【摘要】：我國(guó)自1999年開始進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì),在過去“十二五”時(shí)期我國(guó)人口老齡化趨勢(shì)愈加嚴(yán)峻,隨著老齡人口的增加,給我國(guó)帶來了巨大的養(yǎng)老壓力。為緩解我國(guó)養(yǎng)老問題,我國(guó)基本確立了構(gòu)建“以居家養(yǎng)老為基礎(chǔ)、社區(qū)養(yǎng)老為依托、機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老為補(bǔ)充”的社會(huì)養(yǎng)老服務(wù)體系,目前居家養(yǎng)老的基礎(chǔ)作用并不明顯,社區(qū)養(yǎng)老正在推廣普及階段,這就使得機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老的作用越來越重要,對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老的需求也日益增加。由于養(yǎng)老服務(wù)設(shè)施及服務(wù)的公共性,僅依靠政府財(cái)政資金投資建設(shè)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠的,這為積極探索私人部門參與養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)展,在養(yǎng)老領(lǐng)域推廣PPP模式,助推養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)供給側(cè)改革提供了新機(jī)遇。PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)模式即公私合作伙伴關(guān)系,作為一種新模式參與養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)的建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng),得到了關(guān)注與重視。在PPP模式引入養(yǎng)老服務(wù)領(lǐng)域后,其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理成為重中之重,而有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理以及項(xiàng)目成功的關(guān)鍵因素。本文選取養(yǎng)老服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老PPP項(xiàng)目作為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)進(jìn)行深入研究,以其為合理分擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了決策依據(jù),保障項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施,促進(jìn)社會(huì)養(yǎng)老服務(wù)事業(yè)發(fā)展,形成與我國(guó)老齡化趨勢(shì)相適應(yīng)的養(yǎng)老體系,促進(jìn)和諧社會(huì)的發(fā)展。本文首先介紹了選題的背景及意義,然后對(duì)PPP模式、PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)、博弈論等理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行闡述,為后文研究奠定基礎(chǔ)。為更詳細(xì)研究養(yǎng)老PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)問題,本文在第三章將養(yǎng)老PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)主體界定為公共部門與私人部門,從宏觀、中觀、微觀三個(gè)層面對(duì)養(yǎng)老PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)客體進(jìn)行分析,接下來分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的影響因素及方式,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)方式分為共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與非共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文在第四章結(jié)合項(xiàng)目參與方的地位非對(duì)稱性及公共部門與私人部門出價(jià)順序構(gòu)建了共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)討價(jià)還價(jià)博弈模型,得出了模型的納什均衡解,即各參與方在共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)其所應(yīng)該承擔(dān)的具體比例,通過博弈分析發(fā)現(xiàn)某一方先出價(jià)時(shí)承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比例比后出價(jià)要少,即具備先發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì),公私部門地位的非對(duì)稱性及談判損耗系數(shù)影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的具體承擔(dān)比例�；谝陨戏治�,本文最后提出優(yōu)化養(yǎng)老PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)提出建議,即明確雙方地位對(duì)稱性、加強(qiáng)公共部門與私人部門溝通、建立和完善統(tǒng)一的PPP法律法規(guī)及加強(qiáng)行業(yè)指導(dǎo)、分享風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益、構(gòu)建激勵(lì)制度。
[Abstract]:Our country has entered the aging society since 1999. In the past "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the aging trend of China's population has become increasingly severe. With the increase of the aging population, it has brought great pressure to our country to provide for the aged. In order to alleviate the problem of providing for the aged in our country, we have basically established the social old-age service system, which is based on the old-age support at home, supported by the community pension and supplemented by the institutional old-age support. At present, the basic function of the old-age care at home is not obvious. Community pension is popularizing, which makes the role of institutional pension more and more important, and the demand for institutional pension is increasing day by day. Because of the public nature of pension service facilities and services, it is far from enough to rely on government financial funds to invest in the construction of pension institutions. This is to actively explore the participation of the private sector in the development of pension institutions, and promote the PPP model in the field of old-age care. Promoting the supply-side reform of pension institutions provides a new opportunity. PPP (Public-Private-Partnership) mode, as a new model to participate in the construction and operation of pension institutions, has received attention and attention. After the introduction of PPP model into the field of pension service, its risk management becomes the most important, and effective risk sharing is the key factor of risk management and project success. This paper selects the institutional pension PPP project in the field of old-age service as the research object, carries on the thorough research to its risk sharing, provides the decision basis for the reasonable risk sharing, guarantees the project to carry out smoothly, promotes the social old-age service enterprise development. To form a pension system in accordance with the trend of aging in China and promote the development of a harmonious society. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the topic, then describes the PPP model PPP project risk sharing, game theory and other theoretical basis, for later studies laid a foundation. In order to study the risk sharing of pension PPP project in detail, this paper defines the main body of risk sharing of pension PPP project as public sector and private sector in the third chapter. This paper analyzes the risk object of the pension PPP project from three microcosmic levels, and then analyzes the influencing factors and ways of risk sharing, and divides the risk sharing method into shared risk and non-co-shared risk. In the fourth chapter, considering the asymmetric status of the project participants and the bidding order of the public and private sectors, the paper constructs a game model of shared risk bargaining, and obtains the Nash equilibrium solution of the model. That is, the specific proportion that each participant should bear when they share the risk, through the game analysis, it is found that the proportion of risk taken by one party in the first bid is less than that in the later bid, that is, it has the advantage of first-mover. Asymmetric status of the public and private sector and negotiation loss coefficient affect the specific proportion of the risk. Based on the above analysis, this paper finally puts forward some suggestions to optimize the risk sharing of old-age PPP projects, that is, to clarify the status symmetry of both sides, to strengthen the communication between the public and private sectors, to establish and improve the unified laws and regulations of PPP and to strengthen the industry guidance. Share risk gains and construct incentive system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F283;D669.6;F224.32

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