發(fā)布時間：2018-01-26 08:07

  本文關鍵詞： 寶雞峽灌區(qū) 作物需水量 灌溉需水量 氣候變化　出處：《西北農林科技大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：受氣候變化的影響,極端天氣事件頻次趨多,水資源安全遭受極大挑戰(zhàn),尤其是農業(yè)灌溉用水形勢頗為嚴峻,直接威脅到糧食安全問題。寶雞峽引渭灌區(qū)是陜西省最大的灌區(qū),對陜西省的農業(yè)生產乃至整個國民經濟和社會發(fā)展起到極其重要的作用與影響。本研究以寶雞峽灌區(qū)為主要研究對象,綜合考慮灌區(qū)的氣候資料、主要作物資料及灌溉農業(yè)發(fā)展狀況等因素對灌區(qū)農業(yè)需水的影響,研究灌區(qū)農業(yè)需水的影響因素和時空變化規(guī)律,為制定氣候變化條件下的灌區(qū)農業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃、確定合理的作物灌溉定額和種植制度,以及為應對氣候變化灌區(qū)應采取的應對措施等提供參考。通過本文的研究,主要取得以下結果:(1)由于氣象因素變化具有隨機性,且波動起伏較大,根據(jù)氣象因素的時間序列資料,本文分別計算各氣象因素的平均值,并消除隨機因素的波動影響,以顯示各氣象因素的變化趨勢,依據(jù)變化趨勢進行分析預測。根據(jù)寶雞峽引渭灌區(qū)12個氣象站點的地理位置和氣象資料,計算灌區(qū)1961~2010年間逐月、逐年主要作物生育期的平均氣溫、最高氣溫、最低氣溫、平溫風速、平均相對濕度、日照時數(shù)及降水量。運用時間序列分析法,探討各氣象因素的時間演變規(guī)律。分析發(fā)現(xiàn):寶雞峽灌區(qū)的面平均氣溫、最高氣溫及最低氣溫50年內總體呈波動性上升趨勢,且最高氣溫和最低氣溫從1985年以后,表現(xiàn)出明顯穩(wěn)定增溫效應。灌區(qū)面平均降水量和標準化降水指數(shù)(SPI)在時間序列上雖呈現(xiàn)頻繁的波動性,但降水量與SPI在時間序列上總體呈下降趨勢,且近20年來灌區(qū)氣象干旱程度越來越嚴重,發(fā)生的頻率增多,導致灌區(qū)向暖干方向演變。灌區(qū)相對濕度、風速和日照時數(shù)長時間尺度上的周期性變化不明顯。此外,Hurst指數(shù)分析和小波分析的結果也表明:灌區(qū)平均氣溫、最高氣溫、最低氣溫和相對濕度呈增加趨勢,風速、日照時數(shù)、降水量和SPI呈下降趨勢。綜合分析不同研究方法的結果,本文認為:未來寶雞峽灌區(qū)各氣象因素在未來長時間尺度上,將向暖干化方向變化。(2)從時間尺度上分析計算了寶雞峽灌區(qū)內各站點各種主要作物多年平均的年際和年內需水量變化趨勢。分析結果表明:棉花是四種主要作物中需水量最大的作物,1961~2010年棉花的多年平均需水量達到626.34 mm/a,多年日平均需水量介于1.53~4.70 mm/d之間;油菜的需水量次之,為574.38 mm/a,多年日平均需水量介于0.84~3.00mm/d之間;夏玉米的需水量較小,為468.61 mm/a,多年日平均需水量介于3.20~5.03mm/d之間;冬小麥的需水量最小,為447.32 mm/a,多年日平均需水量介于0.89~3.08mm/d之間。同時,分析了灌區(qū)不同作物的生育期內不同水文頻率對應的需水量的年內變化規(guī)律。從空間尺度上,對寶雞峽灌區(qū)12個站點1960~2010年50年間不同作物逐年全生育期需水量進行了分析。咸陽站冬小麥需水量多年平均值最大,達539.32mm/a;興平站冬小麥需水量多年平均值最小,為466.76mm/a。咸陽站夏玉米需水量多年平均值最大,達520.59mm/a;扶風站夏玉米需水量多年平均值最小,為461.09mm/a。咸陽站棉花需水量多年平均值最大,達694.85mm/a;興平站的棉花需水量多年平均值最小,為617.60mm/a。咸陽站油菜需水量多年平均值最大,達610.05mm/a;興平站油菜需水量多年平均值最小,為530.94mm/a。(3)考慮到灌區(qū)面尺度上的作物需水量分布具有空間變異性,本文通過灌區(qū)內各代表點的作物需水量資料來估計寶雞峽灌區(qū)整個面尺度的需水量分布特征,通過空間插值方法獲得25%、50%、75%三個水文年型的灌區(qū)各主要作物的需水量空間分布特征。寶雞峽灌區(qū)四種作物(冬小麥、夏玉米、棉花和油菜)需水量的空間分布特征基本一致,總體主要呈現(xiàn)為:從西至東逐漸增加和局部減少,從北到南整體上呈現(xiàn)逐漸減少和局部略有增加的變化特征。其中在灌區(qū)內12個站點中,北部的乾縣站、禮泉站和東部的咸陽站不同作物在不同水文年型的需水量均偏大,而灌區(qū)中南部的扶風站和興平站的需水量則明顯偏低。(4)以往有關氣象要素對作物需水量的影響研究中,大多采用相關分析法,但實際上各氣象要素之間也存在較大相關性,對分析結果造成一定的影響。為此本文采用通徑分析法,逐一分析各氣象因素對寶雞峽灌區(qū)作物需水量的影響,以及揭示各氣象因素對作物需水量影響的相對重要性,并分析影響作物需水量的限制性氣象因子。結果表明:寶雞峽灌區(qū)影響作物需水量的主要氣象因子是風速、日照時數(shù)、相對濕度、最高氣溫和平均氣溫,其決策系數(shù)絕對值均在10%以上。最低氣溫對冬小麥需水量綜合影響的決策系數(shù)為-5.42%,是主要限制性因素。最高氣溫對夏玉米需水量綜合影響的決策系數(shù)為-10.99%,是主要限制性因素。最低氣溫對棉花需水量綜合影響的決策系數(shù)為-4.53%,是主要限制性因素。最高氣溫對油菜需水量綜合影響的決策系數(shù)為-14.35%,是主要限制性因素。(5)應用回歸分析法,進一步逐一分析研究了各氣象因素對寶雞峽灌區(qū)灌溉需水量的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在冬小麥生育期,日照時數(shù),平均氣溫和最高氣溫與灌溉需水量之間呈正相關關系,相對濕度和降水量與灌溉需水量之間呈負相關關系。夏玉米生育期,平均氣溫、最高氣溫、日照時數(shù)與灌溉需水量之間呈正相關關系,相對濕度、降水量與灌溉需水量呈負相關關系,spi與夏玉米需水量也達到了極顯著的相關性。平均氣溫、日照時數(shù)、相對濕度、最高氣溫、風速和降水量對棉花的需水量影響較大。平均氣溫、最高氣溫、日照時數(shù)與棉花需水量之間呈正相關關系,spi與棉花灌溉需水量呈極顯著的負相關關系。平均氣溫、最高氣溫、日照時數(shù)與油菜灌溉需水量之間呈正相關關系,而相對濕度、降水量與油菜灌溉需水量呈負相關關系。(6)綜合考慮寶雞峽灌區(qū)主要作物種植結構特點、種植面積、自然和經濟條件及作物需求等,本研究參照目前常用的計算公式,計算了不同氣候條件下的寶雞峽灌區(qū)的節(jié)水潛力,在豐水年,主要作物的節(jié)水潛力最大,冬小麥和夏玉米的節(jié)水潛力分別為78.93 mm和122.72 mm;在平水年,作物的節(jié)水潛力較豐水年小,冬小麥、夏玉米、棉花、油菜的節(jié)水潛力分別為40.96 mm、105.93 mm、125.01 mm和70.65 mm;在干旱年,冬小麥、夏玉米、油菜的節(jié)水潛力為0,棉花節(jié)水潛力為24.10 mm�？傮w來看,寶雞峽灌區(qū)在豐水年有較大的節(jié)水潛力,節(jié)水潛力與年型和作物都有密切的關系。
