本文關(guān)鍵詞：大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策模型研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目 大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境 決策機(jī)制 概率區(qū)間數(shù) 隨機(jī)占優(yōu)度

【摘要】：政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目是指為了實(shí)現(xiàn)政府職能,滿足社會(huì)公眾訴求,貫徹落實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,利用國(guó)家財(cái)政預(yù)算內(nèi)、外資金,或以財(cái)政性資金作為還款來(lái)源的借貸性資金建設(shè)的項(xiàng)目。大量上馬的政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目對(duì)于改善居民生活環(huán)境,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展,保證經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)等方面意義重大,但是同時(shí)也引起了社會(huì)各界對(duì)于政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策科學(xué)性的高度關(guān)注和潛在擔(dān)憂。大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的飛速發(fā)展為我們解決傳統(tǒng)問(wèn)題提供了新的思路,越來(lái)越多的學(xué)者看好大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)在政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用潛力。然而,由于政府決策者對(duì)于大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)還比較陌生,無(wú)法運(yùn)用大數(shù)據(jù)的思維思考決策問(wèn)題,構(gòu)建大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下全新的決策邏輯框架,提出研發(fā)訴求;而熟悉大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的研發(fā)人員又不了解現(xiàn)實(shí)的決策環(huán)境和決策人的訴求,無(wú)法提供對(duì)應(yīng)的需求響應(yīng)方案。在大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)人員和政府決策者間存在一條無(wú)法逾越的知識(shí)鴻溝,制約著大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)在政府投資決策領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的應(yīng)用。為了填補(bǔ)這條橫在政府決策者與大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)人員間的知識(shí)鴻溝,本文首先對(duì)當(dāng)前的大數(shù)據(jù)采集、儲(chǔ)存、處理、決策支持技術(shù)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的梳理,厘清了大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的技術(shù)邊界。隨后在可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)范圍內(nèi),深入分析了大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的決策情境,并進(jìn)一步提出了全新的大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下的政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策機(jī)制。最后提出了在全新的決策環(huán)境和機(jī)制下的決策模型。具體研究?jī)?nèi)容包括以下六個(gè)部分:(1)政府決策中的大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)應(yīng)用研究。本文首先采用文獻(xiàn)分析法,從大數(shù)據(jù)采集技術(shù)、大數(shù)據(jù)存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)、大數(shù)據(jù)處理技術(shù)和大數(shù)據(jù)決策支持技術(shù)四個(gè)方面,對(duì)當(dāng)前可用的大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)進(jìn)行全面的梳理和分析,從而明確大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的技術(shù)邊界,為之后的研究奠定技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)。(2)大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策情境研究。在明確大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)邊界的基礎(chǔ)上,本文進(jìn)一步研究了當(dāng)前的大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)環(huán)境下,政府決策思維應(yīng)該進(jìn)行怎樣的轉(zhuǎn)變以及如何進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)變。隨后通過(guò)構(gòu)建公眾參與有效決策模型,分析了大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)對(duì)公眾參與決策帶來(lái)的巨大影響。并討論了政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策中的數(shù)據(jù)種類、數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源、數(shù)據(jù)分析方法以及數(shù)據(jù)安全問(wèn)題。(3)大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)。該部分研究基于大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策的全新情境,以決策的科學(xué)化、民主化、合理化為目標(biāo),討論并重新定義了政府、公眾和專家在政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策中的角色職責(zé),并以此為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)計(jì)大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策機(jī)制。(4)基于近似隨機(jī)占優(yōu)的大數(shù)據(jù)決策模型研究。根據(jù)大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策的數(shù)據(jù)形式的特征,本研究提出了可以同時(shí)分析和處理實(shí)數(shù)、隨機(jī)數(shù)和區(qū)間數(shù)三類決策數(shù)據(jù)的算法理論——概率區(qū)間數(shù)及其運(yùn)算規(guī)則。在此基礎(chǔ)上基于近似隨機(jī)占優(yōu)理論,提出一種考慮了所有公眾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度和效用偏好的決策模型,該模型能夠高效率低成本地處理超大決策群體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度和效用偏好,在保證決策精度的同時(shí),大大降低對(duì)大數(shù)據(jù)處理技術(shù)的要求。(5)政府與公眾異構(gòu)偏好集結(jié)決策模型研究。針對(duì)政府和公眾給出的異構(gòu)偏好,本文通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)模型將政府決策者加工過(guò)的偏好信息還原為較原始的狀態(tài),把公眾與政府決策者的異構(gòu)偏好轉(zhuǎn)化為同一形式,實(shí)現(xiàn)不同類型決策者異構(gòu)偏好的集結(jié)。此外,針對(duì)決策中有多個(gè)政府主體參與決策的情況,本文還進(jìn)一步提出了多個(gè)決策主體的異構(gòu)偏好集結(jié)模型。(6)政府與公眾偏好趨同靶向調(diào)整模型研究。本文首先提出了基于Kendall和諧系數(shù)和基于修正前后的指標(biāo)偏好權(quán)重向量間歐式距離的兩個(gè)滿意度評(píng)估模型。若認(rèn)為滿意度不能滿足決策要求,則需要對(duì)決策者的偏好進(jìn)行調(diào)整。針對(duì)大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下政府投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策的特點(diǎn),本文構(gòu)建了面向不同調(diào)整階段的政府與公眾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和指標(biāo)偏好調(diào)整模型,借助數(shù)學(xué)算法輔助決策雙方根據(jù)自身意愿對(duì)偏好進(jìn)行精準(zhǔn)快速的調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:The construction project of government investment is that in order to achieve the functions of the government, to meet the public demands, implement the strategy of economic and social development, the state budget, funds, or financial capital as a source of repayment of loan funds for construction projects. The government launched a large number of investment projects to improve the living environment, promote the economic society the development, guarantee the steady economic growth of great significance, but also aroused great concern for government investment in the construction of the scientific decision making of the project and potential concerns. The rapid development of information technology provides a new way for us to solve the traditional problems, more and more scholars are optimistic