本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于CVM的三江平原濕地生態(tài)資源非使用價值評價　出處：《東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：濕地是地球上功能獨特的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),它不僅具有觀光旅游價值、藝術(shù)觀賞價值、科學(xué)考察價值以及歷史文化價值,還能調(diào)節(jié)氣候、蓄養(yǎng)水源、降解污染、保護(hù)濕地生物多樣性以及為工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和人民生活提供基本保障,并為當(dāng)?shù)貏?chuàng)造巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會及生態(tài)效益。素有“北大荒”之稱的三江平原,除了是全國重要的產(chǎn)糧基地,還是全球極為少見的淡水沼澤濕地之一,在功能上,具有明顯的不可復(fù)制性和無可替代性。近年來,濕地生態(tài)資源的開發(fā)多以開展相關(guān)生態(tài)旅游活動的形式展開,但因處在發(fā)展初期,理論與實踐研究相脫離,致使?jié)竦厣鷳B(tài)資源的開發(fā)存在一定的盲目性和破壞性。如何尋求濕地生態(tài)資源開發(fā)和保護(hù)之間的平衡點,在宏觀政策上做出策略性部署,成為我們研究工作中要解決的首要問題。而解決問題的關(guān)鍵在于對濕地生態(tài)資源的非使用價值進(jìn)行全面、客觀的評價。為此,論文在廣泛調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,運用條件估值法(Contingent Valuation Method,CVM)對三江平原濕地生態(tài)資源的非使用價值進(jìn)行測算。論文首先介紹生態(tài)資源價值評價方面涉及的理論基礎(chǔ),并對CVM方法的原理、支付意愿引導(dǎo)技術(shù)、計算模型、方法自身和應(yīng)用過程中存在的偏差及方法效度、信度檢驗等方面內(nèi)容做出詳細(xì)闡述。為提高問卷結(jié)果的信度和效度,論文對調(diào)研過程中可能出現(xiàn)的偏差進(jìn)行處理,并結(jié)合預(yù)調(diào)查反映的實際情況,對問卷做出適當(dāng)修正。此次調(diào)研過程中采用雙邊界二分式問卷形式,在2013年6月至9月間進(jìn)行面訪式問卷調(diào)查,按分層抽樣原理,以各地區(qū)人口總數(shù)按比例確定問卷數(shù)量。此次問卷調(diào)查共發(fā)放問卷1260份,回收問卷1010份,問卷響應(yīng)率較高。隨后,建立“真實零響應(yīng)”和“抗議性零響應(yīng)”識別機(jī)制,運用抗議性支付率衡量問卷結(jié)果的有效性。論文分別運用隨機(jī)效用模型和Spike模型對問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計算,并將結(jié)果作對比分析。文中首先對各影響因素變量進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析,并用因子分析提取不易獲得的主因子變量,帶入Logit模型進(jìn)行回歸分析,降低問卷數(shù)據(jù)分析的難度。結(jié)果顯示,年齡、文化層次、個人年收入,濕地了解程度、環(huán)保的關(guān)心程度、濕地生態(tài)資源的開發(fā)對生活的影響、對旅游的熱愛程度和對三江平原濕地的偏愛程度等因素對資源非使用價值有顯著影響。最終,隨機(jī)效用模型求解得到三江平原濕地生態(tài)資源的非使用價值為58.34億元/年;Spike模型是在傳統(tǒng)隨機(jī)效用模型的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮零響應(yīng)問卷對受訪者支付意愿的影響,得到三江平原濕地生態(tài)資源的非使用價值為44.71億元/年。為檢驗CVM估計結(jié)果效度,論文選取內(nèi)容效度和理論效度兩種檢驗指標(biāo)對數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明條件估值法結(jié)果的效度較高。而估計結(jié)果的信度則采用時間檢驗法,在2014年7月下旬至8月初,運用相同問卷調(diào)查過程對同一受訪群體中的不同樣本進(jìn)行重復(fù)調(diào)查,結(jié)果具有較好的重現(xiàn)性。論文嘗試對三江平原濕地生態(tài)資源非使用價值進(jìn)行貨幣化評價的同時,將“零響應(yīng)”樣本納入分析評價模型,推進(jìn)Spike模型在CVM數(shù)據(jù)分析中的應(yīng)用進(jìn)程,這是對CVM方法數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析理論及過程的不斷拓展與完善。評估結(jié)果可作為三江平原濕地生態(tài)環(huán)境開發(fā)項目的開展和資源開發(fā)與保護(hù)的理論依據(jù),為政府制定相關(guān)政策提供理論技術(shù)支持,以確保濕地生態(tài)資源的長久、穩(wěn)定及可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Wetland is a unique ecological function of the earth system, it not only has tourism value, art value, scientific research value and historical and cultural value, also regulate the climate, raising water, degradation of pollution, protection of wetland biodiversity and provides the basic guarantee for industrial and agricultural production and people's life, and create huge economic and social benefits to the local. The social and ecological benefits. Known as the "the Great Northern Wilderness" of the Sanjiang plain, in addition is the national important production base, is the world's one of the extremely rare in the freshwater marsh wetland, has obvious function, can not be copied and irreplaceable. In recent years, the development of wetland ecological resources to carry out tourism activities the relevant ecological form, but in the early stages of development, the research of theory and practice from the blindness and destruction of certain development in wetland ecological resources. How to seek The balance between development and protection of wetland ecological resources, make strategic deployment in the macroeconomic policy, has become the primary problem to be solved in our research work. The key to solve the problem of wetland ecological resources in the non use value of a comprehensive, objective evaluation. This paper, on the basis