本文關(guān)鍵詞： 新能源汽車(chē) 市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散 低碳交通 多Agent仿真　出處：《中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：全球氣候變化對(duì)世界各國(guó)提出了低碳發(fā)展的要求。交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)作為世界第二大碳排放行業(yè),其碳排放量超過(guò)世界碳排放總量的五分之一。到2030年交通碳排放量將以1.7%的年增長(zhǎng)率遞增,且發(fā)展中國(guó)家及經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)家的交通碳排放增長(zhǎng)率將會(huì)更高。為解決日益突出的燃油供求矛盾和環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題,世界主要汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)國(guó)紛紛將推廣新能源汽車(chē)作為發(fā)展低碳交通的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市化進(jìn)程的不斷推進(jìn),我國(guó)居民出行需求的日益增長(zhǎng),汽車(chē)產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)量迅猛提升,我國(guó)已連續(xù)7年位居世界第一。推廣新能源汽車(chē)是我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)能源安全、氣候變化、環(huán)境保護(hù)和汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的重要突破口。我國(guó)已頒布一系列新能源汽車(chē)政策規(guī)劃,涉及宏觀規(guī)劃、制造標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、配套設(shè)施建設(shè)、購(gòu)買(mǎi)補(bǔ)貼、扶持電價(jià)等諸多方面。政策的支持促進(jìn)了新能源汽車(chē)的發(fā)展壯大,也導(dǎo)致新產(chǎn)品推廣嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)政府扶持,市場(chǎng)的作用先天不足。隨著技術(shù)的日趨成熟,新能源汽車(chē)的推廣將必然由政府的財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼向市場(chǎng)機(jī)制過(guò)渡。如何有效地發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)的潛在力量,促進(jìn)新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)健康快速發(fā)展,這是我國(guó)“新經(jīng)濟(jì)”下的一個(gè)重要研究問(wèn)題。因此,關(guān)注我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)政策的新動(dòng)向,積極探討新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散中可能存在的有利及不利因素,運(yùn)用仿真的方法對(duì)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散進(jìn)行模擬,得出一個(gè)全方位考慮、多維度扶持的新能源汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策新思想,將有利于促進(jìn)我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)綠色發(fā)展,使其從依賴(lài)政府扶持的“政策市”轉(zhuǎn)向“大眾化消費(fèi)市”,早日達(dá)到我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)發(fā)展的宏偉戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)。本文首先以低碳交通為研究背景,對(duì)我國(guó)交通碳排放趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析,找出影響我國(guó)交通碳排放的主要因素；然后,通過(guò)對(duì)比分析國(guó)內(nèi)外新能源汽車(chē)的發(fā)展歷程與政策,根據(jù)我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的瓶頸,以創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散理論、社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論、消費(fèi)者行為理論為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散展開(kāi)較為系統(tǒng)、全面的研究,對(duì)影響我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散的參與主體進(jìn)行分析,進(jìn)而緊密結(jié)合我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)推廣面臨的實(shí)際問(wèn)題,構(gòu)建多類(lèi)產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)下新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散多Agent仿真模型,對(duì)我國(guó)純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)的擴(kuò)散進(jìn)行仿真,并利用仿真數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)新能源汽車(chē)替代傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)使用的節(jié)能減排效果進(jìn)行了估算；最后,得出我國(guó)推廣新能源汽車(chē)的啟示和政策建議。按照以上研究思路,在收集大量歷史數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用多種方法及技術(shù),得到的研究成果如下：(1)通過(guò)對(duì)低碳交通、新能源汽車(chē)、創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散、消費(fèi)者行為等相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的充分研究,可知新能源汽車(chē)的擴(kuò)散研究逐漸成為學(xué)者們關(guān)注的方向,但對(duì)于新能源市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散的研究十分鮮見(jiàn)；而運(yùn)用仿真預(yù)測(cè)手段,探索我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)發(fā)展由政府扶持轉(zhuǎn)向市場(chǎng)化的相關(guān)研究尚未見(jiàn)系統(tǒng)報(bào)道。(2)利用1996-2013年的歷史統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)我國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的能源消費(fèi)量和碳排放量進(jìn)行了計(jì)算,發(fā)現(xiàn)柴油、汽油的消耗是我國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸能源碳排放增長(zhǎng)的主要原因,且柴油、汽油的碳排放量呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)。運(yùn)用擴(kuò)展的交通碳排放Kaya恒等式和廣義費(fèi)雪指數(shù)法,對(duì)我國(guó)交通碳排放因素進(jìn)行分解,就我國(guó)交通碳排放增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)而言,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用最大,雖然能源強(qiáng)度、人口規(guī)模和交通強(qiáng)度在總體上呈現(xiàn)促進(jìn)作用,但作用小于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。因此,要發(fā)展低碳交通,推廣新能源汽車(chē)是我國(guó)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)走向“綠色發(fā)展”的必經(jīng)之路。(3)在對(duì)影響我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散的參與主體進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了多類(lèi)產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)下新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散多Agent仿真模型,結(jié)合未來(lái)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì),創(chuàng)建了消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)新能源汽車(chē)的動(dòng)機(jī)函數(shù),用以模擬消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)決策,并構(gòu)建小世界網(wǎng)絡(luò),模擬消費(fèi)者間的口碑效應(yīng)；利用NetLogo仿真平臺(tái),對(duì)我國(guó)2016-2022年新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)仿真和情景仿真,并對(duì)新能源汽車(chē)價(jià)格和使用便利性?xún)蓚�(gè)因素進(jìn)行了靈敏度分析。