本文關(guān)鍵詞：長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病疫情特征分析及趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 手足口病 流行特征 趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè) ARIMA季節(jié)乘積模型

【摘要】：手足口病是我國(guó)法定丙類(lèi)傳染病報(bào)告中發(fā)病數(shù)最高的,自2008年以來(lái)全國(guó)年發(fā)病數(shù)均超過(guò)100萬(wàn)例,2014年更達(dá)270萬(wàn)例以上。我國(guó)手足口病主要發(fā)生在5歲及以下兒童,尤其是1-3歲年齡組更易發(fā)展為重癥和危重癥病例,嚴(yán)重影響了兒童的身心健康,給家庭和社會(huì)也帶來(lái)了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)。手足口病病原體種類(lèi)多樣,傳播途徑復(fù)雜,容易在短時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)較大范圍流行,需采取針對(duì)性措施,才能加以預(yù)防和控制。目的:本研究旨在對(duì)長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病的發(fā)病狀況進(jìn)行描述,分析其流行特征、EV71和Cox A16等病原構(gòu)成特點(diǎn)和主導(dǎo)毒株情況,建立模型對(duì)發(fā)病情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并使用2016年發(fā)病數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,從而為今后的預(yù)防和控制提供參考資料。方法:本研究收集長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病的疫情監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),采用流行病學(xué)描述性研究方法對(duì)整體疫情和重癥病例進(jìn)行三間分布分析,利用Mapinfo 9.5軟件對(duì)不同年份的手足口病地區(qū)發(fā)病率進(jìn)行描述,分析不同時(shí)間、地區(qū)、人群間手足口病的流行特征;用Excel 2016軟件對(duì)病原學(xué)檢測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行整理,對(duì)病原構(gòu)成的分布情況進(jìn)行描述性分析;使用R軟件建立ARIMA季節(jié)乘積模型,對(duì)2016年1-7月的短期發(fā)病趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和分析。采用SPSS 18.0軟件進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,計(jì)數(shù)資料采用率或構(gòu)成比進(jìn)行描述,組間比較采用卡方檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)水準(zhǔn)與時(shí)間序列分析中的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、殘差檢驗(yàn)的檢驗(yàn)水準(zhǔn)一致,均為α=0.05。結(jié)果:1、2011-2015年長(zhǎng)春市累計(jì)報(bào)告手足口病病例11339例,年平均發(fā)病率29.56/10萬(wàn),重癥病例291例,死亡病例3例。各年度發(fā)病均呈現(xiàn)明顯的季節(jié)性特點(diǎn),峰值出現(xiàn)在7月份;長(zhǎng)春市手足口病的高發(fā)地區(qū)集中在南部,以汽車(chē)區(qū)和高新區(qū)為主,其他地區(qū)有不同程度的散發(fā),城區(qū)整體發(fā)病高于外縣(市)區(qū);疫情病例主要集中在0-5歲兒童(93.43%),男女發(fā)病比為1.48:1,散居兒童居多(79.88%)。2、2011-2015年發(fā)生291例手足口病重癥病例,發(fā)病率為0.76/10萬(wàn),其中2014年重癥病例最多,共發(fā)生133例,發(fā)病率為1.73/10萬(wàn)。時(shí)間分布特點(diǎn)與整體疫情基本保持一致,具有典型的季節(jié)特征。5年間重癥病例數(shù)外縣(市)區(qū)(175例)顯著高于城區(qū)(116例)。人群分布來(lái)看重癥病例中男性發(fā)病高于女性,男女發(fā)病比為1.69:1。各年度重癥病例均集中在1-3歲年齡組(244例),以散居兒童為主(243例),是重癥病例的主要發(fā)病群體。3、病原學(xué)結(jié)果顯示2011-2015年間,長(zhǎng)春市疾控中心實(shí)驗(yàn)室共檢測(cè)現(xiàn)住址為本市的病例標(biāo)本共2113份,占報(bào)告病例的18.63%,陽(yáng)性標(biāo)本1342份,陽(yáng)性率為63.51%。病原構(gòu)成以EV71為主(43.00%),其次為Cox A16(39.94%),其他腸道病毒(17.06%)最少,但其呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。經(jīng)卡方檢驗(yàn),不同性別間感染的腸道病毒類(lèi)型差異沒(méi)有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(c2=5.605,P=0.061),但不同年齡組間(c2=53.526,P0.001)、不同病例類(lèi)型間(c2=148.511,P0.001)感染的腸道病毒類(lèi)型差異有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年間重癥病例的病原學(xué)構(gòu)成主要以EV71為主。4、R語(yǔ)言時(shí)間序列分析結(jié)果顯示,ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12模型是預(yù)測(cè)長(zhǎng)春市手足口病短期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的最優(yōu)模型。2016年長(zhǎng)春市手足口病1-7月實(shí)際發(fā)病率與預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)病率基本吻合,1-7月的實(shí)際發(fā)病率均在預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)病率的95%置信區(qū)間范圍之內(nèi)。結(jié)論:1、長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病在時(shí)間分布上呈現(xiàn)鮮明的季節(jié)性特點(diǎn),主要集中在6-8月份;在地區(qū)分布上城區(qū)高于外縣(市)區(qū),高發(fā)病率地區(qū)集中在汽車(chē)區(qū)和高新區(qū);人群分類(lèi)上以散居兒童為主,年齡集中在0-5歲幼兒,男性居多。2、長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病重癥病例時(shí)間分布與整體疫情一致,具有季節(jié)性特征;人群分布以散居兒童為主,1-3歲組高發(fā),男性居多;外縣(市)區(qū)整體報(bào)告病例數(shù)高于城區(qū)。3、長(zhǎng)春市2011-2015年手足口病病原構(gòu)成以EV71為主,其次是Cox A16,其他腸道病毒比例最少,但呈現(xiàn)增多趨勢(shì)。4、對(duì)2011-2015年月發(fā)病率進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列分析,ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12模型可以較好地預(yù)測(cè)長(zhǎng)春市手足口病的短期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:The incidence of HFMD is our country legal class C infectious disease report of the highest number since 2008. The annual incidence of more than 1 million cases in 2014, more than 2 million 700 thousand cases of HFMD in China. Mainly occurred in children under 5 years old, especially the 1-3 age group was more likely to develop severe disease and in critical cases, serious impact on children's physical and mental health, to family and society also brought huge economic burden. HFMD pathogen species diversity, transmission complex, prone to a wide range of popularity in a short period of time, need to take specific measures to prevent and control. