本文關(guān)鍵詞： 森林火災(zāi) 時空分布 火險區(qū)劃　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文基于漳州市2000年至2010年火點數(shù)據(jù),氣候數(shù)據(jù),植被數(shù)據(jù)、地形數(shù)據(jù),以及人口和社會經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),利用二項邏輯斯蒂回歸模型、SPSS19.0和ArcGIS10.2,對漳州市森林火災(zāi)時空分布格局進行了研究,最終形成了漳州市火險區(qū)劃圖。本論文主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)根據(jù)對漳州市1991年至2013年森林火災(zāi)的時間變化規(guī)律進行分析,漳州市森林火災(zāi)年際發(fā)生次數(shù)、受害森林面積和林火損失的年際變化波動比較大,但是總的趨勢是在逐年減少。秋、冬兩季應(yīng)是漳州市森林防火的重點時期,這與漳州市實際情況吻合。(2)根據(jù)對漳州市1991年至2013年森林火災(zāi)的空間變化規(guī)律進行分析,結(jié)果表明,1991年至2013年期間,漳州市森林火災(zāi)的發(fā)生次數(shù)主要集中于南靖縣、平和縣、華安縣三個地區(qū)。三地林火發(fā)生次數(shù)共459次占全市林火發(fā)生次數(shù)的58%,受害森林面積占漳州市總受害森林面積的73.8%。(3)根據(jù)對漳州市1991年至2013年火險季節(jié)進行分析,1991年至于2004年森林火險季節(jié)長度雖有波動但總體趨于平穩(wěn),2005年至2013年,森林火險季節(jié)長度有逐年縮短的趨勢。(4)研究表明,高程(m),坡度,距離鐵路的距離(km),距離公路的距離(km),基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,日最高地表氣溫(℃),日最低地表氣溫(℃),日降水量(mm),日照時數(shù)(hour),日最高氣溫(℃),日最小相對濕度(%)和GDP共12個因子對漳州市森林火災(zāi)的發(fā)生具有顯著影響。模型的預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確率達到74%。(5)漳州市中高火險地區(qū)面積較大且分布較廣,對于該地區(qū)的森林防火工作應(yīng)給予高度重視。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the fire point data, climate data, vegetation data, topographic data, population and socio-economic data of Zhangzhou City from 2000 to 2010. The spatial and temporal distribution patterns of forest fires in Zhangzhou City were studied by using SPSS 19.0 and ArcGIS10.2, two logistic regression models. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the temporal variation of forest fires in Zhangzhou from 1991 to 2013, the annual occurrence times of forest fires in Zhangzhou are analyzed. The interannual variation of damaged forest area and forest fire loss fluctuates greatly, but the general trend is decreasing year by year. Autumn and winter should be the key periods of forest fire prevention in Zhangzhou. This coincides with the actual situation in Zhangzhou City. (2) based on the analysis of the spatial variation of forest fires in Zhangzhou City from 1991 to 2013, the results show that the frequency of forest fires in Zhangzhou City between 1991 and 1991 is mainly concentrated in Nanjing County and Pingghe County. The number of forest fires in three areas of Hua'an County is 459 times, accounting for 58 times of the total number of forest fires occurring in the city, and the affected forest area accounts for 73.8% of the total affected forest area in Zhangzhou City.) according to the analysis of the fire danger season from 1991 to 2013 in Zhangzhou City, 1991. As for the length of the forest fire insurance season in 2004, although it fluctuated, it generally tended to be stable. From 2005 to 2013, The seasonal length of forest fire danger has a trend of shortening year by year. 4) the study shows that the elevation, slope, distance from railway, distance from highway, infrastructure, The maximum daily surface temperature (鈩，

本文編號：1503246