[Abstract]:Affected by climate change, extreme weather events tended to increase, water resources security suffered great challenges, especially the agricultural irrigation water situation is quite grim, a direct threat to the food security problem. Baoji Gorge Irrigation District is the largest irrigation district in Shaanxi Province, the Shaanxi Province agricultural production and the national economic and social development to the role and influence of extremely important. Based on the case study of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District as the main research object, considering the irrigation data and climate data, the main crop irrigation agriculture development status and other factors on the impact of irrigation water requirement, variation and temporal effects of irrigation water, irrigation and agricultural development planning and development for climate under the change, determine a reasonable crop irrigation quota and cropping system, and provide a reference should be taken to cope with climate change in measures through this research. The main results are as follows: (1) due to the randomness of the changes of meteorological factors, and fluctuations, according to the time series data of meteorological factors, calculate the average value of the various meteorological factors respectively, and to eliminate the fluctuation of the influence of random factors, in order to show the change trend of the meteorological factors, based on the trend analysis and forecast according to the Baoji Gorge Irrigation District of 12 meteorological stations in the geographical location and meteorological data, calculate the irrigation area during 1961~2010 month, average temperature, yearly growth period of main crops of the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, horizontal temperature wind speed, average relative humidity, sunshine hours and precipitation. By using the time series analysis method, to explore the various meteorological factors the time evolution law. Analysis shows that the average temperature of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District, the highest temperature and the lowest temperature in 50 years showed an overall upward trend in volatility, and the highest and lowest temperature from 198 5 years later, showed stable warming effect. Precipitation index average precipitation and irrigation standard (SPI) in the time series has fluctuated frequently, but the precipitation and SPI time series in the overall downward trend, and nearly 20 years irrigation meteorological drought degree is more and more serious. The frequency of occurrence increased, resulting in irrigation evolution to warm dry direction. Irrigation area, relative humidity, wind and sunshine when the periodic change number on a long time scale is not obvious. In addition, Hurst index analysis and wavelet analysis results also show that: Irrigation average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity increased, the wind speed, sunshine hours, precipitation and SPI decreased. The results of a comprehensive analysis of different research methods, this paper think: the future of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District of various meteorological factors in the future on a long time scale, the direction of change to warm and dry. (2) from the time scale Analysis and calculation of the Baoji Gorge Irrigation District within the site main crop years average annual water volume change and domestic demand trends. Analysis