仿真結(jié)果顯示,新產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)入將加劇新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),有利于新能源汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散；且純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散優(yōu)于混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē),隨著時(shí)間的推移,純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)在市場(chǎng)上處于主導(dǎo)地位,2022年純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額為75%,混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額為25%；且在短期內(nèi),我國(guó)消費(fèi)者傾向于購(gòu)買(mǎi)價(jià)格較低的純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)；相對(duì)于使用便利性因素而言,價(jià)格因素對(duì)于新能源汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散影響更大。(4)利用我國(guó)2016-2022年新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散仿真得到的純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額和具體數(shù)量,通過(guò)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查獲得的消費(fèi)者每日出行距離數(shù)據(jù)及占比,以及傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)、混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)的綜合工況耗油量等數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)能源消費(fèi)碳排放計(jì)算公式,對(duì)我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)替代傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)下的節(jié)能減排效果進(jìn)行估算,得到2016-2022年新能源汽車(chē)的節(jié)能減排潛力,累計(jì)節(jié)油量為1 148.2萬(wàn)噸,碳排放累計(jì)減少量為1180.1萬(wàn)噸。(5)根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)外新能源汽車(chē)發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)給我國(guó)帶來(lái)的啟示,結(jié)合新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散的仿真結(jié)果,為我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)的推廣提出了一攬子政策建議。一是加強(qiáng)對(duì)新能源汽車(chē)的宣傳引導(dǎo),提高消費(fèi)者對(duì)新能源汽車(chē)的認(rèn)同感,重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)對(duì)年輕人的宣傳力度,擴(kuò)大政府采購(gòu)的示范效應(yīng),擴(kuò)大中小城市的試點(diǎn)范圍；二是提升新能源汽車(chē)的技術(shù)研發(fā),設(shè)立專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資金支持整車(chē)開(kāi)發(fā)和品牌創(chuàng)建,開(kāi)發(fā)純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)集成仿真技術(shù)平臺(tái),成立動(dòng)力電池關(guān)鍵技術(shù)攻關(guān)聯(lián)盟,成立驅(qū)動(dòng)電機(jī)和整車(chē)控制系統(tǒng)聯(lián)盟,大力發(fā)展國(guó)際技術(shù)和產(chǎn)業(yè)化合作；三是完善新能源汽車(chē)的充電設(shè)施建設(shè),加快充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施體系建設(shè),加強(qiáng)配套電網(wǎng)保障能力,推進(jìn)充電標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新；四是充分發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)的力量,提升消費(fèi)者滿(mǎn)意度,鼓勵(lì)新能源汽車(chē)制造企業(yè)間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與合作,破除新能源汽車(chē)推廣中的地方保護(hù),完善新能源汽車(chē)準(zhǔn)入管理規(guī)則,特別是對(duì)低價(jià)純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)培育；五是完善我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)的扶持政策,探索適合國(guó)情的扶持政策模式,完善市場(chǎng)激勵(lì)機(jī)制,擴(kuò)大限制政策應(yīng)用范圍,搭建新能源汽車(chē)技術(shù)研發(fā)平臺(tái),運(yùn)用稅收手段擴(kuò)大新能源汽車(chē)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。應(yīng)對(duì)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展中的能源與環(huán)境危機(jī),我國(guó)正大力推廣新能源汽車(chē)替代傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē),促進(jìn)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型與升級(jí),并將此作為國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略。在市場(chǎng)培育期,政府為新能源汽車(chē)發(fā)展提供大量扶持政策,但隨著技術(shù)的不斷成熟,購(gòu)買(mǎi)補(bǔ)貼將退出。若能克服從依賴(lài)政府的“政策市”走向“大眾化消費(fèi)市”的發(fā)展瓶頸,我國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)的發(fā)展將進(jìn)一步升級(jí),最終實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)家制定的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)。本文運(yùn)用仿真的方法對(duì)新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)散進(jìn)行模擬,找到了未來(lái)市場(chǎng)將向低價(jià)格、純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)發(fā)展的方向。結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)際情況,提出一個(gè)全方位考慮、多維度扶持的新能源汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展新思想,此成果有望在新能源汽車(chē)“新經(jīng)濟(jì)”的市場(chǎng)發(fā)展中做出突破性的貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Global climate change presents low carbon development requirements for countries around the world. The transportation industry as the world's second largest carbon emission industries, its carbon emissions exceed world carbon emissions by 2030 1/5. Traffic carbon emissions will increase at an annual growth rate of 1.7%, and the traffic carbon emissions in developing countries and countries with economies in transition the growth rate will be higher. In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of fuel and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, the world's major automobile producing countries will have the promotion of new energy vehicles as a national strategy for the development of low carbon transport. With the rapid development of economy, city changes process, the increasing travel demand of residents in China, production and sales