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of HFMD in 2011-2015 Changchun City, to analyze the epidemic characteristics, EV71 and Cox A16 characteristics and etiology of dominant strains, establish the model to predict the incidence and morbidity data, 2016 In order to verify, to provide reference for the prevention and control in the future. Methods: This study collected Changchun 2011-2015 HFMD epidemic monitoring data, using the method of descriptive epidemiology analysis on the overall distribution of three outbreaks and severe cases, using Mapinfo 9.5 software for different years HFMD incidence rate is described. The analysis of different time, region, epidemic characteristics between groups of hand foot and mouth disease; pathogen detection data to collate data using Excel 2016 software, makes a descriptive analysis of the distribution of pathogens; establish multiple seasonal ARIMA model using the R software, analyze and predict the short-term incidence trend of 2016 1-7 months. Statistical analysis was performed by SPSS 18 software, count data use rate or composition are described. The groups were compared by chi square test, inspection level analysis and time series in the flat Stability test, residual test examination standard, both alpha =0.05. results: 12011-2015 Changchun cumulative reported HFMD cases in 11339 cases, the average annual incidence rate of 29.56/10 million, 291 severe cases and 3 death cases. The annual incidence showed obvious seasonal characteristics, the peak appeared in July; Changchun hand foot and mouth disease in high incidence areas concentrated in the south, in the automotive and High-tech Zone, other regions are distributed in different degrees, the whole city was higher than that in the county (city) district; epidemic cases mainly concentrated in the 0-5 years old children (93.43%), the incidence of male and female ratio is 1.48:1, the majority of children (79.88%) of 291 cases HFMD cases occurred in.22011-2015 years, the incidence rate of 0.76/10 million, which in 2014 the most severe cases, a total of 133 cases, the incidence rate of 1.73/10 million. Time distribution characteristics and the overall situation remained the same, with the typical seasonal characteristics .5 between the number of severe cases outside the county (city) district (175) was significantly higher than that in urban areas (116 cases). The distribution of severe cases in male group was higher than that of female, male and female incidence ratio of 1.69:1. were concentrated in each year of severe cases in 1-3 age group (244 Cases), with children as the main (243 cases) that is the main pathogenesis of severe cases of.3 group, the pathogen results showed that during 2011-2015, the CDC laboratory Changchun total detection current address for the city a total of 2113 cases, accounting for 18.63% of the reported cases, 1342 specimens were positive, the positive rate of 63.51%. disease was the original form based on EV71 (43%), followed by Cox A16 (39.94%) and other enterovirus (17.06%) at least, but its growth trend. The chi square test, the difference of enterovirus type infection between different gender was not statistically significant (c2=5.605, P=0.061), but among different age groups (c2=53.526, P0.001), different types of cases Between (c2=148.511, P0.001) with statistically significant difference of enterovirus infection. A type mainly based EV71.4 case 2011-2015 years of severe Changchun the pathogen, R language time series analysis showed that the ARIMA (1,0,1) 12 (1,1,0) model is the best model for.2016 prediction Changchun, hand foot and mouth disease short-term development trend Changchun years of hand foot and mouth disease in 1-7 months the actual incidence and prediction of incidence with 1-7 months of actual incidence in predicting the incidence of 95% confidence interval range. Conclusion: 1, Changchun, 2011-2015 years of HFMD in distribution showed distinct seasonal characteristics, mainly concentrated in 6-8 months distribution in the region is higher than the city; the county (city) District, high incidence areas concentrated in the automotive and high-tech zone; population classification in scattered children mainly concentrated in the age of 0-5 years old children, male.2, Changchun 2011-2015 years of hand Foot and mouth disease severe cases of time distribution and overall epidemic consistent with seasonal characteristics; population distribution in scattered children. The age group of 1-3 in male; the county (city) district overall number of reported cases of higher than the city of.3, 2011-2015 of pathogen of HFMD in Changchun city which is dominated by EV71, followed by Cox A16, the proportion of other enteroviruses at least, but showed an increasing trend in.4, the time series analysis of 2011-2015 monthly incidence rate (1,0,1), ARIMA (1,1,0) 12 model can better predict the short-term trend of hand foot mouth disease Changchun.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R512.5;R181.3

