【摘要】：2016年秋后我國將推行玉米生產(chǎn)者補貼政策,以替代從2008年以來實行的"臨時收儲政策",此次改革旨在降低玉米庫存量、減少財政支出以及推動種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。在此背景下對中國玉米供需進行分析和預測,并評估此項改革的政策效果。結(jié)果表明,玉米生產(chǎn)者補貼對于維持農(nóng)民種植意愿具有較顯著的作用,價補分離的直接收入補貼會大幅減少玉米總供給。伴隨著未來玉米深加工和飼用需求繼續(xù)保持增長的趨勢,玉米支持政策改革將導致供需缺口迅速擴大。因此,建議政府選擇玉米生產(chǎn)者補貼政策,每年根據(jù)上一年的情況微調(diào)補貼額,既能確保一定數(shù)量的種植面積以及大幅減少財政支出,又可以在降低玉米庫存的前提下,有效防止供需缺口迅速擴大的危害。
[Abstract]:After autumn 2016, China will pursue a corn producer subsidy policy to replace the "temporary storage policy" since 2008. The reform aims to reduce corn stocks, reduce fiscal spending and promote the adjustment of planting structure. Under this background, the supply and demand of corn in China are analyzed and forecasted, and the policy effect of this reform is evaluated. The results showed that corn producer subsidy played a significant role in maintaining farmers' willingness to grow, and the direct income subsidy with the separation of price and supplement would greatly reduce the total supply of corn. With the increasing trend of deep processing and feed demand of corn in the future, the reform of corn support policy will lead to the rapid widening of the gap between supply and demand. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should choose the subsidy policy of corn producers and adjust the subsidy amount according to the situation of the previous year, which can not only ensure a certain amount of planting area and greatly reduce the fiscal expenditure, but also effectively prevent the harm of rapid widening of supply and demand gap under the premise of reducing corn inventory.
【作者單位】： 南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金青年科學基金(編號:71303115) 江蘇省高校優(yōu)勢學科建設(shè)工程資助項目(PAPD) 南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學中央高校科研業(yè)務費人文社科基金(編號:SKCX2015004、Y0201400069、A0201300498、Y0201400037) 教育部第48批留學回國人員科研啟動基金 江蘇省南京市留學人員科研擇優(yōu)資助基金 江蘇農(nóng)村發(fā)展與土地政策研究基地 江蘇省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化決策咨詢基地項目
【分類號】：F323.7
，

本文編號：2528224