the automobile is increased rapidly, China has 7 consecutive years ranked first in the world. The promotion of new energy vehicles is to deal with China's energy security, climate change, environmental protection and the transformation and upgrading of key automobile industry To be a breakthrough. China has promulgated a series of new energy vehicle policy planning, including macro planning, manufacturing standards, facilities, purchase subsidies, price support and other aspects. Policy support to promote the development of new energy vehicles and growth, also leads to the promotion of new products depends heavily on government support, the role of the market. With the technology of congenitally deficient matures, the promotion of new energy vehicles will be bound by the government's financial subsidies to the market mechanism in transition. How to effectively play the potential power of the market, promote the healthy and rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, it is an important problem in China's "new economy". Therefore, attention to the new trend of new energy automobile policy in our country, and actively explore new energy automobile market diffusion may exist in the favorable and unfavorable factors, using the simulation method of market diffusion simulation, obtained a comprehensive test Consider the new ideas of industrial policy of new energy vehicles multidimensional support, will help promote the green development of China's new energy automotive industry, the dependence on government support "policy market" to "mass consumption" as soon as possible to reach the grand strategic objective of China's new energy vehicle development. Firstly, with low carbon traffic as the research background, the traffic trend of carbon emissions in China are analyzed, and found out the main factors affecting China's traffic carbon emissions; then, through the comparative analysis of domestic and international development of new energy vehicles and policies, according to the bottleneck of China's new energy vehicle market development, innovation product diffusion theory, social network theory, consumer based on the theory of behavior, China's new energy vehicle market diffusion has made a systematic, comprehensive research on the main influence in China's new energy vehicle market diffusion is analyzed, and then closely According to the actual problems in the promotion of new energy vehicles in China, constructing the Agent simulation model of the new energy vehicle market diffusion products competition, to simulate the diffusion of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, and using the simulation data of energy saving and emission reduction effect of traditional car use of new energy vehicles are estimated instead; finally the new energy vehicles, and some policy suggestion in China. According to the above research, based on collecting a large number of historical data, using a variety of methods and techniques, the research results are as follows: (1) through the transportation of low carbon, new energy vehicles, the diffusion of innovation products, a thorough literature study consumer behavior. The research shows that the diffusion of new energy vehicles have gradually become the scholars pay close attention to the direction, but the study on the new energy market diffusion is very rare and the use of simulation and prediction method, To explore the related research into the market by the government to support the development of new energy vehicles in China have not been reported. (2) using the historical statistical data of 1996-2013, the energy consumption of China's transportation industry and carbon emissions were calculated and found that diesel, gasoline consumption is the main reason for China's transportation energy carbon emissions growth and carbon emissions of diesel, gasoline shows an increasing trend. The use of traffic carbon emissions Kaya identities and the generalized Fisher index method is extended, to decompose the factors of traffic carbon emissions in China, traffic of China's carbon emissions growth, promote economic growth, while energy intensity the size of the population, and traffic strength has a role in promoting the overall, but the effect is less than the economic growth. Therefore, to develop low-carbon transportation, promotion of new energy vehicles is China's automobile industry to the "green development" The only way which must be passed. (3) based on the participation of China's new energy vehicle market diffusion analysis, build a multi Agent simulation model of the new energy vehicle market diffusion products competition, combined with the future trend of market development, motivation function creates consumers to buy new energy vehicles, used to simulate the consumer purchase decision the construction and Simulation of small world network, word-of-mouth among consumers; using the NetLogo simulation