results show that the water requirement of cotton is the largest crop of four main crops, cotton 1961~2010 multi-year average water demand reached 626.34 mm/a, between the daily average water requirement is 1.53~4.70 mm/d; rape the water requirement of 574.38 years between mm/a, daily average water demand is 0.84~3.00mm/d; low water consuming of summer maize, 468.61 mm/a, between the years of daily average water demand is 3.20~5.03mm/d; winter wheat water requirement minimum is 447.32 mm/a, between the years of daily average water demand is 0.89~3.08mm/d. At the same time, analyzed the change law of water required for irrigation period corresponding to different crops in different hydrologic years. From the spatial scale, the Baoji Gorge Irrigation District 12 site 1960~ between 2010 and 50 Water of different crops in the whole growth period for year by year were analyzed. The winter wheat water requirement for maximum average value of the XianYang Railway Station, XinPing Railway Station reached 539.32mm/a; winter wheat water requirement over the average minimum, 466.76mm/a. XianYang Railway Station for Summer Corn over the average maximum, up to 520.59mm/a; the Fufeng station for Summer Corn over the average minimum, 461.09mm/a. XianYang Railway Station the average water demand of cotton was the largest, up to 694.85mm/a; the XinPing Railway Station cotton water requirement for many years the average minimum 617.60mm/a. years average rape water requirement of XianYang Railway Station, XinPing Railway Station reached 610.05mm/a; rape water requirement for many years the average minimum, 530.94mm/a. (3) taking into account the scale on the surface irrigation water requirement of crop distribution has spatial variability in this paper, the representative points in the irrigation area of crop water demand data to estimate the water distribution characteristics of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District of the scale, 25%, through the 50% spatial interpolation methods, the spatial distribution characteristics of water demand of the main crops irrigation area of 75% three hydrological years. The Baoji Gorge Irrigation District Four Crops (winter wheat, maize, cotton and rapeseed) water spatial distribution is consistent, overall are: increased gradually from west to East. And reduce the local variation from north to south, showing the overall decreased and increased slightly. The local irrigation area in 12 sites in the north of the Qianxian County station, XianYang Railway Station and Liquan station of different crops in the eastern part of the water demand in different hydrological years are relatively large, and the water requirement of irrigated area of Fufeng south station and the XinPing Railway Station is obviously lower. (4) the effects of meteorological factors on crop water requirement, mostly by correlation analysis method, but there are also great correlation between the meteorological factors of actually, analysis the result of certain. Ring. This paper uses path analysis method, analyzes the influence of meteorological factors on the Baoji Gorge Irrigation District, crop water requirement, and reveal the relative importance of meteorological factors on crop water impact, and to analyze the impact of meteorological factors limiting crop water requirement. The results showed that the main