類Hype Cycle技術(shù)成熟度評估方法研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-17 04:08
【摘要】：傳統(tǒng)的技術(shù)成熟度評估方法可分為三類,技術(shù)就緒水平(TRL)方法、文獻(xiàn)計(jì)量學(xué)方法和專利分析方法。美國高德納(Gartner)咨詢公司創(chuàng)建的Hype Cycle(技術(shù)成熟度曲線)是定性與定量相結(jié)合實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)成熟度評估的新方法。Hype Cycle能夠揭示技術(shù)創(chuàng)新演化的基本規(guī)律,是整體把握技術(shù)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展態(tài)勢、客觀評估技術(shù)創(chuàng)新成熟程度、合理選擇技術(shù)創(chuàng)新介入時(shí)機(jī)、謀求技術(shù)創(chuàng)新后發(fā)優(yōu)勢的有力工具。1995年以來,高德納基于Hype Cycle發(fā)布的新興技術(shù)成熟度報(bào)告受到業(yè)界廣泛認(rèn)可和高度關(guān)注。高德納生成Hype Cycle報(bào)告需依靠大量的專家,具體的方法流程和過程尚未公開。因而,非高德納研究人員或機(jī)構(gòu)難以個(gè)性化、定量化地繪制Hype Cycle曲線。針對這些問題,本研究結(jié)合單項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度的評估,運(yùn)用非線性回歸法解析了合成Hype Cycle曲線的原理,形成了類似Hype Cycle的成熟度評估曲線;運(yùn)用共現(xiàn)分析法和K最近鄰分類法等方法,實(shí)現(xiàn)了技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度的評估,標(biāo)定了各項(xiàng)技術(shù)在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Hype Cycle曲線上所處的相應(yīng)區(qū)間。研究分為兩部分:(1)單項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度評估方法研究;(2)技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度評估方法研究。單項(xiàng)技術(shù)除單一子技術(shù)外,還可以指某一技術(shù)領(lǐng)域或技術(shù)主題。技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)由顆粒度相同、主題相關(guān)的多項(xiàng)技術(shù)組成。單項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度的評估偏重技術(shù)在縱向時(shí)間序列的成熟度變化歷程,技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度的評估側(cè)重各項(xiàng)技術(shù)間成熟度的比較和排序。Hype Cycle由鐘形曲線和S形曲線疊加形成。本研究基于SCI論文和專利數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用非線性回歸法得到鐘形曲線和S形曲線,根據(jù)曲線的數(shù)學(xué)特征將單項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度劃分為萌芽期、膨脹期、成長期和穩(wěn)定期。以此為基礎(chǔ),本研究運(yùn)用多項(xiàng)式擬合法,將鐘形曲線和S形曲線繪制成一條類似Hype Cycle曲線,描繪單項(xiàng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展趨勢。技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度評估方法有四個(gè)環(huán)節(jié):劃定范圍、追蹤情報(bào)、排序成熟度、評估可行性。首先,根據(jù)組織目標(biāo)劃定評估對象的范圍,確定技術(shù)主題;其次,深入挖掘技術(shù)主題的內(nèi)容,包括基于德溫特分類代碼共現(xiàn)的技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)分析和基于德溫特手工代碼、科技論文關(guān)鍵詞共現(xiàn)的技術(shù)熱點(diǎn)分析,輔以科技論文的內(nèi)容分析,確定被評技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù);第三,運(yùn)用K最近鄰分類法進(jìn)行技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)的成熟度分類;最后,根據(jù)組織類型,選擇最恰當(dāng)?shù)募夹g(shù)。本研究選擇傳統(tǒng)X線攝影和光聲層析成像技術(shù)進(jìn)行方法測試,測試單項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度評估方法的可行性和有效性。技術(shù)集群內(nèi)多項(xiàng)技術(shù)成熟度評估方法的測試是以創(chuàng)新者類型的組織為例,分析其采用四類血紅蛋白氧載體技術(shù)的策略。四類技術(shù)分別是:(1)聚乙二醇(PEG)修飾血紅蛋白技術(shù);(2)類紅細(xì)胞血紅蛋白技術(shù);(3)戊二醛聚合血紅蛋白技術(shù);(4)分子內(nèi)交聯(lián)血紅蛋白技術(shù)。測試結(jié)果表明,技術(shù)成熟度評估結(jié)果與專家定性的評述比較一致,初步表明了類Hype Cycle技術(shù)成熟度評估方法的可行性和有效性。本研究的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要有兩點(diǎn)。一是基于定量數(shù)據(jù)生成了類似Hype Cycle的技術(shù)成熟度曲線,解析了合成Hype Cycle曲線的原理。二是嘗試運(yùn)用類Hype Cycle技術(shù)成熟度評估方法評估生物醫(yī)藥的技術(shù),通過傳統(tǒng)X線攝影技術(shù)和光聲層析成像技術(shù)、血紅蛋白氧載體的四類技術(shù)進(jìn)行方法測試,發(fā)現(xiàn)本研究方法的效果較好,表明所建立的方法可用于生物醫(yī)藥技術(shù)評估。本研究對Hype Cycle曲線原理的解析,以及初步建立的類Hype Cycle技術(shù)成熟度評估方法,可以降低技術(shù)成熟度評估的時(shí)間和經(jīng)濟(jì)成本。在此基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业亩ㄐ匝信?將能形成更加全面、客觀、準(zhǔn)確的技術(shù)成熟度評估結(jié)果,以進(jìn)一步指導(dǎo)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新策略的制定。
[Abstract]:The traditional evaluation methods of technical maturity can be divided into three categories: TRL, bibliometrics and patent analysis. The Hype Cycle (technical maturity curve) created by Gartner consulting company of the United States is a new method of combining qualitative and quantitative technology to realize technical maturity evaluation,.Hype Cycle can reveal Technology The basic law of innovation and evolution is a powerful tool for grasping the development trend of technological innovation as a whole, evaluating the maturity of technological innovation objectively, selecting the opportunity to intervene the technology innovation properly and seeking the advantage of technological innovation after.1995 years. Gao Dena's emerging technology maturity report based on Hype Cycle has been widely recognized and highly closed by the industry. Note. The generation of Hype Cycle report by Gartner relies on a large number of experts, and the specific process and process are not open. Therefore, the non Gao de Na researchers or institutions are difficult to personalize and quantify the Hype Cycle curve. In view of these problems, this study combines the evaluation of the maturity of single technology and the application of nonlinear regression to the analytical synthesis of H The principle of ype Cycle curve has formed a maturity evaluation curve similar to Hype Cycle. By means of co occurrence analysis and K nearest neighbor