本文選題：東亞地區(qū) + 軍費(fèi)開支��； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以后,由于兩極格局對(duì)抗的消失,全球總體軍事形勢(shì)趨于緩和,東亞地區(qū)成為世界上少有的幾個(gè)和平地區(qū)之一,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展引人矚目。但與此同時(shí),東亞地區(qū)的冷戰(zhàn)舊秩序在某些方面并沒有實(shí)質(zhì)性的轉(zhuǎn)變,區(qū)域安全合作發(fā)展緩慢,安全困境依然存在,東亞多國(guó)(地區(qū))的軍費(fèi)開支及軍備采購(gòu)呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)上漲的態(tài)勢(shì)。伴隨著東亞地區(qū)國(guó)際格局的重大變化,加上歷史與現(xiàn)實(shí)的原因,各國(guó)進(jìn)一步加快了國(guó)防現(xiàn)代化的步伐,持續(xù)增加軍費(fèi)開支,大力擴(kuò)充軍備。特別是近些年來,由于各國(guó)提高軍備技術(shù)水平和質(zhì)量的速度明顯加快,國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)東亞軍事力量的發(fā)展倍加關(guān)注,關(guān)于東亞地區(qū)軍備競(jìng)賽的觀點(diǎn)甚為流行,"中國(guó)威脅論"也一度甚囂塵上。在此背景下,采用科學(xué)的態(tài)度與方法對(duì)冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)國(guó)家的軍備發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究,具有重大的理論意義與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。我們需要對(duì)東亞地區(qū)的軍備發(fā)展?fàn)顩r作出更準(zhǔn)確和細(xì)致的解析,以期得出更全面、更客觀的結(jié)論。本文立足于歷史研究,同時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)理論聯(lián)系實(shí)際,主要采用定量和定性相結(jié)合的分析方法,以研究冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)的軍備發(fā)展為主旨,以各國(guó)軍費(fèi)開支和主要常規(guī)武器轉(zhuǎn)讓情況為切入點(diǎn),深入分析總結(jié)冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)軍備發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)、特點(diǎn)以及現(xiàn)狀和動(dòng)因,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)東亞地區(qū)的安全形勢(shì)和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行一些思考。文章共分為六個(gè)部分,包括緒論、四個(gè)章節(jié)和結(jié)論。第一部分闡述了冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)軍備發(fā)展?fàn)顩r研究的基本問題。一是本文的選題背景及意義:二是就冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)的軍備發(fā)展?fàn)顩r研究作國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界的研究現(xiàn)狀闡述分析;三是本文的研究思路和方法;四是本文研究的創(chuàng)新之處和不足之處。第二部分對(duì)冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)的軍費(fèi)開支發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行概述分析。主要有兩個(gè)方面,一是軍費(fèi)絕對(duì)量,按全球及東亞地區(qū)、東亞各國(guó)以及匯率的影響進(jìn)行分述;二是軍費(fèi)相對(duì)量,它包括軍費(fèi)開支占GDP的比例、軍人人均軍費(fèi)和全球軍事化指數(shù)等內(nèi)容。第三部分對(duì)冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)的武器轉(zhuǎn)讓發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行論述解析。主要分為武器進(jìn)口和武器出口兩部分,著重對(duì)武器進(jìn)口進(jìn)行分析,具體分為全球的概況、東亞地區(qū)以及各國(guó)的進(jìn)口量情況、各武器類型的比重和武器供應(yīng)國(guó)幾部分論述。由于東亞地區(qū)并不是主要的武器供應(yīng)地,對(duì)于武器出口情況只作簡(jiǎn)要說明。第四部分介紹了當(dāng)前東亞地區(qū)軍備發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,主要包括軍費(fèi)開支、武裝力量的規(guī)模以及武器裝備的概況等內(nèi)容。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來,在大量的軍費(fèi)支撐下,通過武器轉(zhuǎn)讓以及自主研發(fā)等方式,經(jīng)過20多年的發(fā)展,東亞各國(guó)的軍備技術(shù)水平和質(zhì)量迅速發(fā)展,軍事實(shí)力均得到了明顯增強(qiáng)。第五部分探討了冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)軍備發(fā)展的動(dòng)因,主要圍繞如下幾個(gè)問題展開研究:一是安全困境,由于東亞社會(huì)的無(wú)政府特征,使各國(guó)認(rèn)為獲得安全的途徑是"自助"而不是合作,各國(guó)通過"自助"追求安全的同時(shí)必然給相關(guān)國(guó)家?guī)韷毫?因此各國(guó)在追求安全的同時(shí)不可避免地陷入安全困境,二是內(nèi)外因素的綜合作用,東亞地區(qū)的軍備發(fā)展有源于安全困境之下外部刺激的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性,也有來自于內(nèi)在需求的合理性,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)、武器裝備周期性的更新?lián)Q代、軍事生產(chǎn)的制度化、國(guó)內(nèi)政治活動(dòng)以及國(guó)內(nèi)安全威脅等因素,同時(shí)技術(shù)強(qiáng)制性通過內(nèi)外兩個(gè)層面產(chǎn)生著影響。第六部分是全文的結(jié)論。首先對(duì)冷戰(zhàn)后東亞地區(qū)各國(guó)的軍備發(fā)展情況,主要是軍費(fèi)開支和主要常規(guī)武器轉(zhuǎn)讓情況進(jìn)行了一個(gè)回顧和評(píng)析,然后嘗試得出本文的幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論:一是東亞地區(qū)整體而言尚不存在傳統(tǒng)的"軍備競(jìng)賽",其軍備發(fā)展是多重因素綜合作用的結(jié)果,不過在局部地區(qū)確是出現(xiàn)了某種程度的軍備競(jìng)爭(zhēng)趨勢(shì);二是中國(guó)軍備的較快增長(zhǎng)是與中國(guó)國(guó)力發(fā)展相適應(yīng)的,中國(guó)的和平外交方針與防御性國(guó)防戰(zhàn)略決定了中國(guó)的軍備發(fā)展并不必然導(dǎo)致東亞地區(qū)的軍備競(jìng)賽;三是未來東亞地區(qū)軍備發(fā)展的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性可能會(huì)有所加劇,但還是處于可控水平,地區(qū)安全和穩(wěn)定依然是主要的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:After the end of the cold war, the overall military situation in the world has tended to ease, and the East Asia has become one of the few peaceful regions in the world, and the economic and social development is attracting attention. But at the same time, the old order of the cold war in East Asia has not changed substantially in some respects, and the development of regional security cooperation is slow. Slowly, the security dilemma still exists, and the military expenditure and arms purchase of many countries in East Asia have continued to rise. With the major changes in the international pattern of East Asia and the historical and practical reasons, countries have further accelerated the pace of national defense modernization, continued to increase military expenditure and vigorously expanded armaments. Especially in recent years. The international community has paid more attention to the development of East Asian military forces, and the view of the arms race in East Asia is very popular and the "Chinese threat theory" has been on the ground. In this context, the scientific attitude and method have been adopted in the army of East Asian countries after the cold war. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out systematic research on the development of preparation. We need to make a more accurate and detailed analysis of the development of armaments in East Asia in order to draw a more comprehensive and objective conclusion. This article is based on historical research, and emphasizes the combination of theory and Practice, mainly by combining quantitative and qualitative methods. The analysis method, based on the study of armament development in East Asia after the cold war, makes a thorough analysis and summary of the trend, characteristics, status and motivation of armament development in East Asia after the cold war, and on this basis, the security situation and trend of development in East Asia are carried out on the basis of the analysis of the military expenditure and the transfer of the main conventional weapons in the post Cold War countries. The article is divided into six parts, including the introduction, four chapters and conclusions. The first part expounds the basic problems of the research on the development of armaments in East Asia after the cold war. The first is the background and significance of this article: two, on the status of armament development in East Asia after the cold war. The three is the research ideas and methods of this article; four is the innovation and shortcomings of this study. The second part of the military expenditure development situation in East Asia after the cold war is summarized and analyzed. There are two aspects, one is the absolute amount of military expenditure, the influence of the global and East Asia, the East Asian countries and the exchange rate, and the two is the military expenditure phase. It includes the proportion of military expenditure in GDP, the per capita military charge and the global militarization index. The third part discusses the development trend of arms transfer in East Asia after the cold war. It is divided into two parts: arms import and arms export. It focuses on the analysis of the import of weapons, which is divided into a global situation, East Asia. In the fourth part, the current status of armament development in East Asia is introduced, including military expenditure and the scale of armed forces. Since the end of the cold war, with the support of a large number of military expenses, through the development of arms transfer and independent research and development, after 20 years' development, the armament technology level and quality of East Asian countries have developed rapidly, and the military strength has been greatly enhanced. The fifth part discusses the development of armament in East Asia after the cold war. The cause, mainly around the following problems: first, the security dilemma, because of the anarchy characteristics of the East Asian society, so that all countries think that the way to obtain security is "self-help" rather than cooperation. All countries will inevitably bring pressure to the relevant countries through "self-help" pursuit of security, so each country is unavoidable in pursuit of security. In the security dilemma, two is the comprehensive effect of internal and external factors. The development of armaments in East Asia is competitive with external stimuli under the security dilemma, and the rationality of internal demand, including economic growth, periodic renewal of weapons and equipment, institutionalization of military production, domestic political activities and domestic security threats. The sixth part is the conclusion of the full text. First, it reviews and evaluates the military expenditure and the transfer of the main conventional weapons in East Asia after the cold war, and then attempts to draw some conclusions in this paper: one is East Asia. There is no traditional "arms race" in the region as a whole, and its armament development is the result of multiple factors, but in some areas there is a certain degree of military competition trend. Two, the rapid growth of China's armaments is adapted to the development of China's national strength, and China's peaceful diplomatic policy and defensive national defense strategy. It is determined that China's armament development does not necessarily lead to an arms race in East Asia. Three, the competitiveness of armament development in East Asia may be intensified in the future, but it is still at a controllable level, and regional security and stability are still the main trend of development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：E15

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