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李佳萌,曾濤,王偉;ARIMA模型在天津港交通量預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];數(shù)理醫(yī)藥學(xué)雜志;2004年05期

2 張翼飛;陳洪;劉嶺;張彥琦;郭波濤;易東;;ARIMA季節(jié)乘積模型在腸道傳染病預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];激光雜志;2008年02期

3 武紅濤;;ARIMA模型在醫(yī)院出院患者預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];解放軍醫(yī)院管理雜志;2009年01期

4 周青;陳秋;葉小云;吳青松;;基于ARIMA模型的醫(yī)院門(mén)診量預(yù)測(cè)[J];中國(guó)病案;2011年01期

5 盧娟;楊春梅;宮占威;張紅霞;;ARIMA模型應(yīng)用于部隊(duì)病毒性肝炎預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)警分析[J];中華疾病控制雜志;2011年02期

6 李曉翠;高琴;謝和賓;童瑤;王樂(lè)三;;ARIMA模型在工傷職工人數(shù)分析中的應(yīng)用[J];實(shí)用預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué);2012年11期

7 張伯昕;李小芳;余毅震;;北京地區(qū)新生兒先天性甲狀腺功能低下癥發(fā)病率的ARIMA預(yù)測(cè)模型研究[J];中國(guó)優(yōu)生與遺傳雜志;2013年04期

8 楊召;葉中輝;尤愛(ài)國(guó);郭奕瑞;張肖肖;梁淑英;邢進(jìn);王重建;;乘積季節(jié)ARIMA模型在結(jié)核病發(fā)病率預(yù)測(cè)中應(yīng)用[J];中國(guó)公共衛(wèi)生;2013年04期

