本文選題：生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)　切入點(diǎn)：氣候變化　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：氣候變化已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前無可爭(zhēng)議的全球性環(huán)境問題,是目前全球面臨的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)之一。事實(shí)上,在當(dāng)前背景下,氣候變化在短期內(nèi)已經(jīng)是不可逆問題。氣候變化及其挾裹而來的各種氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn),更是導(dǎo)致貧困地區(qū)人類生計(jì)困難和貧困的主要致因。在我國(guó),貧困地區(qū)與生態(tài)與環(huán)境脆弱地帶具有高度的相關(guān)性,兩者在地理空間分布上具有較高的一致性,生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的農(nóng)戶也是氣候變化直接的受害者。氣候變化使農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)條件及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生重大變化,這不僅威脅到中國(guó)甚至世界的糧食安全,而且增大了農(nóng)民收入波動(dòng)的幅度。因此,在全球致力于減緩氣候變化的同時(shí),農(nóng)民和農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化不僅是國(guó)際社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),也成為中國(guó)政府落實(shí)可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重點(diǎn)。從宏觀層面講,適應(yīng)是保障糧食安全的重要舉措;從微觀層面講,適應(yīng)是落實(shí)宏觀政策、實(shí)現(xiàn)宏觀目標(biāo)的具體體現(xiàn)。準(zhǔn)確了解農(nóng)民對(duì)于氣候變化的感知、他們所采取的適應(yīng)性行為及行為的決定機(jī)制,對(duì)于政府制定旨在提升農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化能力的政策,是非常重要的。本文通過資料收集、問卷調(diào)查及模型構(gòu)建等方法,分析了農(nóng)戶對(duì)氣候變化的感知與適應(yīng)。首先收集了萬州區(qū)、云陽(yáng)縣、黔江區(qū)和酉陽(yáng)縣等4個(gè)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的氣象資料,實(shí)地調(diào)查該區(qū)縣12個(gè)村落、360個(gè)農(nóng)戶的基本情況和對(duì)氣候的感知情況,通過生計(jì)分析、參與式農(nóng)村評(píng)估等方法,分析了氣候變化對(duì)農(nóng)戶生計(jì)的影響。然后,依據(jù)問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果,構(gòu)建了Heckman Probit選擇模型和MNL模型,分析了影響農(nóng)戶感知與適應(yīng)氣候變化的因素,探究了農(nóng)戶應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化能力的限制因素。最后依據(jù)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的實(shí)際情況,提出了具有針對(duì)性的適應(yīng)行為并分析了其帶來的社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)效益,以期幫助農(nóng)戶更好的應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化,脫貧增收。研究得到的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)酉陽(yáng)縣等生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)氣候發(fā)生一定變化,氣象災(zāi)害頻發(fā)。氣候的變化對(duì)農(nóng)戶的自然資本、人力資本、金融資本、社會(huì)資本、物質(zhì)資本等生計(jì)資本產(chǎn)生了不同程度的影響,主要表現(xiàn)為影響了水資源、土壤、貧困發(fā)生率、勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和質(zhì)量、農(nóng)民收入等,造成了農(nóng)民生活上的困難。(2)農(nóng)戶性別、年齡、家庭務(wù)農(nóng)人數(shù)、耕地面積和氣候因素對(duì)農(nóng)戶感知與適應(yīng)氣候變化產(chǎn)生了極顯著的影響;文化程度、年均收入、氣象信息的獲取則產(chǎn)生了顯著的影響。農(nóng)戶文化程度低、家庭收入少、水資源缺乏、氣象信息不能及時(shí)獲取等是限制農(nóng)戶應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的重要因素。(3)農(nóng)戶應(yīng)不斷提高自身的應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的能力,培養(yǎng)學(xué)習(xí)意識(shí),學(xué)習(xí)先進(jìn)技術(shù),吸收創(chuàng)新理念;政府相關(guān)部門也應(yīng)幫助農(nóng)戶實(shí)施適應(yīng)性行為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化,如:集雨保水抗旱、調(diào)整作物種植結(jié)構(gòu)、災(zāi)害預(yù)防、土地整改、生態(tài)工程建設(shè)等。(4)云陽(yáng)縣、酉陽(yáng)縣等4個(gè)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)縣在政府的大力支持下均開展了應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)性行為,達(dá)到了集經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、生態(tài)“三位一體”的效益,如黔江區(qū)黃柏中藥材基地的建立、萬州區(qū)山坪塘的整治、酉陽(yáng)縣鄉(xiāng)村道路的修建等。最后建議在探討如何更好的應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化這一熱點(diǎn)問題時(shí),應(yīng)設(shè)身處地為農(nóng)戶著想,對(duì)于應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化工作的政策設(shè)計(jì)和推進(jìn)中要真正覆蓋到生態(tài)脆弱區(qū),覆蓋到農(nóng)村,尤其是貧困農(nóng)村中的弱勢(shì)小農(nóng)的利益。同時(shí)在研究適應(yīng)性行為時(shí),要具有針對(duì)性,清楚了解不同生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)、不同貧困村落的農(nóng)戶真正的所需所求。
[Abstract]:Climate change has become a global environmental problem that current undisputed, is one of the most serious challenges currently facing the world. In fact, in the current context, climate change is irreversible. All kinds of problems in the short term climate change and climate risk wrapped up and is led to poor areas of human livelihood and poverty is mainly caused by the difficulties because in our country, the poor areas and ecological and environmental fragile areas are highly related, both have high consistency in spatial distribution, ecological fragile area farmers and climate change direct victims of climate change. The conditions of agricultural production and industrial structure change, this is not