本文選題：經(jīng)濟增長　切入點：大氣污染　出處：《中國地質大學(北京)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟快速增長,河北已成為我國環(huán)境透支特別是大氣環(huán)境破壞最為嚴重的地區(qū)。全面客觀評價河北省經(jīng)濟增長與大氣污染之間的影響關系,并對河北大氣污染的經(jīng)濟根源進行深層次探討,具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。全文共八章,按照“理論基礎-發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀-關系分析-對策建議”的邏輯思路展開。主要結論如下:1、河北經(jīng)濟增長以犧牲環(huán)境為代價。2000年以來河北經(jīng)濟快速增長,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構以重工業(yè)為主,能源消費結構中煤炭比重極大且能耗水平偏高。同期,大氣污染物排放量位居全國前列,排放強度高于全國平均水平,河北整體大氣環(huán)境不斷惡化。2、對河北經(jīng)濟增長與大氣污染關系的研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)工業(yè)廢氣排放與經(jīng)濟增長之間呈U型曲線,工業(yè)二氧化硫呈倒U型,工業(yè)煙粉塵排放呈N型,且都已越過拐點,若維持排放現(xiàn)狀,隨著經(jīng)濟增長,未來工業(yè)廢氣和工業(yè)煙粉塵的污染形勢將更為嚴峻,工業(yè)二氧化硫污染則會逐漸減輕。(2)現(xiàn)階段,工業(yè)廢氣處于經(jīng)濟緩慢增長而污染大幅增加的負脫鉤這一較差狀態(tài);工業(yè)二氧化硫處于污染隨經(jīng)濟增長而減輕的強脫鉤的理想狀態(tài);而工業(yè)煙粉塵由強脫鉤衰退到負脫鉤狀態(tài),這一變化與河北大氣霧霾加重的時間段吻合。3、河北大氣污染對經(jīng)濟增長具有負效應。廣義脈沖響應分析和方差分解表明河北大氣污染物排放量的增加不能顯著促進經(jīng)濟增長,反而以犧牲人們身體健康和整個社會福利的方式造成巨大的經(jīng)濟損失,保守估算2014年河北大氣污染造成的經(jīng)濟損失約占當年GDP的3.8%。因此,大氣環(huán)境問題已經(jīng)成為制約河北經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要“瓶頸”。4、河北經(jīng)濟增長對大氣污染具有持續(xù)顯著的促進作用,經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構和技術進步是大氣污染的主要影響因素。各污染物的反彈效應有所不同,工業(yè)二氧化硫的反彈效應為負,呈減量排放,技術治理較為成功;工業(yè)煙粉塵排放呈正反彈,體現(xiàn)了排放強度和排放總量指標的矛盾,說明在提升污染治理技術的同時,更需要關注排放量的控制。河北優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)中,近一半具有高耗能、高污染特性,在大力推動經(jīng)濟增長的同時,對大氣環(huán)境產(chǎn)生了巨大的破壞作用。有重點的治理和有選擇的發(fā)展優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè),既可以保證河北經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長,又能降低增長對大氣環(huán)境的負面效應,有利于河北經(jīng)濟增長與大氣環(huán)境的協(xié)調可持續(xù)發(fā)展。5、在上述分析的基礎上,從控制經(jīng)濟規(guī)模擴張速度、調整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、加快技術進步、側重優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)四個角度提出了河北經(jīng)濟與大氣環(huán)境協(xié)調發(fā)展的對策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth, Hebei has become the region with the most serious environmental overdraft, especially the atmospheric environmental damage. The comprehensive and objective evaluation of the relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Hebei Province, It is of great practical significance to probe into the economic origin of air pollution in Hebei Province. There are eight chapters in this paper. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Hebei's economic growth is at the expense of the environment. Since 2000, Hebei's economy has grown rapidly and its industrial structure has been dominated by heavy industry. The proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure is large and the level of energy consumption is on the high side. In the same period, the emissions of atmospheric pollutants are among the highest in the country, and the emission intensity is higher than the national average. The relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Hebei Province is studied. It is found that the curve between industrial exhaust gas emission and economic growth is U type, industrial sulfur dioxide is inverted U type, industrial smoke dust emission is N type. If we maintain the status quo of emissions, with economic growth, the pollution situation of industrial exhaust gas and industrial smoke dust will be even more severe in the future, and the pollution of industrial sulphur dioxide will gradually decrease at this stage. Industrial waste gas is in a poor state of negative decoupling, in which the economy grows slowly and pollution increases substantially; industrial sulfur dioxide is in the ideal state of strong decoupling that reduces pollution with economic growth; and industrial smoke dust declines from strong decoupling to negative decoupling. This change coincides with the time period when the atmospheric haze in Hebei is aggravated. The atmospheric pollution in Hebei has negative effect on economic growth. The generalized impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the increase of air pollutant emissions in Hebei can not promote economic growth significantly. On the contrary, huge economic losses were caused by sacrificing people's health and social welfare as a whole. It was conservatively estimated that in 2014, the economic losses caused by air pollution in Hebei accounted for about 3.8% of the GDP in that year. The problem of atmospheric environment has become an important "bottleneck" that restricts the sustainable development of Hebei's economy. Industrial structure and technological progress are the main influencing factors of air pollution. The rebound effect of each pollutant is different, the rebound effect of industrial sulfur dioxide is negative, the technical treatment is successful, the industrial smoke dust emission is positive rebound, It reflects the contradiction between the emission intensity and the total emission target, which shows that while upgrading the pollution control technology, we need to pay more attention to the control of the discharge quantity. Nearly half of the superior industries in Hebei Province have the characteristics of high energy consumption and high pollution. While vigorously promoting economic growth, it has had a huge damaging effect on the atmospheric environment. Key governance and selective development of superior industries can ensure steady economic growth in Hebei. It can also reduce the negative effects of growth on the atmospheric environment and be conducive to the coordinated and sustainable development of Hebei's economic growth and atmospheric environment. On the basis of the above analysis, we should control the speed of economic scale expansion, adjust the industrial structure, and speed up technological progress. The countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of Hebei's economy and atmosphere environment are put forward from the four angles of focusing on superior industry.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：X51;F127

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