classification, the evaluation of multiple technical maturity within the technology cluster is realized and the corresponding interval of each technology in the standard Hype Cycle curve is demarcated. The study is divided into two parts: (1) single technology maturity Research on degree evaluation methods; (2) research on multiple technology maturity assessment methods in technical clusters. Single technology, in addition to single sub technology, can also refer to a technical field or technical theme. Many technologies in a technical cluster consist of the same particle size and a number of techniques related to the subject. The maturity change process of the sequence, the evaluation of multi technology maturity within the technology cluster focuses on the comparison and sorting of the maturity of each technology..Hype Cycle is formed by the superposition of the bell curve and the S shape curve. Based on the SCI paper and the patent data, the bell curve and the S shape curve are obtained by the nonlinear regression method, and the mathematical characteristics of the curve are based on the curve. The maturity of the single technology is divided into the germination period, the expansion period, the growth period and the stable period. By using the polynomial fitting method, this study draws the bell shape curve and the S shape curve into a similar Hype Cycle curve, depicts the development trend of the single technology. There are four links in the evaluation method of multiple technical maturity within the technical cluster. First, define the scope of the evaluation objects according to the organizational goals, determine the technical topics, and then dig into the content of the technical topics, including the technical structure analysis based on the co-occurrence of Derent classification code and the handmade code based on dwen, and the key points of the technical thesis. Analysis, supplemented by the content analysis of scientific papers, determine a number of techniques in the technical cluster evaluated; third, use K nearest neighbor classification to classify the maturity of a number of techniques in the technology cluster; finally, choose the most appropriate technology according to the type of organization. The feasibility and effectiveness of the technology maturity evaluation method. The test of multiple technology maturity assessment methods in the technology cluster is based on the organization of the innovators, and analyzes the strategies for the use of four kinds of hemoglobin oxygen carrier technology. The four kinds of techniques are: (1) polyethylene glycol (PEG) modified hemoglobin technology; (2) red blood cells red blood cells. White technology; (3) glutaraldehyde polymerized hemoglobin technology; (4) intramolecular crosslinked hemoglobin technology. Test results show that the evaluation results of technical maturity are in agreement with the experts' qualitative comments, which preliminarily indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method. The volume data generated the technology maturity curve similar to Hype Cycle, and analyzed the principle of synthesizing Hype Cycle curve. Two it was to try to evaluate the technology of biological medicine by using the class Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method, and test the method by traditional X-ray photography and photoacoustic tomography, and the method of blood erythrocyte oxygen carrier. The results of this study show that the method can be used in the evaluation of biological medicine technology. The analysis of the principle of Hype Cycle curve and the preliminary evaluation method of Hype Cycle technology maturity can reduce the time and the cost of the technical maturity evaluation. Sexual judgment will lead to a more comprehensive, objective and accurate assessment of technology maturity, so as to further guide the formulation of technological innovation strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國人民解放軍軍事醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：G353.1
[Abstract]:The traditional evaluation methods of technical maturity can be divided into three categories: TRL, bibliometrics and patent analysis. The Hype Cycle (technical maturity curve) created by Gartner consulting company of the United States is a new method of combining qualitative and quantitative technology to realize technical maturity evaluation,.Hype Cycle can reveal Technology The basic law of innovation and evolution is a powerful tool for grasping the development trend of technological innovation as a whole, evaluating the maturity of technological innovation objectively, selecting the opportunity to intervene the technology innovation properly and seeking the advantage of technological innovation after.1995 years. Gao Dena's emerging