本文選題：農(nóng)村信用社 + 系統(tǒng)性風險�。� 參考：《浙江工商大學》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：2008年從美國開始爆發(fā)的金融危機,引發(fā)了影響巨大的全球性經(jīng)濟危機和衰退,使得銀行系統(tǒng)性風險更加被人們所關注和重視。盡管在這一輪金融危機中,我國銀行業(yè)獨樹一幟,保持了平穩(wěn)健康運行,但是隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度的放緩、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型升級的加快、市場化改革的深入推進,銀行業(yè)系統(tǒng)性風險正在逐步積累,相應地,我國政府正在對銀行業(yè)系統(tǒng)性風險管理、金融穩(wěn)定、銀行市場化退出機制等方面開展積極的嘗試和探索。現(xiàn)有的銀行系統(tǒng)性風險研究文獻,絕大多數(shù)關注大銀行,主要聚焦在銀行“大而不能倒”(Too big to fail)的問題,對中小銀行特別是地位重要的農(nóng)村信用社關注不足,對農(nóng)村信用社地位重要“不可替代而不能倒”(Tooirreplaceabletofail)的問題研究不夠,因此,將研究視角拓展到中小銀行,對于管理和控制整個銀行業(yè)的系統(tǒng)性風險具有開拓性的意義。同時,農(nóng)村信用社作為傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)村小銀行,一方面在我國金融體系特別是農(nóng)村金融體系中具有特殊的系統(tǒng)性重要地位和作用,另一方面農(nóng)村信用社存在管理相對粗放、風險控制較為薄弱、應對市場變化手段不多等突出問題,使得其面臨“地位太重要不能倒”和“風險管理薄弱容易倒”的兩難問題,因此,開展農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險管理的研究,不僅對我國金融體系特別是農(nóng)村金融體系平穩(wěn)持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義,而且對整個經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展特別是農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展具有特殊意義。為了更為深入地研究農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險,本文按照“提出問題——理論準備——分析問題——提出對策——結論與展望”五個步驟,首先是提出農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險管理問題,其次對現(xiàn)有國內(nèi)外銀行系統(tǒng)性風險研究進行較為系統(tǒng)的回顧總結,然后從分析農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險特點和機理入手,對Z省農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險影響因素開展Logit面板實證分析,推導在凈額支付結算方式下農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險支付清算渠道傳染條件和過程,利用射陽農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行擠兌案例分析農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險聲譽傳染渠道,基于Z省農(nóng)村信用社及其轄內(nèi)農(nóng)村信用社的數(shù)據(jù)開展信用風險、利率風險和流動性風險壓力測試,對提出的問題進入較為深入的剖析,并在此基礎上提出了農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險的管理措施,最后加以總結,對下一步研究做出展望。本文的主要研究結論如下:第一,農(nóng)村信用社雖然單體機構規(guī)模不大,但是具有行業(yè)資產(chǎn)規(guī)模大、機構數(shù)量多、地位不可替代、風險管理薄弱、治理體系特殊等特點,是我國金融體系特別是農(nóng)村金融體系中另類的系統(tǒng)重要性銀行。與大型銀行不同,農(nóng)村信用社的系統(tǒng)性風險主要呈現(xiàn)農(nóng)村地區(qū)傳統(tǒng)小銀行的特點:一是信用風險與流動性風險突出,二是抵御風險能力較弱,三是農(nóng)村信用社機構之間風險關聯(lián)性較大,四是農(nóng)村信用社高風險機構仍然存在。第二,生產(chǎn)總值增長率、資本充足率、非利息收入比重、撥備覆蓋率、凈資產(chǎn)收益率的提高、行業(yè)管理制度數(shù)完備有助于減輕農(nóng)村信用社的系統(tǒng)性風險,而貸款資產(chǎn)比的提高則會加大農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險;其中資本充足率、非利息收入比重兩個指標對農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險影響大于其他5個指標;農(nóng)村信用社自身的微觀經(jīng)營指標對系統(tǒng)性風險的影響多于宏觀經(jīng)濟指標。第三,農(nóng)村信用社體系內(nèi)存在緊密的支付清算關系,清算支付渠道是農(nóng)村信用社風險傳染的重要渠道之一。在凈額支付結算方式下,當農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)中有機構發(fā)生危機而違約,且違約的資金比例大于α0(農(nóng)村信用社支付系統(tǒng)內(nèi)違約資金比例的最高值)時,由于系統(tǒng)中某些農(nóng)村信用社發(fā)生危機,其他健康的農(nóng)村信用社拆借行為更加謹慎,產(chǎn)生“惜貸”行為,使得發(fā)生危機的機構無法拆借到足夠的資金,進而給整個農(nóng)村信用社支付清算系統(tǒng)帶來更大的危機。第四,聲譽風險渠道是農(nóng)村信用社風險傳染的重要渠道之一,信息傳遞方式的改變和銀行業(yè)務交易方式的轉變正在沖擊農(nóng)村信用社傳統(tǒng)的擠兌方式;農(nóng)村信用社資產(chǎn)規(guī)模偏小、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量偏弱,個人儲蓄存款比重高、多為農(nóng)戶和集中在農(nóng)村地區(qū),農(nóng)村信用社信息在社區(qū)中相對透明與受關注度較高,農(nóng)村地區(qū)金融生態(tài)環(huán)境較差、非正規(guī)金融無序發(fā)展,農(nóng)村信用社具有較強的同質(zhì)性,機構之間互相傳染概率偏高,使得農(nóng)村信用社比一般銀行更加容易發(fā)生擠兌事件。第五,基于Z省農(nóng)村信用社及其轄內(nèi)9家農(nóng)村信用社的壓力測試發(fā)現(xiàn):從信用風險維度看,只有當不良貸款率上升到非常高的數(shù)值時,才會對Z省農(nóng)村信用社資本充足率產(chǎn)生較大的影響;制造業(yè)、批發(fā)和零售業(yè)的行業(yè)沖擊、小微企業(yè)和農(nóng)戶貸款的沖擊均能對Z省農(nóng)村信用社帶來重大影響。從利率風險維度看,存款利率上浮,貸款利率下降以及存款利率上浮和貸款利率下降兩者同步推進都能對Z省轄內(nèi)9家農(nóng)村信用社帶來重大影響。從流動性風險維度看,不良貸款上升的沖擊對Z省農(nóng)村信用社流動性壓力沖擊最大,股市分流存款影響次之,法定存款準備金率提高的影響最小;在不良貸款沖擊、股市分流存款、法定存款準備金率以及銀行間市場融資受限等制約共同作用下,輕度壓力和中度壓力的情況下Z省農(nóng)村信用社流動性仍然處于可控范圍之內(nèi),但是在嚴重壓力的情況下,Z省農(nóng)村信用社融資備付金率將低于3%,將處于比較危險的情況。第六,農(nóng)村信用社作為特殊的系統(tǒng)性重要銀行,其治理機制與一般大型銀行不同,不能簡單地套用而是應該有選擇性地采用大銀行的風險管理措施,應采用強化農(nóng)村信用社外部監(jiān)管、加強省聯(lián)社的行業(yè)管理和農(nóng)村信用社機構自我管理有機結合的方式。在外部監(jiān)管方面,一是加強日常監(jiān)管,主要包括事前預防和事中控制,既有一般銀行的共性,如建立健全風險處置的法律法規(guī),積極打造良好的金融生態(tài)環(huán)境,充分發(fā)揮存款保險制度的作用,強化機構的信息披露等,也有農(nóng)村信用社自身的特色,如加強對農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險的監(jiān)測和監(jiān)管,及時主動處置高風險的農(nóng)村信用社等。二是加強危機管理,屬于事后處置,主要包括建立恢復機制、處置機制和危機管理工作機制。