本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)影子銀行的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)及監(jiān)管研究　出處：《東北師范大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：2008年由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)所引發(fā)的全球性金融危機(jī)給美國(guó)的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)帶來了史無前例的沉重沖擊,這種巨大的負(fù)面影響也波及到了世界范圍內(nèi)大多數(shù)的國(guó)家和地區(qū)。當(dāng)各國(guó)政府、國(guó)際組織和國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者們對(duì)此次危機(jī)追根溯源時(shí),影子銀行作為危機(jī)的主要幕后推手之一開始暴露在人們的視線之內(nèi),影子銀行這個(gè)游離于監(jiān)管之外的灰色地帶迅速引起了全球的關(guān)注,成為國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域。由于自身的制度環(huán)境和金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展階段等因素,中國(guó)受到金融危機(jī)的沖擊并不嚴(yán)重,但是日益擴(kuò)大的金融總規(guī)模、漸趨完善的金融市場(chǎng)體系、不斷多元化和綜合化的金融經(jīng)營(yíng)和發(fā)展,使得傳統(tǒng)的社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了較大的變化,在社會(huì)融資規(guī)模中人民幣貸款所占的比重不斷下降,銀行體系之外的融資渠道所產(chǎn)生的作用已經(jīng)越來越明顯�；谟白鱼y行對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)可能產(chǎn)生的不確定性影響,以及美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)的前車之鑒,我們有必要將中國(guó)影子銀行的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)及監(jiān)管納入到一個(gè)框架中進(jìn)行整理了解與研究。因此,本文的研究正當(dāng)其時(shí)。緒論部分主要包括此論文的研究背景與研究意義、研究思路與研究?jī)?nèi)容,研究方法,論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)以及不足。正文分為四個(gè)部分,共六章。第一部分是第一章,系統(tǒng)闡述了影子銀行定義、理論基礎(chǔ)與文獻(xiàn)綜述。陳述了影子銀行的中外定義,對(duì)影子銀行有一個(gè)初步的認(rèn)知;然后分別研究了約束誘導(dǎo)理論、規(guī)避型金融創(chuàng)新理論、技術(shù)型金融創(chuàng)新理論、交易成本說等金融創(chuàng)新理論,金融中介“舊論”、新古典主義金融中介理論、現(xiàn)代金融中介理論等金融中介理論,麥金農(nóng)和肖的金融自由化、麥金農(nóng)和肖的理論擴(kuò)展等金融自由化理論以及監(jiān)管套利理論,為本文的選題和研究提供了理論上的支持;并對(duì)研究影子銀行定義、范圍、影響和監(jiān)管的國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述,綜合比對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)影子銀行的研究情況,指出研究中的不足。第二部分是第二章,研究了中國(guó)影子銀行的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,在具有中國(guó)特色的影子銀行定義基礎(chǔ)上,給出了中國(guó)影子銀行的識(shí)別標(biāo)準(zhǔn),分析了中國(guó)影子銀行的構(gòu)成范圍及運(yùn)行方法,估算出影子銀行的大致規(guī)模,分析了影子銀行的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。第三部分是第三章和第四章,也是本文的研究重點(diǎn)與難點(diǎn)。第三章是中國(guó)影子銀行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的理論分析,這里主要選取了可以觀測(cè)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,以及影子銀行對(duì)其影響較大的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,包括貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率、儲(chǔ)蓄、實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通貨膨脹五個(gè)角度來討論中國(guó)影子銀行的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。伴隨著融資規(guī)模的迅速壯大,中國(guó)影子銀行體系對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響也越來越大,主要表現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面:首先,影子銀行對(duì)狹義的貨幣乘數(shù)造成了扭曲,弱化了傳統(tǒng)銀行的貨幣創(chuàng)造效果,而且影子銀行本身具有信用創(chuàng)造機(jī)制,能夠創(chuàng)造廣義的流動(dòng)性,加快貨幣的流通速度,多方面共同作用影響貨幣供應(yīng)量。其次,我國(guó)影子銀行的出現(xiàn)加速了利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程,給傳統(tǒng)的銀行儲(chǔ)蓄業(yè)務(wù)帶來了一定的挑戰(zhàn)。再次,影子銀行擴(kuò)寬了融資渠道,有助于優(yōu)化實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的投資結(jié)構(gòu),并能夠募集閑置資金、增強(qiáng)資金流動(dòng)性,解決了部分中小微企業(yè)融資難的問題;但同時(shí)影子銀行也增加了融資成本,使得許多資金流向房地產(chǎn)、“兩高一低”等部分受限制行業(yè),易使經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)“空心化”,影響經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化,加劇實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)積聚。最后,影子銀行可以通過影響貨幣供應(yīng)量、影響融資成本、影響供需均衡來影響物價(jià)水平,造成通貨膨脹。第四章是中國(guó)影子銀行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的實(shí)證分析。構(gòu)建Var向量自回歸模型,通過格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解來量化影子銀行對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的具體影響,分析了中國(guó)影子銀行對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量、居民儲(chǔ)蓄、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、全社會(huì)固定投資和通貨膨脹的影響,并得出影子銀行短期內(nèi)會(huì)影響貨幣供應(yīng)量、引起物價(jià)水平的強(qiáng)烈波動(dòng),中長(zhǎng)期會(huì)影響居民儲(chǔ)蓄,長(zhǎng)期會(huì)增加全社會(huì)固定投資、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)結(jié)論。第四部分是第五章和第六章。分析過影子銀行的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),知道影子銀行不勢(shì)必會(huì)引起系統(tǒng)性金融危機(jī),影子銀行對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響既有積極的一面,也有消極的一面,是一把“雙刃劍”。在對(duì)影子銀行進(jìn)行監(jiān)管的時(shí)候,要趨利避害,既不能放任不管,也不能全部否認(rèn)。