only a threat to China even the world's food security, but also increases the farmers' income volatility. Therefore, in the global effort to mitigate climate change and adapt to climate change, farmers and agriculture Not only is the focus of the international community, has become the focus of Chinese government to implement the strategy of sustainable development. From the macro perspective, adaptation is an important measure to ensure food security; from the micro level, is to adapt to the implementation of macroeconomic policies, the specific embodiment of the realization of the goal of macro. To accurately understand the farmers' perception on climate change, the decision mechanism of adaptive behavior and they have taken, for the government to enhance agricultural capacity to adapt to climate change policy is very important. In this paper, through data collection, questionnaire survey and model construction method, analyzes the farmers' perception of climate change and adaptation. First collected in Wanzhou District, Yunyang County, Qianjiang District Meteorological Data Youyang county and 4 ecological fragile area, field survey of 12 villages in the county, the basic situation of 360 farmers and the climate perception, through livelihood analysis, participation The assessment methods, analysis of the impact of climate change on the livelihood of farmers. Then, based on the survey results, to construct the Heckman Probit model and MNL model, analyzes the influence of perception and adaptation to climate change factors, explore the limiting factors of farmers to cope with climate change capacity. Finally, based on the actual situation of ecological fragile areas the proposed adaptive behavior and analyzes the social, economic and ecological benefits, in order to cope with climate change, the better to help farmers out of poverty income. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Youyang County Ecological Fragile Areas of climate change and meteorological disasters. Natural capital. Climate change on human capital, financial capital, social capital, the influence of material capital and other livelihood capital and mainly affect water resources, soil, poverty The incidence rate, the quantity and quality of labor force, the income of peasants, farmers caused difficulties in life. (2) farmers' gender, age, number of farming families, cultivated area and climatic factors on Farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change has significant effect; cultural degree, average annual income, access to meteorological information is generated a significant impact. Farmers' low educational level, family income is little, lack of water resources, can not be timely access to meteorological information are important factors limiting farmers to cope with climate change. (3) farmers should constantly improve their own climate change ability, cultivate learning consciousness, learning advanced technology, innovative ideas to absorb the relevant government; departments should also help farmers to implement adaptive behavior in response to climate change, such as rain water and drought, adjustment of crop planting structure, disaster prevention, land reform, ecological construction and so on. (4) Yunyang County, Youyang county 4 Adaptive behavior in ecological fragile district were carried out in response to climate change in the strong support of the government, to set the economic, social and ecological benefits of "three-in-one", such as the traditional base of Qianjiang District in Wanzhou District, phellodendron, mountain Pingtang remediation, Youyang County Rural Road Construction and so on. Finally, the suggestions in this a hot issue in the discussion of how to better cope with climate change, should look for the farmers' sake, and promote the policy design for responding to climate change in the real coverage to ecologically fragile areas, coverage to rural areas, especially in poor rural areas in vulnerable farmers interests. At the same time in the study of adaptive behavior, to targeted. A clear understanding of the different ecological fragile areas, different poverty village farmers really needed to ask.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：S162;F323.6

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