technology maturity report based on Hype Cycle has been widely recognized and highly closed by the industry. Note. The generation of Hype Cycle report by Gartner relies on a large number of experts, and the specific process and process are not open. Therefore, the non Gao de Na researchers or institutions are difficult to personalize and quantify the Hype Cycle curve. In view of these problems, this study combines the evaluation of the maturity of single technology and the application of nonlinear regression to the analytical synthesis of H The principle of ype Cycle curve has formed a maturity evaluation curve similar to Hype Cycle. By means of co occurrence analysis and K nearest neighbor classification, the evaluation of multiple technical maturity within the technology cluster is realized and the corresponding interval of each technology in the standard Hype Cycle curve is demarcated. The study is divided into two parts: (1) single technology maturity Research on degree evaluation methods; (2) research on multiple technology maturity assessment methods in technical clusters. Single technology, in addition to single sub technology, can also refer to a technical field or technical theme. Many technologies in a technical cluster consist of the same particle size and a number of techniques related to the subject. The maturity change process of the sequence, the evaluation of multi technology maturity within the technology cluster focuses on the comparison and sorting of the maturity of each technology..Hype Cycle is formed by the superposition of the bell curve and the S shape curve. Based on the SCI paper and the patent data, the bell curve and the S shape curve are obtained by the nonlinear regression method, and the mathematical characteristics of the curve are based on the curve. The maturity of the single technology is divided into the germination period, the expansion period, the growth period and the stable period. By using the polynomial fitting method, this study draws the bell shape curve and the S shape curve into a similar Hype Cycle curve, depicts the development trend of the single technology. There are four links in the evaluation method of multiple technical maturity within the technical cluster. First, define the scope of the evaluation objects according to the organizational goals, determine the technical topics, and then dig into the content of the technical topics, including the technical structure analysis based on the co-occurrence of Derent classification code and the handmade code based on dwen, and the key points of the technical thesis. Analysis, supplemented by the content analysis of scientific papers, determine a number of techniques in the technical cluster evaluated; third, use K nearest neighbor classification to classify the maturity of a number of techniques in the technology cluster; finally, choose the most appropriate technology according to the type of organization. The feasibility and effectiveness of the technology maturity evaluation method. The test of multiple technology maturity assessment methods in the technology cluster is based on the organization of the innovators, and analyzes the strategies for the use of four kinds of hemoglobin oxygen carrier technology. The four kinds of techniques are: (1) polyethylene glycol (PEG) modified hemoglobin technology; (2) red blood cells red blood cells. White technology; (3) glutaraldehyde polymerized hemoglobin technology; (4) intramolecular crosslinked hemoglobin technology. Test results show that the evaluation results of technical maturity are in agreement with the experts' qualitative comments, which preliminarily indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method. The volume data generated the technology maturity curve similar to Hype Cycle, and analyzed the principle of synthesizing Hype Cycle curve. Two it was to try to evaluate the technology of biological medicine by using the class Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method, and test the method by traditional X-ray photography and photoacoustic tomography, and the method of blood erythrocyte oxygen carrier. The results of this study show that the method can be used in the evaluation of biological medicine technology. The analysis of the principle of Hype Cycle curve and the preliminary evaluation method of Hype Cycle technology maturity can reduce the time and the cost of the technical maturity evaluation. Sexual judgment will lead to a more comprehensive, objective and accurate assessment of technology maturity, so as to further guide the formulation of technological innovation strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國人民解放軍軍事醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：G353.1
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