9 孫瑞華;湯旦林;;應(yīng)用ARIMA模型進(jìn)行醫(yī)院門(mén)診量、病床占用量的預(yù)測(cè)[J];中日友好醫(yī)院學(xué)報(bào);1993年02期

10 楊召;葉中輝;趙磊;薛慶元;梁淑英;王重建;;ARIMA-BPNN組合預(yù)測(cè)模型在流感發(fā)病率預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];中國(guó)衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì);2014年01期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前10條

1 ;A hybrid ARIMA-ANN model and its Learning Algorithm on Short-term Load Forecasting[A];第二十三屆中國(guó)控制會(huì)議論文集（下冊(cè)）[C];2004年

2 王建鋒;高歌;陳立凌;李紅美;張明芝;王艾麗;;ARIMA模型及其在江蘇省衛(wèi)技人員數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[A];中國(guó)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì)研究會(huì)第12屆學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集[C];2005年

3 李君華;王志堅(jiān);張立杰;陳雪;;基于小波理論及ARIMA模型的短期棉花價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)[A];中國(guó)棉花學(xué)會(huì)2012年年會(huì)暨第八次代表大會(huì)論文匯編[C];2012年

4 陳興榮;;ARIMA模型和GM(1,1)在我國(guó)白銀消費(fèi)需求預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用中的比較研究[A];第25屆全國(guó)灰色系統(tǒng)會(huì)議論文集[C];2014年

5 ;Double Trends Time Series Forecasting Using a Combined ARIMA and GMDH Model[A];Proceedings of 2010 Chinese Control and Decision Conference[C];2010年

6 劉軍;柴洪洲;陳軻;劉先冬;;ARIMA模型預(yù)報(bào)電離層VTEC研究[A];第一屆中國(guó)衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集（下）[C];2010年

7 ;Economic Design of Integrating SPC and APC with Quality Constraints[A];Proceedings of 2010 Chinese Control and Decision Conference[C];2010年

8 任家福;張f ;周宗放;;基于ARIMA和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型及應(yīng)用研究[A];第三屆（2008）中國(guó)管理學(xué)年會(huì)——技術(shù)與創(chuàng)新管理分會(huì)場(chǎng)論文集[C];2008年

9 ;Modeling Chronobiologic Data: An Introduction to Time Series Analysis[A];2004全國(guó)時(shí)間生物醫(yī)學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議論文集[C];2004年

10 ;Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Fuzzy-Neural[A];第二十六屆中國(guó)控制會(huì)議論文集[C];2007年

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前1條

1 ;基于數(shù)量化方法對(duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)[N];第一財(cái)經(jīng)日?qǐng)?bào);2009年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 梁佳琦;ARIMA模型同MAXENT模型在自然保護(hù)區(qū)內(nèi)口蹄疫疫情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警中的應(yīng)用研究[D];東北林業(yè)大學(xué);2015年

2 張海東;基于論壇的熱點(diǎn)話題識(shí)別與趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];上海師范大學(xué);2015年

3 雍永強(qiáng);基于ARIMA和BPNN的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型在血糖預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[D];鄭州大學(xué);2015年

4 張敏;基于ARIMA的組合模型問(wèn)題研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2015年

5 桂林;退耕還林與生態(tài)環(huán)境改善的關(guān)系研究與分析[D];西安建筑科技大學(xué);2015年

6 錢(qián)麗萍;基于ARIMA模型的兒童醫(yī)院門(mén)診量預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];蘇州大學(xué);2015年

7 于婷;基于ARIMA模型的股價(jià)的研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2015年

8 程浩;武漢第三產(chǎn)業(yè)總量時(shí)間序列研究[D];華中師范大學(xué);2015年

9 陳天舒;基于ARIMA與GPR組合模型的人民幣匯率預(yù)測(cè)[D];山東大學(xué);2015年

10 袁磊;基于ARIMA-LSSVM混合模型的股指預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號(hào)：1422150