meteorological factors affecting crop water requirement of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District is the wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine hours, maximum temperature and average temperature, the decision coefficient absolute value was above 10%. The minimum temperature of decision coefficient comprehensive effect of winter wheat water requirement is -5.42%, is the main limiting factor. The highest temperature of decision coefficient for summer maize comprehensive effects of water is -10.99%. Is the main limiting factor. The minimum temperature of decision coefficient of cotton needs comprehensive effects of water is -4.53%, is the main limiting factor. The highest temperature to the effect of water content on rape comprehensive decision coefficient -14.35%, is the main limiting factor. (5) analysis using regression analysis, further study the influence of meteorological factors on irrigation water demand of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District. The study found: in the growth period of winter wheat, sunshine hours, average temperature and maximum temperature and irrigation water amount was positively related to relationship between a a negative correlation between relative humidity and precipitation and irrigation water demand. During the growth period of summer maize, average temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine hours and irrigation water were positively correlated, between relative humidity, precipitation and irrigation was negatively correlated with SPI content of summer maize water demand has reached a significant correlation. The average temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity, maximum temperature, water requirement of wind speed and precipitation of cotton is larger. The average temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine hours and cotton showed positive correlation between the content of SPI, and cotton Irrigation is a significant negative correlation between water. The average temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine hours and rape irrigation was positively related to the relationship between water, and relative humidity, precipitation and irrigation of rape is negatively related to water. (6) considering the main crops in Baoji Gorge Irrigation District planting structure, planting area, natural and economic conditions and crop demand, this study refers to the present commonly used formula, the water-saving potential under different climatic conditions of Baoji Gorge Irrigation District was calculated in wet year, the largest water saving potential of main crops, the water saving potential of winter wheat and summer maize were 78.93 mm and 122.72 mm; the water level. The water saving potential of crops is a wet year, winter wheat, maize, cotton, rape water-saving potential was 40.96 mm, 105.93 mm, 125.01 mm and 70.65 mm; in drought years, winter wheat, maize, rape water-saving potential is 0 cotton As a whole, the water saving potential is 24.10 mm., and the irrigation area in Baoji gorge has great water saving potential in the year of abundant water. The potential of water saving is closely related to the annual type and crop.

【學位授予單位】：西北農林科技大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S274;S311
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本文編號：1465130