internet public opinion is simulated. (3) based on the model selection, the analysis of the model of neutrons in the process of Internet public opinion transmission is made, and the application system is applied. The modeling method of unified dynamics is used to explain the transmission process of Internet public opinion, and to explore the various factors that affect the transmission mode of the Internet public opinion subgroups. (4) based on the theoretical analysis, the overall model of the Internet public opinion transmission is further analyzed, and two comments on the transmission process of Internet public opinion are carried out from the perspective of individual transmission mode. In this paper, the model of system dynamics is used to model and simulate the two links of individual migration and information conversion from the interactive perspective between individuals. The network topology data, starting from the "herd effect" and "threshold effect", is used to predict the possible public opinion transfer connection between individuals in public opinion. Based on the actual measurement of Internet public opinion based on micro-blog data, it collects the real data transmitted by micro-blog through the public opinion and carries out the network as a whole. Measurement, subgroup transmission pattern measure, individual transfer model measure, thus verifying the public opinion transmission network model established in this study, thus proving its practical applicability. This paper has formed some new research conclusions and research views through the systematic research on network public opinion, and the main innovation points are concentrated in the following three aspects. (1) Through theoretical analysis of public opinion transmission, the threshold effect of public opinion transmission process is found, the traditional "one flavor suppression" public opinion control viewpoint is amended. Through the theoretical analysis and the establishment of public opinion transfer model, the process of public opinion transfer is divided into two stages of public opinion individual migration and public opinion information conversion, and simulation data is used to simulate it. The result shows that there is a threshold space in the process of public opinion transmission, and there is a small window effect of threshold movement. It is an effective way to control public opinion control to change the traditional "one flavor suppression", control the public opinion control according to the threshold and threshold small window effect, and to improve the opinion point change probability of public opinion. An effective method of public opinion communication control is provided from the threshold point of view to provide relevant theoretical support for public opinion monitoring. (2) based on the analysis of public opinion transmission process, the characteristics of Internet public opinion transmission in different virtual communities and virtual communities are found. Delivery of subgroup transfer mode, focusing on the main process of Internet public opinion in different virtual communities and virtual community internal public opinion transmission. 3. Based on case analysis, the "pre prediction" of the Internet public opinion is tried. At present, the research on Internet public opinion is mostly monitored after the event. This study tries to use the "link prediction" method in the complex network theory to predict the transmission process of Internet public opinion, and to select appropriate links according to the characteristics of public opinion network. Prediction indicators to complete the overall forecast of public opinion transfer process.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：G206

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本文編號：1807168