在強化省聯(lián)社的行業(yè)管理方面,一方面是強化風險管理,具體又包括強化風險的防范和控制功能,建立農(nóng)村信用社風險互助機制和建立農(nóng)村信用社風險處置基金,另一方面是強化服務功能,主要包括豐富業(yè)務功能、強化科技支撐和加強軟實力建設等。在農(nóng)村信用社自身管理方面,推進全面風險管理、強化財務管理、突出資本管理在防控農(nóng)村信用社單體風險過程中非常重要。本文與以往的文獻相比,主要的改進和創(chuàng)新之處有以下四個方面:第一,系統(tǒng)性風險研究視角的拓展。首先,目前國內(nèi)外學者對銀行系統(tǒng)性風險的研究非常豐富,但是絕大多數(shù)研究都聚焦于大型銀行的研究,集中關注銀行“太大而不能倒”的問題,對中小銀行特別是農(nóng)村信用社在廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)“由于唯一性而不能倒”的問題關注不夠。其次,從單個機構看,農(nóng)村信用社是小銀行,但是從行業(yè)角度看,又屬于大銀行體系,其資產(chǎn)規(guī)模已經(jīng)超過中國工商銀行,機構數(shù)量超過全國銀行總數(shù)的一半,是一個目前被忽視的大銀行體系。最后,盡管目前也有對農(nóng)村信用社風險的研究,但是受數(shù)據(jù)可得性等影響,主要仍然停留對單家農(nóng)村信用社的較為簡單的研究,缺乏研究的整體性和系統(tǒng)性。基于以上考慮,本文嘗試從行業(yè)層面研究農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險,既是對銀行系統(tǒng)性風險研究的有益補充,也是對農(nóng)村信用社風險管理研究的深化和拓展。第二,系統(tǒng)性風險的界定和影響因素選擇。國際文獻在對銀行系統(tǒng)性風險研究過程中,由于國外經(jīng)歷了多輪金融危機,大多采用實際發(fā)生的銀行法律破產(chǎn)、清算或倒閉等開展實證研究,針對性非常強、非常直觀。自改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟金融處于快速發(fā)展上升過程中,包括農(nóng)村信用社在內(nèi)的銀行業(yè)整體發(fā)展較為健康,加上政府對銀行業(yè)在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中作用的重視,事實上為銀行提供了隱性擔保,即使有部分銀行出現(xiàn)資不抵債的情況(所有者權益小于或等于零),在日常經(jīng)營仍然表現(xiàn)為正常運行,并沒有發(fā)生大規(guī)模的銀行破產(chǎn)或倒閉,因此無法采用國外通行的法律破產(chǎn)定義。為了更好地研究農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險的影響因素,本文引入了經(jīng)濟破產(chǎn)的定義,即銀行雖然已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)資不抵債的情況,但是在政府隱性擔保的情況下,仍然在繼續(xù)運營,作為我國銀行業(yè)系統(tǒng)性風險研究的替代方法。在銀行系統(tǒng)性風險影響因素的選擇上,現(xiàn)有文獻既有對宏觀經(jīng)濟金融變量的研究,也有對銀行個體微觀經(jīng)營指標的分析,但是同時考慮宏觀、微觀變量的研究并不多。基于此,本文引入經(jīng)濟破產(chǎn)的定義來研究農(nóng)村信用社的系統(tǒng)性風險,并從宏觀經(jīng)濟金融和農(nóng)村信用社微觀經(jīng)營指標兩大方面入手,對影響農(nóng)村信用社系統(tǒng)性風險的因素作了較為深入的研究。第三,風險傳染的渠道�，F(xiàn)有很多文獻特別是國內(nèi)文獻對銀行系統(tǒng)性風險傳染主要集中于銀行間拆借市場,重點在分析大型銀行對其他銀行的影響,對小銀行之間特別是農(nóng)村信用社之間風險傳染關注非常少�；诖�,本文從農(nóng)村信用社機構之間存在較為密切的支付清算聯(lián)系和高度相似的品牌形象等角度著手,嘗試分析農(nóng)村信用社較為獨特的支付清算風險傳染渠道和擠兌聲譽風險傳染渠道,以進一步豐富現(xiàn)有風險傳染理論。第四,風險管理的維度。現(xiàn)有文獻對農(nóng)村信用社風險管理的維度,主要集中在兩個方面:農(nóng)村信用社的風險管理和農(nóng)村信用社的風險監(jiān)管。本文基于微觀審慎與宏觀審慎相結合的視角,圍繞監(jiān)管部門的外部監(jiān)管、省聯(lián)社的行業(yè)管理和農(nóng)村信用社自身的風險管理三個維度,既注重農(nóng)村信用社單體風險,也充分考慮農(nóng)村信用社行業(yè)總體風險,有利于從整體上防范和控制農(nóng)村信用社的系統(tǒng)性風險。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that began to break out from the United States in 2008 has caused a huge global economic crisis and recession, which made the systemic risk of the bank more concerned and paid attention to. Although in this round of financial crisis, China's banking industry has been unique and maintained a smooth and healthy transportation, but with the slowdown of economic development, the industry is turning. With the acceleration of the type upgrading and the deepening of the market-oriented reform, the systemic risk of the banking industry is gradually accumulating. Accordingly, our government is trying and exploring the systematic risk management of the banking industry, the financial stability, the banking market withdrawal mechanism and so on. Banks, mainly focusing on the problem of "Too big to fail", have not paid enough attention to the small and medium banks, especially the important rural credit cooperatives, and are not enough to study the issue of "irreplaceable but incapable" (Tooirreplaceabletofail) of the status of the rural credit cooperatives. Therefore, the research perspective is extended to the small and medium banks. The management and control of the systemic risk of the whole banking industry is of pioneering significance. At the same time, as a traditional rural small bank, the rural credit cooperatives have a special and systematic role in our financial system, especially in the rural financial system. On the other hand, the management of rural credit cooperatives is relatively extensive, and the risk control is more than that of the rural credit cooperatives. In order to solve the problem of weakness and not many means of market change, it faces the dilemma of "too important status and weak risk management" and "risk management is weak and easy to fall". Therefore, the study of systematic risk management of rural credit cooperatives is not only important to the stable and sustained development of our financial system, especially in the rural financial system. It is of special significance