本文選題：云南松林 + 火險氣象預報模型��； 參考：《中國林業(yè)科學研究院》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：云南松林主要分布于我國西南的云南林區(qū),由于特殊的氣候和地理環(huán)境,加之火源多發(fā),使得該地區(qū)森林火災高發(fā)頻發(fā)、火情處置困難,急需在該地區(qū)開展快速準確的林火預報預測工作。本論文針對云南林區(qū)的主要樹種云南松,從計算快捷簡便的火險氣象模型以及預報結果精度高的火行為模擬模型這2個角度入手,收集并整理國內(nèi)外的主流模型,利用云南松林歷史林火資料、歷史氣象記錄、植被數(shù)據(jù)和地形數(shù)據(jù),測算各預報模型在該地區(qū)的預報精度,從中篩選適宜云南松林的林火預報預測模型,同時還在測報結果的基礎上分析影響預報精度的主要因素,提出模型的改進思路,并在火險氣象預報模型的研究結果上研建了云南松林連續(xù)化火險氣象預報模型以及相應的便于業(yè)務部門使用的技術方法。本論文的研究結果可為云南松林的林火預報預測模型選用提供科學依據(jù),研建的連續(xù)化火險氣象預報模型及相應的技術方法可為該地區(qū)的林火預報預測提供技術支撐。具體來看,本論文主要包括以下幾個方面的研究內(nèi)容、方法和結論:(1)森林火災火險氣象預報模型作為當前林火預防的主要技術手段,由于單純從氣象角度進行預報,預報模型計算簡單、預報因子獲取容易,特別適合在基層業(yè)務單位使用。針對當前國內(nèi)的火險氣象預報模型主要都針對東北林區(qū)研建的現(xiàn)狀,利用云南省曲靖市麒麟?yún)^(qū)防火辦轄區(qū)內(nèi)2013-2015年的實際林火資料,對國內(nèi)目前主流的火險預報模型進行測報,根據(jù)測報結果進行模型評價研究。研究結果表明,“全國森林火險天氣等級”的Kappa精度系數(shù)值最高,為0.308,其次是“多因子法”的0.233;“全國森林火險天氣等級”的EC可接受錯誤系數(shù)位居第3,為0.778,低于“雙指標法”、“801法”和“溫濕度法”這3個模型的1.000,以及“三指標法”的0.981。因此,“全國森林火險天氣等級”是在研究區(qū)背景下預報精度最高的火險氣象預報模型,適用于云南松林區(qū)的森林火險氣象預報。(2)針對“全國森林火險天氣等級”存在預報結果容易產(chǎn)生階躍誤差、由于直接使用氣象臺站數(shù)據(jù)導致預報結果不準確、冗長的計算過程不利于野外防火工作者在巡山護林和撲救指揮時進行快速化的火險計算的問題,提出一種可以克服以上問題的“連續(xù)化森林火險氣象預報模型”,經(jīng)過與傳統(tǒng)預報結果的比較顯示,該改進模型提高了預報精度。同時,基于該改進模型提出了利用GIS系統(tǒng)所提供的小區(qū)域地理環(huán)境和地圖數(shù)據(jù)分析的功能,進行連續(xù)化森林火險氣象預報的方法;基于該改進模型提出一種基于嵌入式系統(tǒng)和安卓平臺的小區(qū)域森林火險等級測報儀,解決以往森林火險預報無法凸顯局部重大火險區(qū)以及野外防火工作人員以往無法實時探測和計算所在地區(qū)火險等級的問題。(3)通過火行為模擬模型獲取林火行為特征進行林火預防和撲救是國外林火管理發(fā)達國家目前主流采用的林火管理手段�；鹦袨槟M模型需要綜合氣象、可燃物、地形等多要素,預報結果較之森林火險氣象預報準確度提高不少,同時預報結果可同時反映林火發(fā)生可能性和發(fā)生后的火行為特征,便于為火前預報和火后處置提供決策支持,具有更好的實際參考價值。因此,選用美國和加拿大行業(yè)普遍使用的Farsite和Prometheus火行為模擬模型對發(fā)生在云南松林的安寧“3·29”森林大火進行模擬,通過對比模擬結果和相關林火資料,定量評價模型的模擬精度。結果表明:在蔓延范圍模擬方面,Farsite在Scott可燃物模型下的模擬精度最高,Prometheus最差,但差距不大,Farsite與Prometheus火場范圍的差異區(qū)主要集中在云南松分布區(qū);在蔓延速度模擬方面,Farsite在2種可燃物模型下的平均ROS模擬輸出最接近實際情況,Prometheus則偏離實際情況較遠,Farsite與Prometheus的ROS差異區(qū)主要集中在云南松分布區(qū);在火線強度模擬方面,Farsite在2種可燃物模型下的平均FLI模擬輸出結果類似,Farsite與Prometheus的輸出差異較大,差異區(qū)主要集中在櫟類灌木分布區(qū)。
[Abstract]:The Yunnan pine forest is mainly distributed in the Yunnan forest area in the southwest of China. Due to the special climate and geographical environment and the fire source, the forest fire is frequent and difficult to deal with. It is urgent to carry out rapid and accurate prediction of forest fire prediction in this area. This paper is based on the fast calculation of the main tree tree of the Yunnan forest area, Yunnan pine. A simple and convenient fire hazard meteorological model and a high precision simulation model of fire behavior are used to collect and organize the mainstream models at home and abroad, and use the historical forest fire data of Yunnan pine forest, historical meteorological records, vegetation data and terrain data to calculate the prediction accuracy of the prediction model in this area, and select the suitable Yunnan from which Yunnan is suitable. The prediction model of forest fire prediction of the pine forest is also made, and the main factors affecting the prediction accuracy are analyzed on the basis of the results of the report. The improvement ideas of the model are put forward, and the meteorological forecast model of the Yunnan pine forest continuous fire risk and the technical method to be used by the business departments should be built on the result of the study on the weather forecast model of fire insurance. The research results of the paper can provide scientific basis for the selection of forest fire prediction model in Yunnan, and the continuous fire weather forecast model and the corresponding technical methods can provide technical support for the prediction of forest fire in this area. As the main technical means of forest fire prevention, the weather forecast model of forest fire fire risk is the main technical means. Because of the simple weather forecast, the prediction model is simple, the prediction factor is easy to obtain, and it is especially suitable for use in the grass-roots units. Based on the actual forest fire data of 2013-2015 years in the