platform, the 2016-2022 of our country in the new energy vehicle market based simulation and scenario simulation, and the two factors of the price of new energy vehicles and the convenience of using the sensitivity analysis. The simulation results show that the new product will increase the new energy vehicle market competition, is conducive to the new energy vehicle market diffusion; and the pure electric vehicle market diffusion is better than that of hybrid vehicles, with the passage of time, pure The electric vehicle is in the leading position in the market in 2022, pure electric vehicle market share of 75%, hybrid car market share of 25%; and in the short term, China's consumers tend to buy pure electric car prices lower; compared with the convenience of using factors, price factors for the new energy vehicle market diffusion effect more. (4) the use of 2016-2022 in our country new energy vehicle market diffusion simulation of the pure electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle market share and the specific number, obtained through a questionnaire survey of consumers daily travel distance data and accounting, as well as traditional cars, hybrid cars comprehensive fuel consumption data according to the condition. Carbon emissions from energy consumption calculation formula for China's new energy vehicles to replace conventional cars under the effect of energy saving and emission reduction estimates, energy saving of new energy vehicles 2016-2022 reduction Discharge potential, total fuel capacity of 11 million 482 thousand tons, the cumulative reduction in carbon emissions amounted to 11 million 801 thousand tons. (5) according to the domestic and foreign new energy vehicle development experience brings inspiration for China auto market, with the simulation result, the diffusion of new energy, a package of proposals for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China. One is to strengthen guide for new energy vehicles, propaganda, improve the consumers of new energy vehicles identity, strengthen the focus on young people's propaganda, expand the demonstration effect of government procurement, expand the scope of small and medium-sized city; the two is to enhance the technical research and development of new energy vehicles, set up special funds to support the vehicle development and brand building, the development of simulation platform the technology of pure electric vehicle power battery was integrated, the key technology alliance, set up the drive motor and the control system of vehicle alliance, the development of international technology and industrial cooperation; three Perfect the construction of charging facilities for new energy vehicles, speeding up the construction of charging infrastructure system, strengthen the protection ability of supporting grid, charging to promote standardization and innovation; four is to give full play to market forces, enhance consumer satisfaction, competition and cooperation to encourage new energy automobile manufacturing enterprise, get rid of the new energy vehicles to promote the protection of place. Improve the access management rules of new energy vehicles, especially for the low price of pure electric vehicle market; the five is to improve China's new energy vehicle support policies, explore conditions for the policy support mode, perfecting market incentive mechanism, expand the scope of application of restrictive policies, build new energy automotive technology research and development platform, the use of tax means to expand new energy the car competitive advantage. The energy and environmental crisis in the development of automobile industry, China is vigorously promote new energy vehicles to replace the traditional automobile, promoting In the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, and this as a national strategy. In the market cultivation period, the government provides significant support policies for the development of new energy vehicles, but as the technology matures, the purchase subsidies will exit. If we can overcome from reliance on government "policy market" to "the bottleneck of the development of popular consumer city" the development of new energy vehicles in China will be further upgraded, ultimately to achieve the strategic objectives formulated by the state. This paper uses the simulation method of the new energy automobile market diffusion simulation, find the future market to the low price, pure electric vehicle development direction. Combined with China's actual situation, put forward an all-round consideration the new idea of development of multidimensional support of the new energy vehicle market, this achievement is expected to make a breakthrough in the new energy vehicles of the "new economy" in the development of the market.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.471
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本文編號(hào)：1460134