of extensive research, the use of conditions the valuation method (Contingent Valuation Method, CVM) were measured on the Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value. This thesis first introduces the theoretical basis of evaluation of ecological resource value involved, and the principle of the CVM method, the willingness to pay to guide technology, calculation model, method and validity of deviation method and its application in the process of hand the reliability test content made in detail. In order to improve the reliability and validity of the questionnaire results, the deviation may appear in the course of the research process, and combined with the The actual situation of the pre survey report, make appropriate amendments to the questionnaire. The questionnaire of two fractional double boundary the research process, were interviewed by questionnaire survey in June 2013 to September, according to the principle of stratified sampling, determining the number of questionnaires in proportion to the total population of the area. This survey a total of 1260 questionnaires, recycling 1010 questionnaires, the questionnaire response rate was higher. Subsequently, the establishment of "true zero response" and "protest zero response" recognition mechanism, using effective protest payment rate to measure. The thesis used the questionnaire results of random utility model and Spike model to calculate the survey data, and the results were analyzed in this paper. First of all the variables influencing factors by correlation analysis and factor analysis to extract the main factor variables is not easy to obtain, into the Logit model regression analysis to reduce the difficulty of questionnaire data analysis . the results showed that the age, cultural level, personal income, wetland understanding degree, level of interest in environmental protection, affecting the development of wetland ecological resources for life, love and factors of tourism in Sanjiang plain wetland resources in the degree of preference for non use values have significant effects. Finally, to solve the random utility model Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value is 5 billion 834 million yuan / year; the Spike model is based on the traditional random utility model, considering the influence of zero response questionnaire for respondents' willingness to pay, get the Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value is 4 billion 471 million yuan / year. In order to test the results of CVM validity, this paper selects the content the validity and validity of theory two test index to analyze the data, results show that the higher the validity conditions of valuation method results. The reliability and the estimated results by test method, in 201 4 years from late July to early August, using the same questionnaire on the same respondents of different sample groups were repeated survey, the result has a good repeatability. This thesis attempts to Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources in the non use value of currency evaluation at the same time, the "zero response" into the sample analysis and evaluation model, promote the application process of Spike model in analysis of CVM data, which is based on the CVM statistical method to constantly expand and improve the theory and analysis process. The evaluation results can be used as the Sanjiang wetland ecological environment development project and resource exploitation and protection of the theoretical basis, provide theoretical and technical support for the government to formulate relevant policies to ensure the wetland ecological resources for a long time, stable and sustainable development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X826

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1431616