Qilin District fire control area of Qujing, Yunnan, the current mainstream fire risk forecasting model was reported and the model evaluation was carried out according to the results of the report. The results showed that the Kappa precision system of "National Forest Fire Weather Grade" was the highest, followed by "multiple factors". "Law" 0.233; "National Forest Fire Weather Grade" EC acceptable error coefficient is third, 0.778, lower than the "double index method", "801 method" and "temperature and humidity" of the 3 models of 1, and the "three index method" of the 0.981. therefore, "national forest fire danger sky grade" is the highest prediction accuracy in the research area. The weather forecast model of fire insurance is suitable for the weather forecast of forest fire risk in Yunnan pine forest area. (2) the step error is easily produced for the prediction results of "National Forest Fire Weather Grade", because the direct use of meteorological station data leads to the inaccuracy of the forecast results, and the lengthy calculation process is not conducive to the field fire workers in the mountain patrol and the forest protection. The problem of fast fire risk calculation when fighting and commanding is put forward, and a "continuous forest fire weather forecast model" which can overcome the above problems is proposed. After comparing with the traditional forecast results, the improved model improves the prediction accuracy. At the same time, based on the improved model, the small area geography provided by the GIS system is put forward. The function of the environment and the map data analysis to carry out the method of continuous forest fire weather forecast. Based on the improved model, a residential area forest fire risk rating system based on embedded system and Android platform is put forward to solve the previous forest fire risk forecast can not highlight the local major fire danger zone and the field fire workers in the past. The method of real-time detection and calculation of fire risk grade in the region. (3) the forest fire prevention and rescue by fire behavior simulation model is the mainstream method of forest fire management in the developed countries of foreign forest fire management. The simulation model of fire behavior needs many factors such as comprehensive weather, combustibles, terrain and so on. The accuracy of forest fire weather forecast has been improved a lot, and the forecast results can simultaneously reflect the possibility of forest fire and the characteristics of fire behavior after the occurrence of fire. It is easy to provide decision support for pre fire prediction and post fire disposal. Therefore, the Farsite and Prometheus fire, which is widely used in the United States and Canada, are selected. The simulation model was used to simulate the "3. 29" forest fire in Yunnan pine forest. By comparing the simulation results and related forest fire data, the simulation accuracy of the model was evaluated quantitatively. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of Farsite in the Scott combustible model was the highest and the Prometheus was the worst, but the gap was not large, Farsit The difference zone between E and Prometheus fire field is mainly concentrated in the Yunnan pine distribution area; in the spread speed simulation, the average ROS analog output of Farsite under 2 combustible models is most close to the actual situation, Prometheus deviates from the actual situation, and the ROS difference zone between Farsite and Prometheus is mainly concentrated in the Yunnan pine distribution area; it is strong in the fire line. In degree simulation, the average FLI simulation output of Farsite under 2 combustible models is similar. The difference between the output of Farsite and Prometheus is large, and the difference area is mainly concentrated in the distribution area of oak shrubs.
【學位授予單位】：中國林業(yè)科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S762

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