to the development of the whole economic and social development, especially in the rural economic and social development. In order to further study the systemic risk of the rural credit cooperatives, this paper, first of all, puts forward the rural credit cooperatives according to the five steps of "putting forward the problem - theoretical preparation - Analysis of the problem - the Countermeasures - conclusions and prospects". The problem of unified risk management, followed by a systematic review of existing domestic and foreign banks' systemic risk research, and then starting with the analysis of the systemic risk characteristics and mechanisms of rural credit cooperatives, the empirical analysis of Logit panel is carried out on the systemic risk factors of the rural credit cooperatives in Z Province, and the countryside is derived under the net payment settlement mode. The condition and process of the system of systematic risk payment and liquidation channels of credit cooperatives are used to analyze the transmission channels of systematic risk reputation of rural credit cooperatives in Sheyang rural commercial banks. Based on the data of the rural credit cooperatives and their rural credit cooperatives in Z Province, the credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risk pressure are tested. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the management measures of the systematic risk of rural credit cooperatives, and finally summarizes it and makes a prospect for the next step. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the rural credit cooperatives, although the scale of the monomer institutions are not large, has a large scale of industry assets, a large number of institutions, and the status of a large number of institutions. Irreplaceable, the risk management is weak, the management system is special and so on. It is an alternative system importance bank in our country's financial system, especially in the rural financial system. Unlike the large bank, the systemic risk of the rural credit cooperatives mainly presents the characteristics of the traditional small banks in the rural areas: first, the credit risk and liquidity risk are prominent, and the two is offset. The ability to resist risk is weak, three is that the risk association between the rural credit cooperatives is large, and the four is that the high risk institutions in the rural credit cooperatives still exist. Second, the growth rate of gross production, the capital adequacy ratio, the proportion of non interest income, the reserve coverage rate, the increase of net assets yield, and the complete number of industry management systems help to reduce the rural credit cooperatives. Systematic risk, and the increase of loan asset ratio will increase the systemic risk of rural credit cooperatives; the two indexes of capital adequacy ratio and non interest income proportion have greater impact on the systemic risk of rural credit cooperatives than the other 5 indicators, and the micro operating indexes of rural credit cooperatives have more influence on systemic risk than macroeconomic indicators. Third, there is a close relationship between payment and settlement in the system of rural credit cooperatives, and the liquidation of payment channels is one of the important channels for the risk contagion of rural credit cooperatives. In the net payment settlement, there is a default in the system of rural credit cooperatives when there is a crisis in the rural credit cooperative system, and the ratio of funds for breach of contract is greater than that of a 0 (the system of breach of contract in the payment system of the rural credit cooperatives. At the highest value of the gold ratio), because of the crisis in some rural credit cooperatives in the system, other healthy rural credit cooperatives are more prudent, producing a "reluctant loan" behavior, making the crisis institutions unable to borrow enough funds, and then bring a greater crisis to the whole rural credit cooperative payment and settlement system. Fourth, the reputation wind. The risk channel is one of the important channels for the risk contagion of the