本文關(guān)鍵詞：多因子變化對(duì)中國(guó)主要作物產(chǎn)量和溫室氣體排放的影響研究　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： DLEM-AG2.0模型 多種環(huán)境因子 作物產(chǎn)量 溫室氣體排放 氣候智慧型農(nóng)業(yè)

【摘要】：全球氣候和人類(lèi)活動(dòng)引起的環(huán)境變化已成為農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)。而農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)不僅是氣候變化的承受者,也是導(dǎo)致N_2O和CH_4增加的重要排放源。如何在確保糧食安全的同時(shí),減少溫室氣體排放,是當(dāng)前我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)全球變化的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化和人類(lèi)活動(dòng)造成的多因子環(huán)境變化對(duì)中國(guó)主要農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量和溫室氣體排放的影響,對(duì)制定"氣候智慧型農(nóng)業(yè)"策略,促進(jìn)國(guó)家糧食安全和可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有極其重要的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。而多因子協(xié)同作用、大區(qū)域尺度人類(lèi)活動(dòng)和管理措施的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)建立和參數(shù)化以及陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)模型與基于過(guò)程的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)理模型的有機(jī)結(jié)合,是當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)增產(chǎn)和減排的研究熱點(diǎn)與難點(diǎn)。本文基于歷史實(shí)驗(yàn)和觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模型的農(nóng)業(yè)模塊(DLEM-Ag)進(jìn)行改進(jìn)升級(jí),得到基于作物生長(zhǎng)過(guò)程的DLEM-AG2.0模型,并應(yīng)用該模型模擬分析多因子環(huán)境變化(氣候、大氣C0_2、對(duì)流層0_3、氮沉降、氮肥施用量以及土地覆蓋和利用)對(duì)1980-2012年中國(guó)主要農(nóng)作物(小麥、玉米和水稻)產(chǎn)量以及溫室氣體(N0_2、CH_4)排放的影響,為制定未來(lái)適宜的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和管理措施提供理論依據(jù)。主要結(jié)果如下:(1)改進(jìn)的DLEM-AG2.0模型可以模擬中國(guó)不同氣候條件和管理措施下小麥、玉米和水稻的葉面積增長(zhǎng)、干物質(zhì)積累、產(chǎn)量形成以及溫室氣體(N_20和CH_4)排放的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程,模擬誤差均小于20%。DLEM-AG2.0能夠用來(lái)模擬中國(guó)多種環(huán)境因子變化對(duì)作物產(chǎn)量和溫室氣體排放的影響。(2)1980～2012年間,中國(guó)平均溫度、大氣C0_2濃度、0_3濃度、大氣氮沉降和氮肥施用量增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)都非常顯著;降水年際間變化較大;玉米種植面積顯著增加,增加速率為0.05×108hayr-1;小麥和水稻面積均以0.02×108hayr-1的趨勢(shì)下降。(3)在多種環(huán)境因子變化的情況下,1980～2012年間中國(guó)小麥、玉米和水稻的產(chǎn)量均有所增加,但相對(duì)于80年代,增產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)在2000年代下降了 52.6～99.5%。1980～2012年間中國(guó)小麥、玉米和水稻田的N_2O、CH_4排放分別增加了 27.2～54.3%和20.1～34.7%,但在2000年代下降趨勢(shì)顯著。中國(guó)小麥、玉米和水稻的產(chǎn)量、N_20以及CH_4排放都存在顯著的時(shí)空差異。1980～2012年間,氣候變化和0_3濃度增加使三種作物產(chǎn)量分別降低了產(chǎn)量變化的39.8%～64.9%和4.5%～13.8%,該負(fù)面影響逐漸增大。氮肥施用量增加對(duì)作物產(chǎn)量升高的貢獻(xiàn)CO_2濃度急速增加土地利用和覆蓋變化大氣氮沉降,氮肥施用量增加和土地利用變化的貢獻(xiàn)作用在2000年代有所降低,C0_2濃度增加和大氣氮沉降的貢獻(xiàn)不斷增強(qiáng)。(4)1980～2012年間,氣候變化使中國(guó)小麥、玉米和水稻田N_20排放量降低了排放變量的13.7%～29.7%,且負(fù)效應(yīng)增加趨勢(shì)顯著(p＜0.01)。氮肥施用量增加對(duì)中國(guó)作物田N_20排放量增加的貢獻(xiàn)土地利用和覆蓋變化CO_2濃度變化大氣氮沉降0_3濃度變化。而土地利用和覆蓋變化對(duì)水稻田CH_4排放量升高的貢獻(xiàn)CO_2濃度增加氣候變化＞ 氮肥施用量增加＞大氣氮沉降。大氣0_3濃度抑制水稻CH_4排放量增加。
[Abstract]:The environmental changes caused by global climate and human activities has become a major challenge for the sustainable development of the agricultural ecosystem. And agricultural ecosystem is not only climate change bear, which is also the important source of N_2O and CH_4 increase. How to ensure food security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is currently China's response to global change the effects of multiple factors. A pressing matter of the moment to understand climate change and environmental changes caused by human activities on the China main crop yield and greenhouse gas emissions, to develop "climate smart agriculture" strategy, has extremely important theoretical and practical significance to promote the national food security and sustainable development. The multi factor synergy, large scale database human activities and management measures