所以第四部分根據(jù)對(duì)影子銀行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的理論分析和實(shí)證分析,及實(shí)證分析所得到的結(jié)論,將對(duì)影子銀行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的監(jiān)管分為短期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)監(jiān)管和長(zhǎng)期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)監(jiān)管。在第五章里,針對(duì)影子銀行短期會(huì)影響貨幣供應(yīng)量、造成物價(jià)劇烈波動(dòng)的消極影響,提出了擴(kuò)大貨幣供應(yīng)量統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑,改進(jìn)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制、完善貨幣政策調(diào)控工具等完善貨幣政策監(jiān)管框架的意見,并指出應(yīng)該建立多元化融資渠道、規(guī)范影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)、為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)保駕護(hù)航的監(jiān)管措施。第六章針對(duì)影子銀行的長(zhǎng)期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),以及為了防范影子銀行產(chǎn)生系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能,提出了構(gòu)建中國(guó)影子銀行宏觀審慎監(jiān)管框架,建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制和信息披露制度,加強(qiáng)對(duì)影子銀行的全面監(jiān)管,引導(dǎo)影子銀行體系健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In 2008 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis brought great impact to the There was no parallel in history. U.S. real economy and financial market, the negative impact of this great also spread to most countries and regions in the world. When governments, international organizations and scholars at home and abroad to the crisis back, as the shadow banking one of the main driving force behind the crisis has exposed within the line of sight of people, the gray area free from regulation of the shadow banking quickly attracted global attention, become the focus of the field of academic research at home and abroad. Due to its institutional environment and financial market development stage and other factors, China by the impact of the financial crisis is not serious, but the total size of the expanding finance, gradually improve the financial market system, constantly diversified and integrated financial management and The development of the society, the traditional financing structure has changed greatly, the RMB in the scale of social financing loans accounted for the proportion of declining, resulting financing channels outside the banking system has become more and more obvious. The effect of shadow banking may produce the macroeconomic uncertainty based on, and from the US subprime mortgage crisis. It is necessary for us to macroeconomic effect and regulation of the shadow banking Chinese into a framework to organize the understanding and research. Therefore, this paper studies the right time. The introduction mainly includes the thesis research background and research significance, research ideas and research content, research methods, innovations and deficiencies. The text is divided into four parts, a total of six chapters. The first part is the first chapter, elaborated the definition of the shadow banking system, the theoretical basis and literature review. The statement of shadow banking The definition of Chinese and foreign, have a preliminary understanding of the shadow banking; then study the constraint induced aversion theory, financial innovation theory, innovation theory and technology finance, said the transaction cost theory of financial innovation, financial intermediaries "old theory, new classical financial intermediary theory, the modern theory of financial intermediation theory of financial intermediation Mackinnon and Shaw, financial liberalization, Mackinnon and Shaw's theory expansion theory of financial liberalization and regulatory arbitrage theory, provides the theoretical support for the title and research; and to study the shadow banking definition, scope, effect and regulation of the domestic and foreign literature review, comprehensive comparison at home and abroad research on shadow banking, pointed out the deficiency in the research. The second part is the second chapter, this paper studies the development status of the shadow banking Chinese, with Chinese characteristics of shadow banking based on the definition, to The identification standard of the shadow banking China, analyzes the scope of the shadow banking Chinese and operation method, to estimate the approximate size of the shadow banking, analyzes the development trend of shadow banking. The third part is the third chapter and the fourth chapter, the research focus and also the