發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-10 18:56

【摘要】：借助多元統(tǒng)計(jì)方法識(shí)別2000年1月~2016年12月江西省生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)的成因,選擇生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)率作為警情指標(biāo),借助時(shí)差相關(guān)法,確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo),建立BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,預(yù)警生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。結(jié)果表明,玉米價(jià)格、仔豬價(jià)格、豬肉價(jià)格、活雞價(jià)格、豆粕價(jià)格、生產(chǎn)者預(yù)期和疫情為主要警情指標(biāo),其中先行性指標(biāo)是仔豬價(jià)格和生產(chǎn)者預(yù)期,同步指標(biāo)是玉米價(jià)格、豬肉價(jià)格和活雞價(jià)格,豆粕價(jià)格和疫情是滯后指標(biāo);除個(gè)別樣本點(diǎn)外,BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型輸出的生豬價(jià)格預(yù)警值和實(shí)際價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)比較接近,生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型具有良好的預(yù)警效果。根據(jù)不同級(jí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度提出相應(yīng)對(duì)策建議,以便政府能夠根據(jù)不同警情采取具有針對(duì)性的措施,使生豬生產(chǎn)、市場(chǎng)平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The causes of pig price fluctuation in Jiangxi Province from January 2000 to December 2016 were identified by means of multivariate statistical method. The hog price fluctuation rate was selected as the warning index and the risk early warning index was determined by means of time difference correlation method. The BP artificial neural network model was established. Risk of hog price fluctuations. The results showed that corn price, piglet price, pork price, live chicken price, soybean meal price, producer expectation and epidemic situation were the main warning indicators. Pork price and live chicken price, soybean meal price and epidemic situation are lagging indicators, except for a few sample points, the warning value of live pig price output by BP neural network model is close to the actual price data. The risk early warning model of hog price fluctuation has good early warning effect. According to different levels of risk, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, so that the government can take targeted measures according to different police situation, so as to make pig production and market develop smoothly and healthily.
【作者單位】： 江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)江西現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金“生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)的形成機(jī)理及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警仿真”(編號(hào):71561014) 江西省社會(huì)科學(xué)項(xiàng)目“結(jié)構(gòu)突變視角下江西農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格市場(chǎng)形成機(jī)制研究”(編號(hào):16YJ34) 江西高校人文社會(huì)科學(xué)基金“新常態(tài)下生豬價(jià)格的時(shí)空特征及波動(dòng)機(jī)理研究”(編號(hào):GL162014) 江西省教育廳項(xiàng)目“基于支持向量機(jī)和馬爾科夫模型的江西省生豬價(jià)格預(yù)警研究”(編號(hào):GJJ160410)的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;TP183

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