rural credit cooperatives. The change of the way of information transfer and the change of the way of the bank business transaction are impacting the traditional way of the run on the rural credit cooperatives; the rural credit cooperatives are small in size, the quality of assets is weak, the individual savings deposit ratio is high, and the farmers and rural areas are concentrated in the rural areas. The information of credit cooperatives is relatively transparent and highly concerned in the community, the financial ecological environment in rural areas is poor, the informal financial development is unordered, the rural credit cooperatives have strong homogeneity and the mutual transmission probability is high among institutions, which makes the rural credit cooperatives more prone to run the run events than the ordinary banks. Fifth, based on the rural credit of Z Province The pressure test of 9 rural credit cooperatives in the society and its jurisdiction found that, from the credit risk dimension, only when the bad loan rate rises to a very high value will have a great influence on the capital adequacy ratio of the rural credit cooperatives in Z province; the impact of the manufacturing industry, the wholesale and retail industry, the impact of the small and micro enterprises and the farmers' loans can all be on the Z province. From the interest rate risk dimension, the floating rate of deposit interest rate, the decline of the loan interest rate and the synchronous advance of the deposit interest rate rise and the loan interest rate decline can have a significant impact on the 9 rural credit cooperatives within the Z province. From the liquidity risk dimension, the impact of the rise of bad loans on the liquidity of the rural credit cooperatives in Z Province The impact of the pressure is the most, the stock market distributary deposit has the second effect, the increase of the reserve ratio is the least, and the liquidity of the rural credit cooperatives in Z province is still under the condition of the adverse loan impact, the stock market shunt deposit, the legal deposit reserve ratio and the interbank market financing restriction. Within the controllable range, however, in the case of serious pressure, the financing rate of the rural credit cooperatives in Z province will be less than 3%, and it will be in a relatively dangerous situation. Sixth, as a special and systematic important bank, the governance mechanism of the rural credit cooperatives is different from that of the general large banks, but it should not be simply used but the big banks should be selectively adopted. The measures of risk management should be strengthened by strengthening the external supervision of the rural credit cooperatives and strengthening the organic combination of the industry management of the Provincial Association and the self-management of the rural credit cooperatives. In the aspect of external supervision, one is to strengthen the daily supervision, including the prevention and the control in the event, which has the commonness of the general banks, for example, to establish and improve the risk disposal. Laws and regulations, actively create a good financial ecological environment, give full play to the role of the deposit insurance system, strengthen the information disclosure of institutions, and also have the characteristics of the rural credit cooperatives, such as strengthening the monitoring and supervision of the systematic risk of rural credit cooperatives, and timely and active disposal of high risk rural credit cooperatives. Two is to strengthen the crisis management, On the one hand, strengthening risk management, including strengthening the prevention and control function of risk, establishing risk mutual mechanism of rural credit cooperatives and establishing risk disposal fund for rural credit cooperatives, and establishing the risk disposal fund for rural credit cooperatives. Strengthening the service function, mainly including enriching business functions, strengthening the support of science and technology and strengthening the construction of soft power. In the management of rural credit