本文關(guān)鍵詞：復(fù)雜社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中基于Agent模型的個體觀點(diǎn)預(yù)測　出處：《東南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 個體觀點(diǎn)預(yù)測 復(fù)雜社交網(wǎng)絡(luò) 復(fù)雜自適應(yīng)理論 Agent個體模型 Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型

【摘要】：近年來,隨著移動終端產(chǎn)品的普及和社交平臺的不斷發(fā)展,人們越來越習(xí)慣使用社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺進(jìn)行人與人之間的溝通交流。然而,社交平臺的匿名化慢慢滋生了一群鍵盤俠,同時,用戶的從眾心理及法不責(zé)眾的心態(tài)也使網(wǎng)絡(luò)極端事件頻有發(fā)生,且由于社交平臺中的信息擴(kuò)散速度之快,政府等相關(guān)部門不易做好防范措施。針對上述問題,就復(fù)雜社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的個體對某一話題的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,對維護(hù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)社會的和諧和安全是充分且必要的。眾所周知,不同的個體對同一話題會持有不同的觀點(diǎn),且個體對他人觀點(diǎn)的認(rèn)可程度會略有差異,受他人觀點(diǎn)的影響程度也會不盡相同。因此,為較好反映個體在形成自我觀點(diǎn)時考慮的各類影響因素,本文綜合考慮復(fù)雜自適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)中的Agent概念,提出并設(shè)計Agent個體模型和Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型,從微觀角度分析社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中某一話題社區(qū)觀點(diǎn)演變過程,并能預(yù)測個體對該話題產(chǎn)生的觀點(diǎn)傾向。為達(dá)到較好的預(yù)測效果,本文首先從抓取的實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)中挖掘出若干話題社區(qū),建立Multi-Agent話題社區(qū)環(huán)境,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對社區(qū)中所有博文及評論文本信息隱含的情感傾向進(jìn)行挖掘。建立話題社區(qū)網(wǎng)絡(luò)動態(tài)模型,模擬社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點(diǎn)間的關(guān)注關(guān)系及交互關(guān)系。其次,建立基于Agent的個體模型,設(shè)計Agent結(jié)構(gòu),將個體接收信息產(chǎn)生觀點(diǎn)的過程映射為Agent通過感知器、控制器、效應(yīng)器處理消息生成觀點(diǎn)的過程,使話題社區(qū)中的Agent具有自主性、適應(yīng)性、社交性、交互性四大特點(diǎn)。并將個體自信度、鄰居依賴度、社區(qū)趨同度三個特征作為Agent個體形成觀點(diǎn)過程中的影響因素。隨后,建立Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)話題社區(qū)環(huán)境中Agent間通訊、交互。并設(shè)計Agent個體觀點(diǎn)交互規(guī)則生成算法,學(xué)習(xí)特征權(quán)值向量。本文在新浪微博實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)上對Agent個體模型和Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型的有效性進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明:(a)從微觀個體角度分析,基于Agent的個體模型和基于Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型能夠較準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測個體觀點(diǎn)變化的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),對話題社區(qū)活躍個體的預(yù)測結(jié)果與實(shí)際結(jié)果出入甚微。(b)從宏觀話題社區(qū)角度分析,利用基于Agent的個體模型和基于Multi-Agent觀點(diǎn)交互模型能夠較好預(yù)測話題社區(qū)所有個體的觀點(diǎn)變化趨勢,且可預(yù)測極端群體的規(guī)模。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the popularity of mobile terminal products and the continuous development of social platform, people are more and more used to use social network platform to communicate between people. The anonymity of social platform has slowly bred a group of keyboard knights, at the same time, the mentality of users' conformity and blame also makes the network extreme events occur frequently, and because of the rapid spread of information in the social platform. The government and other relevant departments are not easy to take precautions. In response to the above problems, the individuals in the complex social networks on a certain topic point of view are predicted. It is necessary and sufficient to maintain the harmony and security of the network society. As we all know, different individuals will hold different views on the same topic, and the degree of recognition of the views of others will be slightly different. Therefore, in order to better reflect the various factors that individuals consider in the formation of self-view, this paper comprehensively considers the concept of Agent in complex adaptive systems. This paper proposes and designs the Agent individual model and the Multi-Agent viewpoint interactive model, and analyzes the evolution process of a topic community viewpoint in social network from the micro point of view. And can predict the individual opinion tendency on this topic. In order to achieve better prediction effect, this paper first excavates a number of topic communities from the collected empirical data. The Multi-Agent topic community environment is established, and on this basis, the emotional tendency of all blog posts and comments text information in the community is excavated, and the dynamic model of topic community network is established. Simulation of social network nodes between the relationship of concern and interaction. Secondly, establish an individual model based on Agent, design the structure of Agent. The process of individual receiving information to produce ideas is mapped to the process of Agent processing message generation ideas through perceptron controller and effector so that Agent in the topic community has autonomy and adaptability. Social, interactive four characteristics. And the individual confidence degree, neighborhood dependence, community convergence degree of three characteristics as the Agent individual formation of the process of influence factors. Establish Multi-Agent viewpoint interaction model, realize communication and interaction between Agent in topic community environment, and design Agent individual viewpoint interaction rule generation algorithm. The effectiveness of the Agent individual model and the Multi-Agent viewpoint interaction model is verified based on the Sina Weibo empirical data. The experimental results show that the Agent individual model and the Multi-Agent viewpoint interaction model are effective. From a microscopic perspective. The individual model based on Agent and the interactive model based on Multi-Agent viewpoint can accurately predict the turning point of individual viewpoint change. The prediction results of active individuals in the topic community are only slightly different from the actual results. (B) from the perspective of macro-topic community analysis. The individual model based on Agent and the interactive model based on Multi-Agent viewpoint can predict the trend of change of opinion of all individuals in the topic community, and can predict the scale of extreme group.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TP393.09

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