本文選題：洪水預(yù)報(bào)　切入點(diǎn)：水文模型　出處：《太原理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：水問(wèn)題已成為21世紀(jì)威脅世界和平、威脅人類生存和生態(tài)安全的首要因素,水利是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),水資源作為國(guó)民基礎(chǔ)生產(chǎn)中的重要自然資源和不可或缺的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源,在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有舉足輕重的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展地位,同時(shí)也是當(dāng)代生態(tài)環(huán)境重要組成部分,在當(dāng)代國(guó)家發(fā)展中具有重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。為解決我國(guó)水資源分布不均的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況,通過(guò)大中型水利工程實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源調(diào)配是我國(guó)目前水利建設(shè)的重要策略。中華人民共和國(guó)成立以來(lái),經(jīng)過(guò)半個(gè)多世紀(jì)的建設(shè)與發(fā)展,水利工程建設(shè)取得了巨大成就,尤其是擔(dān)負(fù)調(diào)峰、調(diào)頻、防洪、灌溉、航運(yùn)及工業(yè)和居民用水等特殊功能和任務(wù)的水庫(kù)工程建設(shè),為中國(guó)的現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)提供了強(qiáng)大的安全防汛和水資源利用保證。但是,洪澇災(zāi)害、干旱缺水、水土流失和水污染等四大問(wèn)題還遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有解決,每年帶來(lái)的損失也越來(lái)越巨大,水資源與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展不適應(yīng)的矛盾越來(lái)越突出,已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重影響全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)代化離不開(kāi)水利現(xiàn)代化的保障,努力探索和實(shí)踐適應(yīng)社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)代水利是水利工作者義不容辭的責(zé)任。面對(duì)嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì),應(yīng)用現(xiàn)代科學(xué)理論和高新技術(shù),對(duì)水利工程實(shí)行科學(xué)管理,確保對(duì)水資源的合理開(kāi)發(fā)、高效利用、優(yōu)化配置、全面節(jié)約、有效保護(hù)和綜合治理,用水利信息化來(lái)帶動(dòng)水利現(xiàn)代化已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)21世紀(jì)水利事業(yè)發(fā)展的必然。水庫(kù)的安全高效率運(yùn)行是保障水資源合理開(kāi)發(fā)利用的基礎(chǔ)。洪水作為威脅水庫(kù)和下游人民財(cái)產(chǎn)安全的重要因素,同時(shí)也是寶貴的水資源,如何在保證大壩安全的前提下盡可能的利用洪水資源,盡可能多發(fā)揮洪水的利用率成為關(guān)鍵的問(wèn)題。建立一套合理的洪水預(yù)報(bào)體系和大壩安全監(jiān)測(cè)平臺(tái)為上級(jí)決策提供便利很有必要�；谝陨戏治龊驼J(rèn)識(shí),本論文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:(1)分析該流域的水文資料,選擇國(guó)內(nèi)較為成熟的水文預(yù)報(bào)模型對(duì)其產(chǎn)流機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。(2)對(duì)流域進(jìn)行單元?jiǎng)澐?分析降雨量,蒸發(fā)量,河道入流資料,分別建立新安江模型和雙超模型,在該流域?qū)ζ溥M(jìn)行參數(shù)優(yōu)化,使其得到較為滿意的預(yù)報(bào)信息。(3)分析大壩的具體情況,優(yōu)化測(cè)壓管管線布置,對(duì)大壩測(cè)壓管進(jìn)行沖洗處理,通過(guò)測(cè)試表明其靈敏度合格,為大壩滲流監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)打下基礎(chǔ)。(4)完成信息采集系統(tǒng)的硬件選型,及構(gòu)建監(jiān)測(cè)硬件的信息傳輸系統(tǒng)的通訊組網(wǎng)的設(shè)計(jì)研究,實(shí)現(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的即時(shí)采集、分析、傳輸、展示和應(yīng)用。通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)回歸模型對(duì)采集回來(lái)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,以判別大壩的安全性。(5)通過(guò)對(duì)改流域洪水兩種模型的預(yù)報(bào),結(jié)合大壩安全監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)編寫(xiě)了水庫(kù)綜合自動(dòng)化系統(tǒng)軟件。滲實(shí)現(xiàn)數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果與SQL、VB、Excel等常用軟件的無(wú)縫鏈接。洪水預(yù)報(bào)和大壩安全監(jiān)測(cè)是水庫(kù)綜合自動(dòng)化系統(tǒng)中的重要組成部分,但對(duì)于水庫(kù)水資源調(diào)度以及視頻監(jiān)控問(wèn)等,須要做更深一步研究。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, water problem has become the most important factor threatening world peace and human survival and ecological security. Water conservancy is the basic industry of national economy. Water resources are important natural resources and indispensable economic resources in national basic production. In order to solve the problem of uneven distribution of water resources in China, it plays an important role in economic development in the national economy, and is also an important part of the contemporary ecological environment, and plays an important strategic role in the development of contemporary countries. The allocation of water resources through large and medium-sized water conservancy projects is an important strategy for water conservancy construction in China. Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, after more than half a century of construction and development, great achievements have been made in the construction of water conservancy projects. In particular, reservoir construction, which has special functions and tasks such as peak-shaving, FM, flood control, irrigation, shipping, industrial and residential water use and other special functions and tasks, has provided a strong guarantee for the modernization of China in flood prevention and water resources utilization. The four major problems of flood disaster, drought and water shortage, soil erosion and water pollution are still far from being solved, and the losses caused by each year are becoming more and more enormous, and the contradiction between water resources and the unsuitable development of the national economy and society is becoming more and more prominent. It has seriously affected the realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The modernization of the economy cannot be separated from the guarantee of the modernization of water conservancy. It is incumbent on water conservancy workers to explore and practice modern water conservancy projects that adapt to the development of socialist economy. In the face of the severe situation, applying modern scientific theory and high and new technology to the scientific management of water conservancy projects, To ensure the rational development of water resources, efficient utilization, optimal allocation, comprehensive conservation, effective protection and comprehensive management, Using water conservancy information to drive water conservancy modernization has become a necessity for the development of water conservancy in 21th century in China. The safe and efficient operation of reservoir is the basis to guarantee the rational development and utilization of water resources. Flood is a threat to reservoir and downstream. Important factors for the safety of people's property, At the same time, it is also a valuable water resource. How to make use of flood resources as far as possible under the premise of ensuring dam safety, Maximizing flood utilization is a key issue. It is necessary to establish a reasonable flood forecasting system and dam safety monitoring platform to facilitate superior decision-making. Based on the above analysis and understanding, The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) analyzing the hydrological data of the basin, selecting the more mature hydrological forecasting model in China to analyze the mechanism of runoff generation. The Xinanjiang model and the double supermodel are established respectively. The parameters of the dam are optimized in the basin to obtain satisfactory forecast information. The concrete situation of the dam is analyzed, the layout of the pressure measuring pipe is optimized, and the pressure measuring pipe of the dam is flushed out. The test shows that its sensitivity is up to standard, which lays the foundation for dam seepage monitoring system. It completes the hardware selection of information collection system and the design of communication network for constructing information transmission system of monitoring hardware. To realize the real-time collection, analysis, transmission, display and application of monitoring data. Through the statistical regression model, the collected data are analyzed to judge the dam safety. Combined with dam safety monitoring system, the software of reservoir integrated automation system is compiled. The results of seepage numerical simulation are seamlessly linked to the common software such as SQL VBX Excel. Flood forecasting and dam safety monitoring are important parts of reservoir integrated automation system. However, more research is needed for reservoir water resource regulation and video surveillance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TP274;TV697.1

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