本文選題：航班計(jì)劃　切入點(diǎn)：決策支持系統(tǒng)　出處：《中國(guó)民航大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：航班計(jì)劃是航空公司生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)的基礎(chǔ)和核心,也是航空公司內(nèi)部進(jìn)行日常工作的核心依據(jù)。航空公司圍繞航班計(jì)劃來(lái)安排人員、調(diào)配運(yùn)力以及進(jìn)行管理。航班計(jì)劃一般是在航季開始前的1個(gè)月就已經(jīng)制定完成。然而,在實(shí)際的生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)中,由于航班銷售數(shù)據(jù)和計(jì)劃前可能存在較大的偏差,航空公司為了節(jié)約資源,提高收入,需要在航班離港前,對(duì)航班計(jì)劃做出調(diào)整。國(guó)內(nèi)各航空公司對(duì)于航班計(jì)劃的調(diào)整,主要仍是由負(fù)責(zé)計(jì)劃制定的工作人員進(jìn)行。而各工作人員對(duì)于航班計(jì)劃調(diào)整方案的確定則主要依賴于工作人員自身的工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及業(yè)務(wù)能力,不僅影響效率而且容易出錯(cuò)。然而,目前國(guó)內(nèi)外還沒(méi)有解決此問(wèn)題成熟的系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn),本文從航空公司的實(shí)際需求出發(fā),研究航班優(yōu)化決策支持系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)。該系統(tǒng)是在現(xiàn)有航班計(jì)劃的基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)航班預(yù)售人數(shù)和歷史售票數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)該航班未來(lái)銷售人數(shù)實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè),及時(shí)合理地調(diào)整航班計(jì)劃(包括:機(jī)型調(diào)整、取消航班、新增航班),從而達(dá)到提高整個(gè)航空公司運(yùn)營(yíng)效益的目的。本文所做的工作如下:(1)提出了一種航線旅客需求的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型,該模型利用預(yù)售人數(shù)和歷史銷售數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)未來(lái)日期航線旅客需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。此項(xiàng)工作是航班計(jì)劃調(diào)整方案的基礎(chǔ)。(2)圍繞航班效益,設(shè)計(jì)了三種航班計(jì)劃調(diào)整方案,包括機(jī)型調(diào)整、取消航班、新增航班。(3)在前兩項(xiàng)工作的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合航空公司的實(shí)際業(yè)務(wù)需求,給出了航班優(yōu)化決策支持系統(tǒng)的整體設(shè)計(jì),并給出了三種調(diào)整方案評(píng)估的具體實(shí)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Flight planning is the basis and core of airline production and operation, as well as the core basis for daily work within the airline. The airline arranges personnel around the flight plan. Deployment of capacity and management. Flight plans are usually completed one month before the start of the season. However, in actual production operations, there may be a large deviation between the flight sales data and the plan, In order to save resources and raise revenue, airlines need to make adjustments to their flight plans before they leave Hong Kong. The determination of the flight plan adjustment programme by the staff members depends primarily on the staff members' own work experience and operational capacity. It not only affects efficiency but also makes mistakes easily. However, there is no mature system to solve this problem at home and abroad. This paper starts from the actual demand of airlines. This paper studies the design and implementation of flight optimization decision support system. The system is based on the existing flight plan, according to the number of flight presale and historical ticket sales data, real-time prediction of the future number of sales of the flight. Timely and reasonable adjustment of flight plans (including: aircraft type adjustment, cancellation of flights, The work done in this paper is as follows: (1) A combined forecasting model of passenger demand on airline routes is proposed, which uses pre-sale number and historical sales data. This work is the basis of the flight plan adjustment scheme. (2) around the flight efficiency, three kinds of flight plan adjustment schemes are designed, including model adjustment, cancellation of flights, On the basis of the first two tasks, combined with the actual business requirements of the airline, the overall design of the flight optimization decision support system is presented, and the concrete implementation of the evaluation of the three adjustment schemes is given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)民航大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F560.6;TP311.52

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