and the establishment of parametric and terrestrial ecosystem model and based on the process mechanism model of the agricultural machine. That is the research hotspot and difficulty of the agricultural ecosystem production and emission reduction. The history of experimental and observational data based on agricultural module of terrestrial ecosystem dynamic model (DLEM-Ag) to upgrade, the DLEM-AG2.0 model of crop growth process based on multi factor analysis and environmental change by using this model (climate, atmosphere C0_2, the 0_3, nitrogen deposition, nitrogen fertilizer and land cover and use of 1980-2012 Chinese) main crops (wheat, maize and rice yield) and greenhouse gases (N0_2, CH_4) the effect of discharge, provide a theoretical basis for the future development of appropriate agricultural production and management measures. The main results are as follows: (1) the improved DLEM-AG2.0 model can simulate the wheat China different climate conditions and management measures, the leaf area of maize and rice growth, dry matter accumulation and yield formation of greenhouse gases (N_20 CH_4) and the dynamic process of emissions, simulation error is less than 20%.DLEM-AG2.0 can be used to simulate the Chinese various environmental factors on crop yield and greenhouse gas emissions. (2) from 1980 to 2012 years, China average temperature, atmospheric C0_2 concentration, 0_3 concentration, atmospheric nitrogen deposition and nitrogen growth trend is very significant; annual variation of precipitation; corn acreage increased significantly, the increase rate of 0.05 * 108hayr-1; wheat and rice area decreased to 0.02 * 108hayr-1 (3). The trend of changes in various environmental factors under the condition of 1980 ~ 2012 years China wheat, maize and rice yield were increased, but compared to 80s. The trend of yield decreased by 52.6 ~ 99.5%.1980 ~ 2012 Chinese wheat in 2000s, maize and paddy field N_2O, CH_4 emissions were increased by 27.2 ~ 54.3% and 20.1 ~ 34.7%, but decreased in 2000s A significant trend. Chinese wheat, maize and rice yield, N_20 and CH_4 emissions are remarkable temporal and spatial difference of.1980 ~ 2012 years, climate change and the increase in 0_3 concentration in three kinds of crop yield were decreased by 39.8% ~ 64.9% and the yield change from 4.5% to 13.8%, the negative effect gradually increases. The increase of nitrogen on crop the yield increased the contribution of CO_2 concentration increased rapidly in land use and land cover changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition, the increase of nitrogen and land use change contribution decreased in 2000s, the increase of C0_2 concentration and the contribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition increased. (4) from 1980 to 2012 years, climate change makes China wheat, corn and rice fields N_20 emissions reducing emissions from 13.7% to 29.7% variables, and the negative effect of increased significantly (P < 0.01). The amount of nitrogen fertilizer increased with increase of crop field land China N_20 emissions With the change of CO_2 concentration and cover change of atmospheric nitrogen deposition 0_3 concentration. The land use and cover change on paddy field increased CH_4 emissions with the increase of CO_2 concentration, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer increased climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition of atmospheric 0_3 concentration. The inhibition of rice CH_4 emissions increased.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S181

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