about the potential application of big data technology in the field of government decision making the investment in construction projects. However, because of government decision makers for big data technology is still relatively unfamiliar, not the use of big data thinking Dimensional thinking decision problem, construct the decision logic framework of the new big data environment, put forward a new demand; and familiar with big data technology R & D and do not understand the real decision-making environments and people's demands, to provide the corresponding demand response program. There is an insurmountable gap in knowledge and technical personnel and government big data decision makers, restricting the application of big data technology in government investment decisions in the field. In order to fill the knowledge gap across government policymakers and big data technology personnel, based on the current data collection, storage, processing, sorting out the system development present situation of decision support technology, clarify the technology of boundary data technology. Then in the big data technology range can be achieved within the in-depth analysis of the data under the environment of government investment construction project decision-making situation, and further. The decision mechanism of government investment construction project under the new environment of big data. Finally put forward the decision model in the decision-making environment and new mechanism. The specific research contents include the following six parts: (1) research on big data technology application in government decision-making. Firstly, using the method of literature analysis, from big data acquisition technology, data storage technology, four aspects of large data processing technology and data decision support for comprehensive analysis and analysis of the currently available data technology, so as to clear the boundary technology of data technology, and lay a foundation for the study. (2) after the big data environment government research project making investment and construction. Based on big data technology boundary, this paper further studies the big data technology under the current environment, government decision-making should be how to change and how to Change. Then through the construction of public participation in the effective decision-making model, analysis of large data technology of public participation in the huge impact brought by decision-making. And discussed the construction of government investment project decision of data types, data sources, data analysis and data security issues. (3) big data under the environment of government investment construction project decision-making mechanism design. This part of the study based on the new situation of the government under the big data environment construction project investment decision, to the scientific decision-making, democratic, rational discussion as the goal, and a new definition of the government, the public and experts in the construction project of government investment decision-making in the role, and on the basis of the design of large data under the environment of government investment construction the project decision-making mechanism. (4) research on big data approximate decision model based on stochastic dominance. According to government data environment construction project investment decision according to the number of forms The characteristics, this study proposes can also analyze and deal with real numbers, random number and interval number decision-making data algorithm theory: the probability interval number and its operation rules. Based on this approximation based on stochastic dominance theory, proposes a decision-making model considering all public risk attitudes and preferences, the model is capable of high efficiency and low cost processing of large groups of decision risk attitudes and preferences, in which the decision accuracy at the same time, greatly reduce the large data processing requirements. (5) the government and the public on the heterogeneous preference decision model. According to the preference of the government and the public are heterogeneous, the design model of government decision makers processed preference information reduction as compared to the original state, the heterogeneous preference public and government decision makers into the same form, different types of decision makers of heterogeneous aggregation of preference. In addition, according to the decision of a number of government participation in decision making, this paper further puts forward the main decision-making multiple heterogeneous preference aggregation model. (6) to study the adjustment model of the government and the public preference is given in this paper. The convergence of the target two satisfaction index preference weight vector based on Euclidean distance based on Kendall coefficient and harmony before and after the correction between the satisfaction evaluation model. If that can not meet the demand of decision, requires policymakers preference adjustment. According to the characteristics of big data in government investment project decision-making environment, this paper constructs the government and the public and the risk index of preference adjustment model for different adjustment stage, with the help of mathematical decision algorithm according to both sides own preferences for accurate rapid adjustment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TP311.13;F282
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本文編號(hào)：1366837