cooperatives, it is very important to promote comprehensive risk management, strengthen financial management, and highlight the capital management in the prevention and control of the single risk process of rural credit cooperatives. The improvement and innovation are the following four aspects: first, the development of systematic risk research perspective. First, the domestic and foreign scholars are very rich in the research of banking systemic risk, but most of the research focuses on the research of large banks, focusing on the problem of "too big and unable to fall" on banks, especially for small and medium banks. The rural credit cooperatives have not paid enough attention to the problem of "uniqueness but cannot be inverted" in the vast rural areas. Secondly, from a single institution, the rural credit cooperatives are small banks, but from the view of the industry, they belong to the large bank system, and their assets have already exceeded the ICBC and the number of institutions exceeds half of the total number of the national banks. In the end, although there is a study on the risk of the rural credit cooperatives at the end of the year, it is affected by the availability of data and so on. It is still a simple study of the single rural credit cooperatives and lacks the integrity and systematicness of the research. Based on the above considerations, this paper tries to study the rural credit cooperatives from the industry level. The unified risk is not only a beneficial supplement to the research of the systematic risk of the bank, but also the deepening and expansion of the research on the risk management of the rural credit cooperatives. Second, the definition of systematic risk and the choice of the influencing factors. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic and financial development has been in the process of rapid development, and the overall development of the banking industry, including the rural credit cooperatives, is healthier, and the government attaches great importance to the role of the banking industry in the economic development, in fact, The bank provides a hidden guarantee. Even if some banks are insolvency (the owner's equity is less than or equal to zero), it is still functioning normally in the daily operation, and there is no large bank bankruptcy or bankruptcy, so it is impossible to adopt the foreign legal bankruptcy definition. In order to better study the rural credit cooperatives system. The influence factor of sexual risk, this article introduces the definition of economic bankruptcy, that is, although the bank has already appeared in the situation of insolvency, but under the circumstances of the government recessive guarantee, it still continues to operate as an alternative to the systematic risk research of the banking industry in our country. In the study of macroeconomic and financial variables, there is also an analysis of the micro operating indexes of individual banks, but there are not many studies on macro, micro variables. Based on this, this paper introduces the definition of economic bankruptcy to study the systematic risk of rural credit cooperatives, and from the macro economic and rural credit cooperatives micro management indicators two generous. The factors that affect the systemic risk of rural credit cooperatives are studied in depth. Third, the channel of risk contagion. Many existing literatures, especially domestic literature, mainly focus on the interbank lending market mainly for the systemic risk contagion of banks, focusing on the analysis of the impact of large banks on other banks, especially among small banks. On the basis of this, this paper tries to analyze the more unique channels of contagious payment and liquidation of rural credit cooperatives and the channel of risk contagion for the reputation of the rural credit cooperatives. Step enriches the existing risk contagion theory. Fourth. Dimensions of risk management. The main dimensions of risk management in rural credit cooperatives are the existing literature.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.35
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本文編號：1970693