發(fā)布時間：2018-01-21 03:40

  本文關鍵詞： 碳排放 能源消費因素 進出口貿易因素 DSGE政策模擬　出處：《北京科技大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：現階段,人類活動導致二氧化碳排放增加,影響社會經濟發(fā)展已是國際社會共識。作為世界最大二氧化碳排放國,同時也是最大的能源消耗國,我國在平衡社會經濟發(fā)展與碳排放的事業(yè)上任重而道遠。政府亟需了解影響我國碳排放的主要因素并對癥下藥,制定合理、科學的碳經濟政策。本文在我國近20年的生產數據和投入產出數據基礎上,以碳排放影響因素和碳經濟政策為研究對象,構建了在技術沖擊下碳經濟政策對碳排放影響的動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型,并運用該模型模擬了未征收碳稅和征收碳稅情況下對經濟發(fā)展的影響。本文的主要研究內容和創(chuàng)新點如下：(1)通過LMDI分析了我國工業(yè)能源消費因素對碳排放的影響,結果表明我國碳排放迅速增加的主要原因是經濟增長周期的波動和工業(yè)生產總值的增加。而根本原因是能源結構總體上沒有得到改善,各種清潔能源的使用率較低,主要能源消耗依然以煤炭為主。利用投入產出法對我國居民近30年來生活用能碳排放的測算,定量描述了我國生活用能的基本狀況。目前來看,我國居民生活用能碳排放總體處于較低水平,居民生活用能的能源結構有待于進一步改善。從居民消費品載能碳排放的角度來看,此部分的碳排放規(guī)模逐年上升,但占排放總量的比重逐年下降,并且排放增速遠低于消費價值量增速。本文從間接碳排放的角度研究居民消費品的載能碳排放,比起直接的碳排放研究,更為全面地描述了居民生活用能對碳排放的影響。(2)通過投入產出法利用中國投入產出表和海關最新數據,分析了中國進出口貿易中隱含碳排放問題。結果表明中國是隱含碳排放的進出口大國,隨著對外貿易逐漸活躍中國二氧化碳排放量也逐年上升。平均30%左右的總進口排放是為了再出口需求,實際用于國內自身消費需求的進口排放平均為各年總排放的75%左右,從絕對進口排放量看,實際進口排放和進口再出口排放均在不斷增加。在經濟全球化加速推進的背景下,隨著中國在國際分工中的地位的改變,中國因生產排放的碳量遠大于因消費排放的碳量,而且2002年中國加入WTO之后,中國出口碳排放的增速尤其迅猛。(3)本章主要通過DSGE模型進行政策模擬,分別對未征收碳稅的經濟環(huán)境和征收碳稅的經濟環(huán)境進行了碳經濟政策的模擬,把勞動力市場這一因素加入到理論模型中。經過模擬發(fā)現未征收碳稅的經濟環(huán)境下,在面對技術沖擊,碳排放盡管增長率是下降的,但增長率一直處于正的方向；征收碳稅的經濟環(huán)境下,其碳排放增長率均小于沒有加入碳稅的碳排放增長率,即征收碳稅有利于降低碳排放增長速度,最后存在一個碳排放的穩(wěn)態(tài),即碳排放存在動態(tài)收斂的趨勢。最優(yōu)碳稅值為75.5元／噸,政府實施該碳稅可使得政府的減排經濟成本最小。
[Abstract]:At present, human activities lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions, which affect the social and economic development of the international community consensus. As the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, but also the largest energy consumer. China has a long way to go in balancing social and economic development and carbon emissions. The government urgently needs to understand the main factors that affect carbon emissions in China and formulate reasonable solutions. Based on the production data and input-output data of nearly 20 years in China, this paper focuses on the factors affecting carbon emissions and the carbon economy policy. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of carbon economic policy on carbon emissions under the impact of technology is constructed. The model is used to simulate the impact on economic development without and without carbon tax. The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: 1). The effects of industrial energy consumption factors on carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI. The results show that the main reasons for the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China are the fluctuation of economic growth cycle and the increase of industrial GDP, while the fundamental reason is that the overall energy structure has not been improved. The utilization rate of all kinds of clean energy is low, and the main energy consumption is still coal. The carbon emission from domestic energy consumption has been measured by input-output method in the past 30 years. Quantitative description of the basic situation of energy use in China. At present, the living energy carbon emissions of Chinese residents are generally in a low level. The energy structure of household energy needs to be further improved. From the perspective of household consumer energy carbon emissions, this part of the scale of carbon emissions increased year by year, but the proportion of total emissions decreased year by year. And the growth rate of emissions is far lower than the growth rate of consumption value. This paper studies the energy carbon emissions of consumer goods from the perspective of indirect carbon emissions, compared with the direct carbon emissions research. A more comprehensive description of the impact of household energy use on carbon emissions. 2) through the input-output method to use China's input-output table and the latest customs data. This paper analyzes the problem of implied carbon emissions in China's import and export trade, and the results show that China is a big import and export country with implied carbon emissions. China's carbon dioxide emissions have been rising year by year as foreign trade has become more active. The average total import emission of about 30% is for re-export demand. The actual import emissions used for domestic consumption demand averaged about 75% of the total emissions per year, from the perspective of absolute import emissions. Under the background of accelerating economic globalization, China's position in the international division of labor has changed. China's carbon emissions from production are much larger than those from consumption, and after China joined the WTO in 2002. China's export carbon emissions growth is particularly rapid. 3) this chapter mainly through the DSGE model for policy simulation. The economic environment without carbon tax and the economic environment with carbon tax are simulated respectively. The labor market factor is added to the theoretical model. After simulation, it is found that in the economic environment without carbon tax, in the face of technological shock, carbon emissions although the growth rate is declining. But the growth rate has been in a positive direction; In the economic environment of carbon tax, the growth rate of carbon emissions is smaller than that without carbon tax, that is, carbon tax is conducive to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions, and finally there is a steady state of carbon emissions. The optimal value of carbon tax is 75.5 yuan / ton, and the economic cost of emission reduction can be minimized by the implementation of the carbon tax by the government.
【學位授予單位】：北京科技大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X321;F124.5

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