difficulty of this paper. The third chapter is the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking Chinese the theory here mainly selected macroeconomic variables can be observed, and the shadow banking on the effects of macroeconomic variables is large, including money supply, interest rates, savings, five aspects of real economic growth and inflation to discuss the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking China. Along with the rapid growth of the scale of financing, influence Chinese shadow banking system on the macro economy is also growing, mainly in the following aspects: first, the shadow banking on the narrow money multiplier has created distortions, The weakening of the creation effect of traditional banking and shadow banking currency itself has the credit creation mechanism, to create liquidity generalized, accelerate the velocity of currency circulation, many factors influence the money supply. Secondly, China's shadow banking has accelerated the process of interest rate marketization, which brings great challenges to the traditional bank the savings business. Once again, the shadow banking to broaden the financing channels, help to optimize the investment structure of the real economy, and can raise idle funds, enhance liquidity, solve the financing problem of some small and micro enterprises; but at the same time, the shadow banking also increased the cost of financing, many real estate capital flows, "a high low and some restricted industries, easy to make the" hollowing out "of the economy, economic structure adjustment and optimization, increased accumulation of economic risk entities. Finally, through the shadow banking The impact of money supply, financing cost, influence the balance of supply and demand affect price level and inflation. The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking Chinese. Construction of Var vector autoregressive model, through the Grainger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to quantify the specific macroeconomic indicators of shadow banking impact analysis the shadow banking China on money supply, household savings, GDP, total fixed investment and the impact of inflation, and the shadow banking in the short term will affect the money supply caused by strong fluctuations in the price level, in the long term will affect the residents of long-term savings, will increase the total social fixed investment, the relevant conclusions to promote economic growth the fourth part is the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. To analyze the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking, shadow banking will not know potential causes The financial crisis, the effect of shadow banking on the macro economy has both positive and negative side, is a "double-edged sword". At the time, supervision of shadow banking Qulibihai, neither laissez faire, also cannot deny all. So the fourth part according to the theoretical analysis and Empirical Analysis on the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking, and the conclusions obtained by the empirical analysis, the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking supervision is divided into short-term macroeconomic effects and long-term macroeconomic effects of regulatory supervision. In the fifth chapter, the shadow banking will affect short-term money supply, the negative effect caused by price volatility, put forward to expand the money supply statistics, improve the conduction mechanism of monetary policy and suggestions to improve the monetary policy tools to improve the regulatory framework of monetary policy, and points out that we should establish a diversified financing Channel, shadow banking norms, the real economy escort regulatory measures. In the sixth chapter, the long-term macroeconomic effects for the shadow banking, as well as possible in order to prevent the shadow banking system risk, put forward the construction of the shadow banking China macro Prudential framework, establish a risk warning mechanism and information disclosure system, strengthen the comprehensive supervision the shadow banking, and guide the healthy development of the shadow banking system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.3

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